76:I[392826,["$2","$3","$4","$5","$6","$7","$8","$9","$a","$b","$c","$d","$e","$f","$2c","$2d"],"default"] 77:I[836637,["$2","$3","$4","$5","$6","$7","$8","$9","$a","$b","$c","$d","$e","$f","$2c","$2d"],"default"] 78:T145f,

I run Sentinel, a team that seeks to anticipate and respond to large-scale risks. You can read our weekly minutes here. I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and generally becoming more formidable. I'm also a fairly good forecaster: I started out on predicting on Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell, but now do most of my forecasting through Samotsvety, of which Scott Alexander writes:

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

79:T887,

I'm a researcher at Forethought; before that, I ran the non-engineering side of the EA Forum (this platform), ran the EA Newsletter, and worked on some other content-related tasks at CEA. [More about the Forum/CEA Online job.]

Selected posts

Background

I finished my undergraduate studies with a double major in mathematics and comparative literature in 2021. I was a research fellow at Rethink Priorities in the summer of 2021 and was then hired by the Events Team at CEA. I later switched to the Online Team. In the past, I've also done some (math) research and worked at Canada/USA Mathcamp.

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I do farm animal welfare grantmaking at Coefficient Giving. I was previously doing social movement and protest-related research at Social Change Lab, an EA-aligned research organisation I've founded.

Previously, I completed the 2021 Charity Entrepreneurship Incubation Program. Before that, I was on the Strategy team at Extinction Rebellion UK, working on movement-building for animal advocacy and climate change.

My blog (often EA related content)

See a bit more about me here.

"},"contents":{"wordCount":1215,"htmlHighlight":"

[Cross-posted from my Substack here]

If you spend time with people trying to change the world, you’ll come to an interesting conundrum: Various advocacy groups reference previous successful social movements as to why their chosen strategy is the most important one. Yet, these groups often follow wildly different strategies from each other to achieve social change. So, which one of them is r..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"hC88x9hNZ7cJYLu8q","core":false,"name":"History","slug":"history","tagRel":{"_id":"GMcCjQ7FtuWgAgcRP","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":206,"description":"

The history tag is for posts that are strongly focused on historical events or trends (rather than just mentioning these things briefly), or that discuss or make heavy use of historical research methods.

Related entries

building effective altruism |..."},{"_id":"hxRMaKvwGqPb43TWB","core":false,"name":"Research","slug":"research","tagRel":{"_id":"XEeKCGgu8dcjN5K5i","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2712,"description":"

For some of the world’s problems, like many forms of cancer, there are currently no solutions. In such cases, research can be particularly impactful. Even in cases where there are ways of dealing with a problem (like HIV), further research may provide more effective tools (like a ..."},{"_id":"uuENf8tJ33Qf3Keq2","core":false,"name":"Social and intellectual movements","slug":"social-and-intellectual-movements","tagRel":{"_id":"xyiERtDtq43r6gqm9","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":117,"description":"

The social and intellectual movements tag applies to posts that discuss how other social and intellectual movements relate to effective altruism. For example, they might discuss:

Building alliances with them
What we can learn from them
Ways in which we should oppose them

Fu..."},{"_id":"DwJY53daQyQq8eWo7","core":false,"name":"Armed conflict","slug":"armed-conflict","tagRel":{"_id":"FsfFentxvCpwiRJnC","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":138,"description":"
The armed conflict tag is for posts about interstate or intrastate violence between armed groups, the drivers of such conflicts, and interventions to reduce the frequency or severity of such conflicts.

