I have a bunch of disagreements with Good Ventures and how they are allocating their funds, but also Dustin and Cari are plausibly the best people who ever lived. 

AGI by 2028 is more likely than not

Look at the resolution criteria which is based on the specific metaculus Q, seems like a very low bar

I didn't read the post, so this isn't feedback. I just wanted to share my related take that I only want feedback if it's positive, and otherwise people should keep their moronic opinions to themselves. 

Update from Anthropic: https://twitter.com/AnthropicAI/status/1869139895400399183
 

I would guess grants made to Neil's lab are referring to the MIT FutureTech group, which he's the director of. FutureTech says on its website that it has received grants from OpenPhil and the OpenPhil website doesn't seem to mention a grant to FutureTech anywhere, so I assume the OpenPhil FutureTech grant was the grant made to Neil's lab. 

Relatedly, I think that the "Should you work at a leading AI company?" article shouldn't start with a pros and cons list which sort of buries the fact that you might contribute to building extremely dangerous AI. 

I think "Risk of contributing to the development of harmful AI systems" should at least be at the top of the cons list. But overall this sort of reminds me of my favorite graphic from 80k:

Insofar as you are recommending the jobs but not endorsing the organization, I think it would be good to be fairly explicit about this in the job listing. The current short description of OpenAI seems pretty positive to me:

OpenAI is a leading AI research and product company, with teams working on alignment, policy, and security. You can read more about considerations around working at a leading AI company in our career review on the topic. They are also currently the subject of news stories relating to their safety work. 

I think this should say something like "We recommend jobs at OpenAI because we think these specific positions may be high impact. We would not necessarily recommend working at other jobs at OpenAI (especially jobs which increase AI capabilities)."

I also don't know what to make of the sentence "They are also currently the subject of news stories relating to their safety work." Is this an allusion to the recent exodus of many safety people from OpenAI? If so, I think it's misleading and gives far too positive an impression. 

Do you mean the posts early last year about fundamental controllability limits?

Yep, that is what I was referring to. It does seem like you're likely to be more careful in the future, but I'm still fairly worried about advocacy done poorly. (Although, like, I also think people should be able to advocacy if they want)

I have similar views to Marius's comment. I did AISC in 2021 and I think it was somewhat useful for starting in AI safety, although I think my views and understanding of the problems were pretty dumb in hindsight. 

AISC does seem extremely cheap (at least for the budget options). If you have like 80% on the "Only top talent matters" model (MATS, Astra, others) and 20% on the "Cast a wider net" model (AISC), I would still guess that AISC seems like a good thing to do. 

My main worries here are with the negative effects. These are mainly related to the "To not build uncontrollable AI" stream; 3 out of 4 of these seem to be about communication/politics/advocacy.^[1] I'm worried about these having negative effects, making the AI safety people seem crazy, uninformed, or careless. I'm mainly worried about this because Remmelt's recent posting on LW really doesn't seem like careful or well thought through communication. (In general I think people should be free to do advocacy etc, although please think of externalities) Part of my worry is also from AISC being a place for new people to come, and new people might not know how fringe these views are in the AI safety community. 

I would be more comfortable with these projects (and they would potentially still be useful!) if they were focused on understanding the things they were advocating for more. E.g. a report on "How could lawyers and coders stop AI companies using their data?", rather than attempting to start an underground coalition. 

All the projects in the "Everything else" streams (run by Linda) seem good or fine, and likely a decent way to get involved and start thinking about AI safety. Although, as always, there is a risk of wasting time with projects that end up being useless. 

[ETA: I do think that AISC is likely good on net.]

1. ^{^}

   The other one seems like a fine/non-risky project related to domain whitelisting.