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TLDR: Everyone’s talking about what the money could do, but few about how to decide where it goes.
This post is part of the new series of articles on cross-cause giving and the new wave of philanthropy. Stay tuned to the EA Forum and our Substack for the latest takes on topics such as giving now vs. later, common pitfalls in cause prioritization, and other crucial considerations from the Cross-Cause Fund (CCF) team...
With your aggressive tone, it's perhaps understandable why you've run into mod trouble on LessWrong. But as a simple existence proof, the forecasting techniques and training materials described by Phillip Tetlock in books like "Superforcasting" have been repeatedly shown to somewhat improve people's skill at making all kinds of predictions across varied subject areas. Forecasting isn't the same thing as LessWrong-style "rationality", but it's close -- both are general reasoning skills that focus on avoiding bias and understanding probability, rather than domain-specific expertise.
https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/improving-institutional-decision-making/#there-are-several-ways-to-make-progress-on-improving-decision-making