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BLUF:
* To determine whether AI is ‘improving exponentially’, ‘hitting the wall’, or any other claim which involves a quantity or magnitude (e.g. ‘This model was a big leap/small increment’). We need a good y-axis: an interval scale of AI capability which means +1 unit always represents the same degree of ‘how much better’, in the same way +1 degree Celsius is always the same amount of ‘how much hotter’.
* Yet there is no good y-axis for AI capability. All our...
I am deeply irritated with "I can anonymously discourage this line of thinking" as a forum construct. If you have a problem with what I'm saying, say it to my face.
Not a downvoter, but the post is really unclear to me, doesn't seem to have a coherent point, and doesn't justify claims. Also, it doesn't seem relevant to effective altruism, which has <50% overlap with the rationality community.
There are good criticisms of EA, including good criticisms of the form "EA should be more welcoming", but they're way more developed and coherent.
The EAF is using LessWrong 2.0 forum architecture, which shapes its' culture tremendously. In particular, there's a general expectation that good criticism has to be longwinded.
That said, this is a very helpful summary of what locals think is going on. Thank you!