Post script: Personal reflection, and biases-from-experience
I’ve tried to be effective and altruistic for nearly 20 years. I'm no star performer by any stretch of the imagination - but there are probably only a couple of things I’ve done that beat my GWWC pledge’s estimated impact. Both were in a more permissive, emergency context.
The first was supporting with a mere £~1k and 2 weeks during a surge of cholera in south west Bangladesh following a cyclone in 2009. With that money and having a few wits about me, it was possible to pump and clean Shyamnugar’s contaminated water supply (mini reservoir) right in the middle of the outbreak that was cholera contaminated, and add ~20% to emergency clean water provision by providing transport to move existing clean water supply to families waiting for water-aid by the roadside.
This was possible for a non-expert 21 year old, working creatively with local government, and allowing quick partnership and leadership from a local NGO, and Oxfam’s willingness to share their water. Being in the right place at the right time with the right values & resources is something I encourage readers not to under-estimate - but I might be over-egging in my thinking.
I find it more motivating and easier to connect inputs to outcomes in situations like this, than AI or theoretical hazards with very small p values. p=1 for this being a problem, and even if it doesn’t scale to the whole world itself, I can’t think of a better way outside the world of life science R&D to address disease risks as a class than build general capability in responding to them. I am also very sceptical of our ability as humans to anticipate large-scale tail risks effectively AND to address them before they happen - I worry about accidentally making things worse in those situations. In an actual outbreak, I believe there is better and more feedback to work with.
Finally, I joined GWWC in 2013 because I was motivated to make the most difference possible to human flourishing/suffering & my focus is still there.
Post script: Personal reflection, and biases-from-experience
I’ve tried to be effective and altruistic for nearly 20 years. I'm no star performer by any stretch of the imagination - but there are probably only a couple of things I’ve done that beat my GWWC pledge’s estimated impact. Both were in a more permissive, emergency context.
The first was supporting with a mere £~1k and 2 weeks during a surge of cholera in south west Bangladesh following a cyclone in 2009. With that money and having a few wits about me, it was possible to pump and clean Shyamnugar’s contaminated water supply (mini reservoir) right in the middle of the outbreak that was cholera contaminated, and add ~20% to emergency clean water provision by providing transport to move existing clean water supply to families waiting for water-aid by the roadside.
This was possible for a non-expert 21 year old, working creatively with local government, and allowing quick partnership and leadership from a local NGO, and Oxfam’s willingness to share their water. Being in the right place at the right time with the right values & resources is something I encourage readers not to under-estimate - but I might be over-egging in my thinking.
I find it more motivating and easier to connect inputs to outcomes in situations like this, than AI or theoretical hazards with very small p values. p=1 for this being a problem, and even if it doesn’t scale to the whole world itself, I can’t think of a better way outside the world of life science R&D to address disease risks as a class than build general capability in responding to them. I am also very sceptical of our ability as humans to anticipate large-scale tail risks effectively AND to address them before they happen - I worry about accidentally making things worse in those situations. In an actual outbreak, I believe there is better and more feedback to work with.
Finally, I joined GWWC in 2013 because I was motivated to make the most difference possible to human flourishing/suffering & my focus is still there.