Cluelessness vs Longtermism

Some thoughts related to deep uncertainty vis-à-vis our overall influence over the long-term future.

See also this related Substack post: https://jimbuhler.substack.com/p/aliens-mess-up-everything-if-youre

Note that despite the title of this sequence, I do not necessarily think cluelessness about long-term effects implies neartermism. See https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/nhfi6Evxqt5uzp3Yz/a-fishy-analogy-for-long-term-cluelessness?commentId=ZqD4EnFyhgrJpujiP