BLUF:
* To determine whether AI is ‘improving exponentially’, ‘hitting the wall’, or any other claim which involves a quantity or magnitude (e.g. ‘This model was a big leap/small increment’). We need a good y-axis: an interval scale of AI capability which means +1 unit always represents the same degree of ‘how much better’, in the same way +1 degree Celsius is always the same amount of ‘how much hotter’.
* Yet there is no good y-axis for AI capability. All our...
Summary
* The animal welfare movement has already seen an influx in funding and should prepare for the possibility of more.
* The EA Animal Welfare Fund is encouraging those working in animal advocacy to actively set aside time and resources now to concretely plan for scaling sustainably, and we’ll support you in doing that.
* We’re requesting advocates set concrete ambitious goals and submit plans t...
Public service announcement
1. Applications are now open for our first ever round of the Charity Entrepreneurship Incubation Program dedicated exclusively to animal welfare. Learn more about what’s different this round here and apply...
Trying to craft an answer, may update this as I think some more. Of course, this answer is crafted from my perspective on what is 'best'. You will probably want to consult with your friend as to what they value (as well as discussing this issue with them to help them carefully consider their priorities.)
MSF
I suspect that MSF is as good as best for the institutional 'laying the groundwork' to permit relief in these specific disaster cases, but I don't have hard evidence. (E.g., latest GiveWell evaluation of MSF in 2012.)
Note that (I recall reading discussions of) the work of an organization like MSF is particularly hard to analyze with a GiveWell-style CEA, both because:
... they do many things and it's hard to isolate costs or earmark funds specific activities, and because
... much of their work has harder-to-immediately-measure benefits, such as providing an environment to permit further aid and an international presence, and (maybe) building institutions.
That's not to say we shouldn't try to measure this; I think we should!
Open Philanthropy's choices
I defer to the careful judgment and research of Open Phil, who recently gave :
Regular malnutrition is not the same thing as famine relief, I think, but there may be some overlap.
This is why we need rigorous evaluation of a wider set of charities/causes
(One of my hobby horses)
As I've argued before, the case you present offers an example of one reason (of several reasons) why we should fund and do systematic measurement and evaluation of 'harder to evaluate' charities and causes.
I hope that the use of Fermi estimation involving meta-analysis of existing (limited evidence, calibrated judgment where evidence is lacking, quantified uncertainty, and MonteCarlo estimation will enable this more. See Hazelfire/QURI work here. I'm also hope that Sogive can move in this direction. I'm also interested in fostering multiple independent evaluations of the same programs and charities to get a sense of our reliability here.