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Headline finding: I audited 17 AI Safety Talent programmes. Zero of 17 have published any comparison group, rejected-applicant follow-up, matched control or randomisation. Not one. Every programme that mentions a counterfactual does it by asking participants to self-report.
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At least $70 million...
In celebration of still being alive and fighting, we are giving away 1,000 Amazon e-books of “If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies”. Feel free to send a copy to yourself, a loved one, or a friend—we need all hands on deck.
Today marks exactly one year since If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: Why Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All, by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soare...
A year ago I posted that YCombinator (YC) companies didn’t seem to be growing faster since the release of ChatGPT in 2022. I reran that experiment and found that 2023+ YC companies are arguably growing a bit faster than pre-2023 companies (including AfterQuery, ...
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If you think about the fraud SBF did, it could technically be thought of as merely a redistribution of wealth from those who held FTX to those who shorted ftx and almeda.
Could it be possible that this redistribution was good?
Among other reasons to disagree with this statement, I don't think it is accurate to say that depositors "held FTX."
Was anyone able to short FTX or Alameda? Neither was publicly traded.
Presumably could short the FTT token, which was a form of psuedo-equity in FTX.
For every dollar someone lost, someone else gained a dollar, I wonder where that money went.
Overpriced private equity investments, bad crypto trades, celebrity endorsers, etc. Pretty sure the marginal utility of Tom Brady having more money is minimal at best!
Michael Lewis tries to provide some rough estimates in the last chapter or two of "Going Infinite". From memory, his answer is more or less along the same lines as Jason's comment. Also, some of the money was stolen in hacks, and some has now gone to the bankruptcy lawyers etc.