Thanks for your comment :) sorry you finding all the book posts annoying, I decided to post here after seeing that there hadn’t been a post on the EA Forum 

I’m not actually sure what book content I’m allowed to talk about publicly before the launch. Overall the book is written much more for an audience who are new to the AI x-risk arguments (e.g., policymakers and the general public), and it is less focused on providing new arguments to people who have been thinking/reading about this for years (although I do think they’ll find it an enjoyable and clarifying read). I don’t think it's trying to go 15 arguments deep in a LessWrong argument chain. That said, I think there is new stuff in there; the arguments are clearer than previously, there are novel framings on things, and I would guess that there’s at least some things in there that you would find new. I don’t know if I would expect people from the “Pope, Belrose, Turner, Barnett, Thornley, 1a3orn” crowd to be convinced, but they might appreciate the new framings. There will also be related online resources, which I think will cover more of the argument tree, although again, I don’t know how convincing this will be to people who are already in deep. 

Here’s what Nate said in the LW announcement post:

If you're a LessWrong regular, you might wonder whether the book contains anything new for you personally. The content won’t come as a shock to folks who have read or listened to a bunch of what Eliezer and I have to say, but it nevertheless contains some new articulations of our arguments, that I think are better articulations than we’ve ever managed before.

I would guess many people from the OpenPhil/Constellation cluster would give endorsements as the book being a good distillation. But insofar as it's moving the frontier of online arguments about AI x-risk forward, it will mainly be by saying arguments more clearly (which imo is still progress). 

I have a bunch of disagreements with Good Ventures and how they are allocating their funds, but also Dustin and Cari are plausibly the best people who ever lived. 

AGI by 2028 is more likely than not

Look at the resolution criteria which is based on the specific metaculus Q, seems like a very low bar

I didn't read the post, so this isn't feedback. I just wanted to share my related take that I only want feedback if it's positive, and otherwise people should keep their moronic opinions to themselves. 

Update from Anthropic: https://twitter.com/AnthropicAI/status/1869139895400399183
 

I would guess grants made to Neil's lab are referring to the MIT FutureTech group, which he's the director of. FutureTech says on its website that it has received grants from OpenPhil and the OpenPhil website doesn't seem to mention a grant to FutureTech anywhere, so I assume the OpenPhil FutureTech grant was the grant made to Neil's lab. 

Relatedly, I think that the "Should you work at a leading AI company?" article shouldn't start with a pros and cons list which sort of buries the fact that you might contribute to building extremely dangerous AI. 

I think "Risk of contributing to the development of harmful AI systems" should at least be at the top of the cons list. But overall this sort of reminds me of my favorite graphic from 80k:

Insofar as you are recommending the jobs but not endorsing the organization, I think it would be good to be fairly explicit about this in the job listing. The current short description of OpenAI seems pretty positive to me:

OpenAI is a leading AI research and product company, with teams working on alignment, policy, and security. You can read more about considerations around working at a leading AI company in our career review on the topic. They are also currently the subject of news stories relating to their safety work. 

I think this should say something like "We recommend jobs at OpenAI because we think these specific positions may be high impact. We would not necessarily recommend working at other jobs at OpenAI (especially jobs which increase AI capabilities)."

I also don't know what to make of the sentence "They are also currently the subject of news stories relating to their safety work." Is this an allusion to the recent exodus of many safety people from OpenAI? If so, I think it's misleading and gives far too positive an impression. 

Do you mean the posts early last year about fundamental controllability limits?

Yep, that is what I was referring to. It does seem like you're likely to be more careful in the future, but I'm still fairly worried about advocacy done poorly. (Although, like, I also think people should be able to advocacy if they want)