77:I[392826,["$2","$3","$4","$5","$6","$7","$8","$9","$a","$b","$c","$d","$2a","$2b"],"default"] 78:I[836637,["$2","$3","$4","$5","$6","$7","$8","$9","$a","$b","$c","$d","$2a","$2b"],"default"] 79:T145f,

I run Sentinel, a team that seeks to anticipate and respond to large-scale risks. You can read our weekly minutes here. I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and generally becoming more formidable. I'm also a fairly good forecaster: I started out on predicting on Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell, but now do most of my forecasting through Samotsvety, of which Scott Alexander writes:

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

7a:T145f,

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

7b:T145f,

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

7c:T145f,

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

7d:T145f,

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

7e:T145f,

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

7f:T145f,

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

6c:["$","$L2d",null,{"pageSectionContext":"tagsSection","children":["$","div",null,{"data-component":"TopicPostsList","children":[["$","div",null,{"data-component":"SectionTitle","className":"flex items-center justify-between mb-1 min-h-8","children":[["$","div",null,{"id":"posts-tagged-quantified-uncertainty-research-institute","ref":"$undefined","style":"$undefined","className":"font-sans text-[13px] font-[700] leading-[16px] uppercase text-gray-600 ","data-component":"Type","data-style":"sectionTitleSmall","children":"Posts tagged Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute"}],["$","div",null,{"children":["$","$L77",null,{"sortedBy":"top"}]}]]}],["$","$L78","top",{"tagId":"qnpsn9LbiD4hkbPRF","tagName":"Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute","sortedBy":"top","initialPosts":[{"_id":"L6ZmggEJw8ri4KB8X","slug":"my-highly-personal-skepticism-braindump-on-existential-risk","title":"My highly personal skepticism braindump on existential risk from artificial intelligence.","url":"https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/01/23/my-highly-personal-skepticism-braindump-on-existential-risk/","baseScore":442,"voteCount":184,"commentCount":116,"postedAt":"2023-01-23T20:08:28.707Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2023-01-24T10:46:39.796Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/v1674494698/mirroredImages/L6ZmggEJw8ri4KB8X/nnvv26eiadmcqlnfvcca.png","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2023-08-14T17:26:08.052Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"YRCdk7cvPT6pyiph9","slug":"nunosempere","displayName":"NunoSempere","username":"NunoSempere","createdAt":"2018-11-15T15:52:18.347Z","profileImageId":"Profile/k878ddoduabhtngbawob","karma":13987,"jobTitle":"Director, Head of Foresight","organization":"Sentinel","postCount":107,"commentCount":1294,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"$79"},"contents":{"wordCount":4218,"htmlHighlight":"

Summary

This document seeks to outline why I feel uneasy about high existential risk estimates from AGI (e.g., 80% doom by 2070). When I try to verbalize this, I view considerations like

selection effects at the level of which arguments are discovered and distributed
community epistemic problems, and
increased uncertainty due to chains of reasoning with imperfect concepts

as real and important.

I sti..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"oNiQsBHA3i837sySD","core":true,"name":"AI safety","slug":"ai-safety","tagRel":{"_id":"nhGd4KGhJSfsRDu4K","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":7275,"description":"

AI safety is the study of ways to reduce risks posed by artificial intelligence.

Interventions that aim to reduce these risks can be split into:

