First off, I really appreciate the straightshooter conclusion of 'QC is unlikely to be helpful to address current bottlenecks in AI alignment.' even while you both spent many hours looking into it.
Second, I'm curious to hear any thoughts on the amateur speculation I threw at Pablo in a chat at the last AI Safety Camp:
Would quantum computing afford the mechanisms for improved prediction of the actions that correlated agents would decide on?
As a toy model, I'm imagining hundreds of almost-homogenous reinforcement learning agents within a narrow distribution of slightly divergent maps of the state space, probability weightings/policies, and environmental inputs. Would current quantum computing techniques, assuming the hardware to run them on is available, be able to more quickly/precisely derive the % portions of those agents at say State1 would take Action1, Action2, or Action3?
I have a broad vague sense that if that set-up works out, you could leverage that to create a 'regulator agent' for monitoring some 'multi-agent system' composed of quasi-homogenous autonomous 'selfish agents' (e.g. each negotiating on behalf of their respective human interest group) that has a meaningful influence on our physical environment. This regulator would interface directly with a few of the selfish agents. If that selfish agent subset are about to select Action1, it will predict what % of other, slightly divergent algorithms would also decide Action1. If the regulator prognoses that an excessive number of Action1s will be taken – leading to reduced rewards to or robustness of the collective (e.g. Tragedy of the Commons case of overutilisation of local resources) – it would override that decision by commanding a compensating number of the agents to instead select the collectively-conservative Action2.
That's a lot of jargon, half of which I feel I have little clue about... But curious to read any arguments you have on how this would (not) work.
Maybe having a good understanding of Quantum Computing and how it could be leveraged in different paradigms of ML might help with forecasting AI-timelines as well as dominant paradigms, to some extend?
If that was true, while not necessarily helpful for a single agenda, knowledge about quantum computing would help with the correct prioritization of different agendas.
I do agree with your assesment, and I would be medium excited about somebody informally researching what algorithms can be quantized to see if there is low hanging fruit in terms of simplifying assumptions that could be made in a world where advanced AI is quantum-powered.
However my current intuition is there is no much sense in digging in this unless we were sort of confident that 1) we will have access to QC before TAI and that 2) QC will be a core component of AI.
To give a bit more context to the article, Pablo and me originally wrote it because we disagreed on whether current research in AI Alignment would still be useful if quantum computing was a core component of advanced AI systems.
Had we concluded that quantum ofuscation threatened to invalidate some assumptions made by current research, we would have been more emphatic about the necessity of having quantum computing experts working on "safeguarding our research" on AI Alignment.