The Future of Life Institute (FLI) published an open letter against reckless nuclear escalation and use. It only took me about 1 min to read it and add my signature. I believe it was the most cost-effective action of my week, and I encourage EA Forum readers to sign it too!
I guess signing the letter leads to a reduction in existential risk of the order of magnitude of 10^-13 (=10^-(3 + 6 + 4)), assuming:
- The existential risk due to nuclear war from 2021 to 2120 is 0.1 %, as guessed by Toby Ord in Table 6.1 of The Precipice.
- The existential risk reduction caused by FLI's open letter is 10^-6 of the above if 10 k people sign the letter.
10^-13 might seem small, but it is of the same order of magnitude of the annual existential risk footprint of the mean human, which I estimated here to be 2*10^-13. The concept of personal footprint is flawed in many important ways, and my calculations are quite speculative. That being said, I still think they point to the high cost-effectiveness of signing the letter. For example, I would be very happy to cancel my carbon footprint for a cost of 1 min!
I have also estimated the probabilility of extinction due to nuclear in the 21st century to be 0.3 %.