I would imagine there are some replicability issues... 

Love the post 🤩

Lead alliance could so go for this

I don't think she's saying that people shouldn't think and plan responses, I think it's more that endless naval gazing about timelines and rapidly shifting responses isn't the most useful response

Thanks what's the core difference between this and forecasting?

I wouldn't consider car company CEOs a serious data point here for the same reasons. I agree it seems a reasonable move but I don't think it actually is. 

Asking workers and technicians within companies, especially off the record though I would consider a useful data point, although still biased of course.

I would have thought there might even be data on the accuracy of industry head predictions, because there would be a lot of news sources to look back on which could now be checked for accuracy. Might have a look.

This fantastic post by @Holly Elmore ⏸️ 🔸  "Scouts need soldiers for their work to be worth anything" carries a similar sentiment from a bit of a different angle.

I think there can also a bit of a prisoners dilemma dynamic at times here where defecting individually away from stubbornness, or away from EA can seem be the best thing for the individual and even perhaps for a short term tangible outcome, but may actually be worse for the cause we fight for or the EA movement in general over the longer term.

I think anyone who's been involved in advocacy, organising and activism knows that sometimes you need to be stubborn for purposes of leverage, movement longevity and morale even when it can be a bit anti-truth seeking at times. I've done it a number of times.

Also in the GWWC pledge we have fantastic commitment device, which is obviously for a specific use case, but we could learn from it for other cases.

That's true. If CEOs doubled down on things that were against the interest of their company I would listen to them intently

My experience from the church is the salary doesn't correlate will with likelihood of donating, although it does of course correlate with donating larger amounts of money.

If EAs working in AI policy and safety were serious about AI Doom being a near-term possibility, I would expect they would donate huge amounts towards that cause. A clear case of "revealed preferences" not just stated ones. 

I think I was assuming people working in highly paid AI jobs were donating larger percentages of their income, but I haven't seen data in either direction?

There's no heel prick in low income countries because there isn't the money for newborn screening.

Yep here it's super common here in UgAnda the baby gets whisked away to check breathing, temperature, then gets washed, then gets wrapped up. Often babies are then given to mother wrapped in clothes. Skin to skin is highly variable and I would say the majority of babies don't get it. 

We should be careful about criticizing cultural norms. Cleaning and wrapping up the baby is often seen here as the best care they can get - it's just unfortunate that it isn't.

I don't think it's that wild that it isn't the standard, I can easily see how other options after birth could be seen as "better" for a whole bunch of reasons.

Probably for the best. Nearly fell off a motorcycle taxi yesterday when a bunch of bublys exploded into my face :D