What is the Forum P..."},{"_id":"of9xBvR3wpbp6qsZC","core":true,"name":"Policy","slug":"policy","tagRel":{"_id":"tFbRkcAjG7noXxnF5","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":3262,"description":"
The policy topic is very broad, covering any post about improving government policy (in developing and developed countries alike).
Improving policy
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The Centre for the Governance of AI (GovAI) is an AI governance research center.
History
GovAI was founded in 2018, as part of the Future of Humanity..."},{"_id":"EHLmbEmJ2Qd5WfwTb","core":true,"name":"Building effective altruism","slug":"building-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"swu2Hwif3gF2Zt6DP","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":7850,"description":"
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Examples of building effective altruism include starting..."}]},{"_id":"DiGL5FuLgWActPBsf","slug":"how-much-should-governments-pay-to-prevent-catastrophes","title":"How much should governments pay to prevent catastrophes? Longtermism’s limited role","url":"https://philpapers.org/archive/SHUHMS.pdf","baseScore":258,"voteCount":85,"commentCount":35,"postedAt":"2023-03-19T16:50:00.598Z","curatedDate":"2023-03-21T11:35:08.862Z","frontpageDate":"2023-03-20T05:11:53.775Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":{"imageId":"SocialPreview/wnbbm9dek7yxhhmijxxf"},"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/jpjvUpKtfdQGiwWP0VBlHqu0x0RSaYtq_-BcElzJUjAVuQIxLXraaZ1G8z72EPvyWHzFPSsH-GTJ6F1vNpQJswg2FdE9pudKXS87HQUKVhyHUH8ltMwLSPHjebvaii4TSZfqt1UM27ceNB4DWxLtlwE","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2023-05-26T15:51:04.679Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"E8qrx4Re7QBovd3ah","slug":"elliott-thornley","displayName":"Elliott Thornley","username":"elliottthornley","createdAt":"2020-12-18T09:37:38.239Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":1240,"jobTitle":"Postdoc","organization":"MIT","postCount":16,"commentCount":105,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"
I work on AI alignment. Right now, I'm using ideas from decision theory to design and train safer artificial agents.
I also do work in ethics, focusing on the moral importance of future generations.
You can email me at thornley@mit.edu.
"},"contents":{"wordCount":10586,"htmlHighlight":"
Preamble
We use standard cost-benefit analysis (CBA) to argue that governments should do more to reduce global catastrophic risk.
We argue that getting governments to adopt a CBA-driven catastrophe policy should be the goal of longtermists in the political sphere.
We suggest that longtermism can play a supplementary role in government catastrophe policy. If and when present people are willing to pay for interventions aimed primarily at improving humanity's long-te..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"Ng9dxDSsc5uK4Zsmx","slug":"carlshulman","karma":5713,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"CarlShulman","createdAt":"2014-08-21T01:29:49.479+00:00","postCount":6,"displayName":"CarlShulman","commentCount":387,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":null,"profileImageId":null}],"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"H43gvLzBCacxxamPe","core":true,"name":"Biosecurity","slug":"biosecurity","tagRel":{"_id":"GbRBXFJL7iynXKY9k","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":1592,"description":"
Biosecurity covers the procedures, practices and other measures used to manage risks from biological agents (e.g. viruses, bacteria) or their products (e.g. toxins).
Terminology
The term \"biosecurity\" has different meanings in different contexts. As a few examples:
In agriculture, biosecurity usually ref..."},{"_id":"oNiQsBHA3i837sySD","core":true,"name":"AI safety","slug":"ai-safety","tagRel":{"_id":"mm5EqfLqaBSjcwNxF","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":7281,"description":"
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Interventions that aim to reduce these risks can be split into:
Technical alignment..."},{"_id":"wPjsmKwAoW8XhBEzE","core":false,"name":"Carl Shulman","slug":"carl-shulman","tagRel":{"_id":"ofqjgffkP7FHxBJYJ","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":21,"description":"
Carl Matthew Shulman (born ca. 1982) is a Canadian-American researcher. He is currently a Research Associate at the Future of Humanity Institute and an Advisor to Open Philanthrop..."},{"_id":"ee66CtAMYurQreWBH","core":true,"name":"Existential risk","slug":"existential-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"MkbBc4dvPRncSNgDm","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":4370,"description":"
An existential risk is a risk that threatens the destruction of the long-term potential of life.[1] An existential risk could threaten the..."},{"_id":"pmALcrKQBDgFMyqqt","core":false,"name":"Global catastrophic risk","slug":"global-catastrophic-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"mDAydMKdmxcCqmYjX","voteType":null,"baseScore":6},"postCount":300,"description":"
A global catastrophic risk (GCR) is an event that poses a risk of major harm on a global scale.^[1]
GCRs risks include, but are not restricted to,..."},{"_id":"Fm9Jpm3Z9Y3aezDv7","core":false,"name":"Cost-benefit analysis","slug":"cost-benefit-analysis","tagRel":{"_id":"hQo5ZrWcNCFkz69m6","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":52,"description":"
Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is a collection of methods for evaluating the social costs and benefits of alternative social arrangements.
Cost-benefit analysis estimates the ratio between the cost and the benefit of the intervention. Interventions with a lower ratio are said to provide a higher return. Cost-..."},{"_id":"t2L2RziMDLEuHBWNF","core":false,"name":"Longtermism","slug":"longtermism","tagRel":{"_id":"gJhwvsL8FzJhyFDrD","voteType":null,"baseScore":6},"postCount":1069,"description":"
Longtermism is the view that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority of our time.^[1]..."},{"_id":"of9xBvR3wpbp6qsZC","core":true,"name":"Policy","slug":"policy","tagRel":{"_id":"as4zRugAhqv3jXP5n","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":3262,"description":"
The policy topic is very broad, covering any post about improving government policy (in developing and developed countries alike).
Improving policy
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Governments and philanthropists spend considerable resources attempting to do good in the world...."},{"_id":"uCPFdnpD6e4CCX8nC","core":false,"name":"Research methods","slug":"research-methods","tagRel":{"_id":"tTfBJvwWNZHBsvJ5w","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":265,"description":"
