How does it compare to https://impactlist.xyz/? 

Hm, I empathise with your underlying concern, but don't the sliders help with that?

(Tangentially, "precise maths on top of guesses" is basically how I'd describe all CEAs, including GiveWell's which move hundreds of millions annually. The guesses get better in all kinds of ways, but at least when I last checked the AMF CEA it wasn't using field data like you'd like. So in a sense you seem to be asking for more than whole teams of specialists can deliver, let alone one person and a bunch of subscriptions can do in their limited spare time?)

They're from the EA community, no? 

FWIW the app agrees with your 1st bullet:

What this doesn't capture

A QALY is a health metric. Most of Scott's giving targets economic mobility, education, and equity, whose value is largely non-health; a WELLBY or consumption frame would credit those buckets far more. The model is deliberately scoped to one question: how much health does the money buy? It is not a verdict on her choices.

and with your 2nd bullet:

The model also prices the same dollars at the global-health frontier. ... At the skeptical defaults, the frontier delivers roughly 1,500× more health per marginal dollar.

That multiple is a marginal comparison — the next dollar, not the whole portfolio. Frontier-priced opportunities are scarce... And the implied frontier counterfactual — ~105 million QALYs at the default settings — would mean averting ~4.2 million child deaths, most of a full year of the world's under-5 deaths; no amount of money buys that at bed-net prices. Redeploying the full $30 billion would ride up the marginal-cost curve — to a few hundred times rather than ~1,500×, at my guess — softer in magnitude, same in direction. The floor is direct cash, the one option with effectively unbounded capacity, which GiveWell now scores at 3–4× its own historic benchmark: in health-only terms, somewhere under 50–100×.

(Not sure about (the phrasing of) your impression, e.g. I remember this and this, and the anthropic tag has this, this, and this among others?) 

It can't help it too. Here's the CoT from a microsite I asked Claude to build recently:

The frontend-design skill is warning me away from exactly the palette I was about to use—cream background, serif display, terracotta accent—which it flags as a common AI default. I need to reject that instinct and make a real aesthetic choice that's specific to this project, not a templated solution. ...

Yet the resulting aesthetics were still unmistakably Claudey. Aesthetics taste seems quite the bulwark. 

Yet another banger of a report! Awesome stuff.

I asked Claude to create an interactive dashboard version and to "make it similarly aesthetically pleasing":

Pledge values:

Sensitivities:

Build your own multiplier:

You should definitely trust the actual report over this dashboard, if you see something funny blame Claude... 

When I scroll over comment notifications, the hover popup used to show the comments, now it shows the posts.

Very much appreciate the spot-check, thanks!

Abi Olvera's Golden rice delay dashboard, includes BOTEC calculations and sources, supplement to her Substack article A blocked GMO rice could have saved 100,000 children. The same tech makes pineapples pink:

Every year, vitamin A deficiency blinds 250,000 to 500,000 children. Half of them die within a year of losing their sight.

One third of children worldwide are deficient, roughly half of children in sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia¹. Deficiency weakens the immune system, so children are more likely to die from common infections like diarrhea or measles.

Rich countries solved this kind of problem by adding nutrients to staple foods. The United States adds iodine to most salt, and folic acid to flour to prevent birth defects.

Rice is a critical staple among the world’s poor, so scientists improved rice. They added beta-carotene, the thing that makes carrots orange and that the body turns into vitamin A. The new rice cooks and tastes the same, but it’s yellow. They called it Golden Rice and licensed it for free to any farmer earning under $10,000 a year.

It has been ready since the mid-2000s. Today it grows nowhere.

The reason is that it is a GMO. Environmental groups, led by Greenpeace, fought it in country after country for two decades.

As far as I can tell, no one has calculated the cost of that delay. I’ve spent the last few weeks doing so. My rough estimate is that the delay has killed about 106,000 children and left another 210,000 to 425,000 blind.² Measured in healthy years of life lost, that is somewhere between 7 and 12 million.³ (My full calculations are here. I will update these figures as I receive feedback.)

That works out to roughly fourteen children dying every single day, for twenty years, from a nutrient we already know how to add to food. ...

Most GMO crops are changed in how they grow, so the part you eat is ordinary. In Golden Rice, the part you eat is the part that changed. That made it feel new.

Greenpeace framed it as dangerous, saying corporations were secretly behind it. They falsely claimed it was unproven and that it was unclear whether children could absorb the vitamin. Activists tore up test fields and filed lawsuits to block approval. Over a hundred Nobel laureates signed a letter asking Greenpeace to stop.

While Golden Rice sat blocked, other new GMO foods reached store shelves. One of them is a pink pineapple. It sells for about $10 in stores and up to $50 online. It uses the same chemistry as Golden Rice, run in the opposite direction. Golden Rice turns on the pathway that makes the vitamin children need. The pineapple turns it off, so the fruit stays a pretty pink.

The lifesaving technology is in the Western world, growing a nicer pineapple for parties.