357My take on What We Owe the Futureelifland·4y ago·Curated 4y ago·31m readelifland·4y ago·Curated 4y ago·31m read5050
348AGI and the EMH: markets are not expecting aligned or unaligned AI in the next 30 yearsbasil.halperin, tmychow, J. Zachary Mazlish·3y ago·Curated 3y ago·31m readbasil.halperin, tmychow, J. Zachary Mazlish+ 2 more·3y ago·Curated 3y ago·31m read177177
286A deep critique of AI 2027’s bad timeline modelstitotal·1y ago·47m readtitotal·1y ago·47m read3232
227Broad TimelinesToby_Ord·7mo ago·Curated 6mo ago·19m readToby_Ord·7mo ago·Curated 6mo ago·19m read2626
227I made a news site based on prediction marketsvandemonian·3y ago·5m readvandemonian·3y ago·5m read1414
227Winners of the EA Criticism and Red Teaming ContestLizka, Owen Cotton-Barratt·4y ago·23m readLizka, Owen Cotton-Barratt+ 1 more·4y ago·23m read4242
220Comparing top forecasters and domain expertstechnicalities, Arb, Misha_Yagudin·4y ago·4m readtechnicalities, Arb, Misha_Yagudin+ 2 more·4y ago·4m read4040
206I bet Greg Colbourn 10 k€ that AI will not kill us all by the end of 2027Vasco Grilo🔸·2y ago·3m readVasco Grilo🔸·2y ago·3m read6464
204Scoring forecasts from the 2016 “Expert Survey on Progress in AI”PatrickL·3y ago·Curated 3y ago·10m readPatrickL·3y ago·Curated 3y ago·10m read2121
196Results from an Adversarial Collaboration on AI Risk (FRI)Forecasting Research Institute, AvitalM, rosehadshar, Molly Hickman, Jhrosenberg·2y ago·11m readForecasting Research Institute, AvitalM, rosehadshar, Molly Hickman, Jhrosenberg+ 4 more·2y ago·11m read2525
189What a compute-centric framework says about AI takeoff speedsTom_Davidson·3y ago·20m readTom_Davidson·3y ago·20m read77
183Announcing Epoch: A research organization investigating the road to Transformative AIJaime Sevilla, lennart, mariushobbhahn, Pablo Villalobos, Tamay·4y ago·3m readJaime Sevilla, lennart, mariushobbhahn, Pablo Villalobos, Tamay+ 4 more·4y ago·3m read1111
179Why I think it's important to work on AI forecastingMatthew_Barnett·3y ago·12m readMatthew_Barnett·3y ago·12m read1010
176Survey of 2,778 AI authors: six parts in picturesKatja_Grace·2y ago·2m readKatja_Grace·2y ago·2m read1111