BLUF:
* To determine whether AI is ‘improving exponentially’, ‘hitting the wall’, or any other claim which involves a quantity or magnitude (e.g. ‘This model was a big leap/small increment’). We need a good y-axis: an interval scale of AI capability which means +1 unit always represents the same degree of ‘how much better’, in the same way +1 degree Celsius is always the same amount of ‘how much hotter’.
* Yet there is no good y-axis for AI capability. All our...
Public service announcement
1. Applications are now open for our first ever round of the Charity Entrepreneurship Incubation Program dedicated exclusively to animal welfare. Learn more about what’s different this round here and apply...
TL;DR
* The Long-Term Future Fund is closing down, and EA Funds is launching the Transformative AI Fund with a new full-time team.
* The fund's primary focus is technical AI safety and AI governance (including post-AGI governance), as well as supporting fields such as field-building and forecasting. We'll also consider non-GCR implications of transformative AI such as flourishing futures and digital...
It seems as though event cancellation is now the general norm, so hopefully the situation you outlined is quickly changing.
I don't know what the circumstances were behind any given cancellation, but it might be valuable to look for stories about contentious events (e.g. St. Patrick's Day parades in large East Coast cities) and see if you can pinpoint the reasons that they were shut down.
Similarly, you could look at statements from prominent companies that now encourage employees to work from home (e.g. Alphabet) and see how they explain themselves. (The prestige of those companies may also be a good selling point for other business leaders.)
Thanks! Yes, fortunately the message to cancel everything has gotten out.