Technical alignment..."},{"_id":"ee66CtAMYurQreWBH","core":true,"name":"Existential risk","slug":"existential-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"tyiDmj8hMibELTWgk","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":4366,"description":"
An existential risk is a risk that threatens the destruction of the long-term potential of life.[1] An existential risk could threaten the..."},{"_id":"EHLmbEmJ2Qd5WfwTb","core":true,"name":"Building effective altruism","slug":"building-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"KNND2mmKh3WsHCiae","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":7841,"description":"
Building effective altruism refers to the family of interventions aimed at growing, shaping, or otherwise improving effective altruism as a practical and intellectual community.
Examples of building effective altruism include starting..."},{"_id":"aFJtBqxDkRX4Dj3m4","core":false,"name":"Community epistemic health","slug":"community-epistemic-health","tagRel":{"_id":"bqJMEEvjfm8MsMvLT","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":206,"description":"
The community epistemic health tag applies to posts addressing the current state of epistemic health in the effective altruism community, as well as posts discussing how we might improve the epistemic health of the community.
Effective altruism is about working out how to do as much good as we can using evidence and reason..."},{"_id":"aJnrnnobcBNWRsfAw","core":true,"name":"Forecasting","slug":"forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"sfoXPbimGthyvgp84","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":2081,"description":"
Forecasting is an important tool for improving the future, because good forecasts and estimates can help us appropriately plan interventions and assess risks. Over the past several decades there has been significant research and investment in forecasting and estimation techniques, tools, and organizations. This continues to be a..."},{"_id":"gP4rpeK3CoE7mfrxK","core":false,"name":"Criticism of longtermism and existential risk studies","slug":"criticism-of-longtermism-and-existential-risk-studies","tagRel":{"_id":"CFADWtQRfCzEvnRDp","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":180,"description":"
Criticism of longtermism and existential risk studies collects critical discussions of longtermism and existential risk studies.
Further reading
Melchin, Denise (2021)..."},{"_id":"gfHzi2LEAFZHepiBH","core":false,"name":"Samotsvety Forecasting","slug":"samotsvety-forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"GPDabnbSSoByjmgCo","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":11,"description":"
Samotsvety Forecasting is a forecasting group started primarily by Misha Yagudin, Nuño Sempere, and..."},{"_id":"qnpsn9LbiD4hkbPRF","core":false,"name":"Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute","slug":"quantified-uncertainty-research-institute","tagRel":{"_id":"z2Httwaqrnj4mzXLY","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":96,"description":"
The Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI) is a nonprofit set up to study forecasting and epistemics. QURI was founded in 2019.
Funding
As of June 2022, QURI has received over $650,000 in funding from the..."},{"_id":"sSZ8pCvackwaY9vBx","core":false,"name":"Criticism of effective altruism","slug":"criticism-of-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"CGhWnfc3YHjK64YwD","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":596,"description":"
Criticism of effective altruism collects critical discussion of effective altruism ideas (as opposed to criticism of effective altruist organizations,..."},{"_id":"doAxFNMmB7qMbJsDR","core":false,"name":"Criticism of the effective altruism community","slug":"criticism-of-the-effective-altruism-community","tagRel":{"_id":"zqEyMTymrpg5uPDnz","voteType":null,"baseScore":11},"postCount":282,"description":"
Criticism of the effective altruism community includes criticism of behaviors, norms, and dynamics in the effective altruism community, as opposed to criticism of effective altruist causes,..."},{"_id":"BF9ioxvBD7wdH6QzE","core":false,"name":"AI risk skepticism","slug":"ai-risk-skepticism","tagRel":{"_id":"tRCXfMHiJEd6mkJbY","voteType":null,"baseScore":8},"postCount":227,"description":"
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Epistemic status: Dwelling on the negatives.
Hello AstralCodexTen readers! You might also enjoy this series on estimating value, or my forecasting newsletter. And for the estimation language used throughout this post, see..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"8FxWuRZCwoxzQPkWM","core":false,"name":"United States","slug":"united-states","tagRel":{"_id":"7qgEsAhvuvTips5PX","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":185,"description":"
The United States tag is used for posts that are about the United States, including (but not restricted to) policy, politics, and..."},{"_id":"ARCicHJHsws2HMdbX","core":false,"name":"Squiggle","slug":"squiggle","tagRel":{"_id":"Pi6SQDqmyfCDzGrjd","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":36,"description":"
Squiggle is a special-purpose coding language for generating probability distributions, estimates of variables over time, and similar tasks. It was developed by the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute.
Tutorials..."},{"_id":"Gux6FLJKJkXquEzoa","core":false,"name":"Just Impact","slug":"just-impact","tagRel":{"_id":"aCFHqrpYxGize2Bor","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":2,"description":"
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Coefficient Giving (previously Open Philanthropy) is a research and grantmaking foundation based in San Francisco.
History
Coefficient Giving launched in late 2011, as a partnership between Good Ventures and..."},{"_id":"ui3ZZqd23HzA7wNwP","core":false,"name":"Criticism of effective altruist causes","slug":"criticism-of-effective-altruist-causes","tagRel":{"_id":"ccqAdFGw9ZLZHixJk","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":242,"description":"
The criticism of effective altruist causes tag covers posts that criticize popular claims about the importance of a given cause area, or an idea within that area. They don't have to be critical of the area as a whole — just one or more popular ideas related to the area.
Related entries
..."},{"_id":"aEfhhqymeFsdhDQLk","core":false,"name":"Criticism and Red Teaming Contest","slug":"criticism-and-red-teaming-contest","tagRel":{"_id":"hxnpi82kbyQbHLsoP","voteType":null,"baseScore":13},"postCount":283,"description":"
The Criticism and Red Teaming Contest is a contest on the Effective Altruism Forum for writing that critically engages with theory or work from the effective altruism community..."},{"_id":"LRLb252ZaS6ty4MH6","core":false,"name":"Models","slug":"models","tagRel":{"_id":"j5HnxbytSMijtPKtv","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":151,"description":"
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\n
For instance, economists who are interested in predicting how people will behave often analyze mod..."},{"_id":"qnpsn9LbiD4hkbPRF","core":false,"name":"Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute","slug":"quantified-uncertainty-research-institute","tagRel":{"_id":"kmKwDrQjqY6NHwrS5","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":96,"description":"
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Funding
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The Criticism of work in effective altruism tag applies to posts critically examining the work, projects, or methodologies of specific individuals, organizations, or initiatives affiliated with the effective altruism (EA) movement or community.
Related tags
..."},{"_id":"tE5BRNibhQogNJExQ","core":false,"name":"Criticism of effective altruist organizations","slug":"criticism-of-effective-altruist-organizations","tagRel":{"_id":"RnttNuYDnbb5v9MCE","voteType":null,"baseScore":9},"postCount":289,"description":"
The criticism of effective altruist organizations tag can apply to at least two kinds of posts:
- Posts criticizing the actions/strategy of a particular EA organization (or multiple orgs)
- Posts written by EA orgs or their representatives, if users have written critical comments responding to those posts

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Stating Beliefs

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Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute

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Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute

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