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Was community director of EA Netherlands, had to quit due to long covid

I have a background in philosophy,risk analysis, and moral psychology. I also did some x-risk research.


See here for a list of the participants and the standardized list of questions I asked.

Link seems to be missing

Yes, that comment was made by Lukas Gloor here, when I asked what people thought Sam Altman's beliefs are.

This is the year on year change from 2025 too 2029: -300 -500 -2.400 -2.400 -2.400

Given the instability of any coalition recently, but especially one with the far right, there's a chance this government won't make it far enough to implement the big cuts.

In 2024, the Netherlands is expected to spend 3.6 billion on foreign aid. So it's a 67% cut. This is supposedly the biggest cut in our country's history.

Common prevalence estimates are often wrong. Example: snakebites and my experience reading Long Covid literature.

Both institutions like the WHO and academic literature appear to be incentivized to exaggerate. I think the Global Burden of Disease might be a more reliable source, but have not looked into it.

I advise everyone using prevalence estimates to treat them with some skepticism and look up the source.

The PVV is currently in formation with a right wing party, a moderate/Christian democrat right wing party, and a farmers party. Voting pro animal welfare would have complicated the formation.

In addition, I doubt that many far right voters are more pro animal welfare than pro-rural/pro-farmers. To me, this seems like it was a legitimate belief held by a few people high in the party they had to give up for strategic reasons.

I don't think it was a way to screw over Muslims.

I am concerned about the H5N1 situation in dairy cows and have written and overview document to which I occasionally add new learnings (new to me or new to world). I also set up a WhatsApp community that anyone is welcome to join for discussion & sharing news.

In brief:

  • I believe there are quite a few (~50-250) humans infected recently, but no sustained human-to-human transmission
  • I estimate the Infection Fatality Rate substantially lower than the ALERT team (theirs is 63% that CFR >= 10%), something like 80%CI = 0.1 - 5.0
  • The government's response is astoundingly bad - I find it insane that raw milk is still being sold, with a high likelihood that some of it contains infectious H5N1
  • There are still quite a few genetic barriers to sustained human-to-human transmission
  • This might be a good time to push specific pandemic preparedness policies

I'm personally pretty concerned given the many rumors of farm workers falling ill and looking to join a discussion group.

In case it doesn't exist, I've started a WhatsApp community that you can join via this link: https://chat.whatsapp.com/LD6OAM32PgF7WdJ51ABVsl

Btw, I don't think the virus has a high mortality rate in its current form, based on these reported rumors

More links:

April 22, Science:

But Russo and many other vets have heard anecdotes about workers who have pink eye and other symptoms—including fever, cough, and lethargy—and do not want to be tested or seen by doctors. James Lowe, a researcher who specializes in pig influenza viruses, says policies for monitoring exposed people vary greatly between states. “I believe there are probably lots of human cases,” he says, noting that most likely are asymptomatic. Russo says she is heartened that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has “really started to mobilize and do the right thing,” including linking with state and local health departments, as well as vets, to monitor the health of workers on affected farms. https://www.science.org/content/article/u-s-government-hot-seat-response-growing-cow-flu-outbreak

April 29, Daily Mail:

Experts have warned that human transmission of bird flu may be far more widespread than thought, as farmers in Texas and Wisconsin are reported to have symptoms of the virus but are avoiding testing.

Dr Barb Petersen, a dairy veterinarian in Amarillo, Texas, explained that workers at a local farm where cattle have tested positive for the virus are suffering tell-tale symptoms.

[...] Meanwhile, veterinary researchers in Wisconsin — where the virus has infected cows — have reported multiple cases of local farmers suffering bird flu-like symptoms.

But farmers are notoriously reluctant to seek medical help, meaning 'a lot of cases are not documented', according to Dr Keith Poulsen, director of the Wisconsin Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory.


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