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The tag can also be used for posts that present their research in such an exemplary way that a reader could learn about effective research methods simply by reading them.
For posts about improving research methods done in science, use the..."},{"_id":"uDAGFwZLscHKfoubc","core":false,"name":"Improving institutional decision-making","slug":"improving-institutional-decision-making","tagRel":{"_id":"aeLtoPkCqL9Thszyi","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":325,"description":"
Improving institutional decision-making is a cause that focuses on increasing the technical quality and effective altruism alignment of the most important decisions made by the world’s most important decision-making bodies...."},{"_id":"KdxaNG2Fwkgh4ywFm","core":false,"name":"Nuclear security","slug":"nuclear-security","tagRel":{"_id":"ZJYabNHiWvhpSWvL8","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":291,"description":"
Nuclear security is the set of procedures, practices or other measures used to manage risks from nuclear weapons and other nuclear materials.
Nuclear war is potentially the primary near-term..."}]},{"_id":"CwFyTacABbWuzdYwB","slug":"ea-needs-consultancies","title":"EA needs consultancies","url":null,"baseScore":243,"voteCount":115,"commentCount":88,"postedAt":"2021-06-28T15:18:38.844Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2021-06-28T15:26:26.640Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2023-09-11T13:45:53.168Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"yfTLkshti9Q7Zrgmv","slug":"lukeprog","displayName":"lukeprog","username":"lukeprog","createdAt":"2014-08-21T01:29:46.102Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":4367,"jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":26,"commentCount":240,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":null},"contents":{"wordCount":2397,"htmlHighlight":"
Problem
\n
EA organizations like Open Phil and CEA could do a lot more if we had access to more analysis and more talent, but for several reasons we can't bring on enough new staff to meet these needs ourselves, e.g. because our needs change over time, so we can't make a commitment that there's much future work of a particular sort to be done within our organizations.^[1] This also contri..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"gCzFfErskfQzD6b95","core":false,"name":"Rethink Priorities","slug":"rethink-priorities","tagRel":{"_id":"352DcwxgSwoac7WMj","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":448,"description":"
Rethink Priorities is a think tank dedicated to informing decisions made by high-impact organisations and funders. It works across various cause areas such as longtermism (including forecasting,..."},{"_id":"6DWibSGkovfWcW3QE","core":false,"name":"Working at EA vs. non-EA orgs","slug":"working-at-ea-vs-non-ea-orgs","tagRel":{"_id":"E5EPMgEwGsTNv5yQo","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":76,"description":"
The working at EA vs. non-EA orgs tag is for posts that include arguments for or against pursuing jobs at organisations that explicitly identify with the \"effective altruism\" label, relative to jobs at other organisations. The tag is also for posts that include discussion of whether and why members of the EA community may be bia..."},{"_id":"A2ZzqESan6kFret2k","core":false,"name":"Berkeley Existential Risk Initiative","slug":"berkeley-existential-risk-initiative","tagRel":{"_id":"Ne6XcCdiBWSmpm4xC","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":22,"description":"
The Berkeley Existential Risk Initiative (BERI) is a US-based public charity that collaborates with university research groups working to reduce existential risk, by providing them with free services and support.
History
BERI was founded in 2017 by Andrew Critch..."},{"_id":"HmgSZhvc3mfyiCb4X","core":false,"name":"Good Growth","slug":"good-growth","tagRel":{"_id":"Q3STRwCKBCJgThiBq","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":5,"description":"
Good Growth is a research and design consultancy that helps organizations use evidence to increase their social impact.
External links
Good Growth. Official website.
..."},{"_id":"tx3q9KW35B3M6MM4h","core":false,"name":"Organization strategy","slug":"organization-strategy","tagRel":{"_id":"Rbz95Zy2Yk3Dbpnzq","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":329,"description":"
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If a post discusses running an EA group rather than another type of organization, please use the effective altruism groups tag instea..."},{"_id":"toct8RYvTvgontEts","core":false,"name":"Coefficient Giving","slug":"coefficient-giving","tagRel":{"_id":"RxsB3Ccz8atqRsN7z","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":317,"description":"
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History
Coefficient Giving launched in late 2011, as a partnership between Good Ventures and..."},{"_id":"YopStk3kZ3TcwCYCG","core":false,"name":"Request for proposal","slug":"request-for-proposal","tagRel":{"_id":"TNgCNtw3XSJQGLhaq","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":37,"description":"
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RFPs have been contrasted with..."},{"_id":"HrZ8whku9ov3dKvdX","core":false,"name":"Scalably using labour","slug":"scalably-using-labour","tagRel":{"_id":"Tc8vhrvGCKeNjHpr3","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":62,"description":"
The EA movement's ability to scalably use labour refers to its ability to efficiently allocate many people to valuable work and to recommend valuable actions large segments of the population could take. There have been discussions within EA about the movement's strengths and weaknesses on those fronts, the consequences of that,..."},{"_id":"WtkxKaLPvMDfcw7ss","core":false,"name":"Community infrastructure","slug":"community-infrastructure","tagRel":{"_id":"bCrBW2qmhBvBpAmZD","voteType":null,"baseScore":6},"postCount":406,"description":"
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This can include:
building tools or websites such as wikis, forums, tools, and platforms
of..."},{"_id":"nksRuSzEhEjgLNXWM","core":false,"name":"Career capital","slug":"career-capital","tagRel":{"_id":"cRvfyfei7DqrrygFp","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":108,"description":"
Career capital is the stock of resources that increase the future impact of a person's career. It consists of skills, connections, credentials, and runway.^[1]
According to..."},{"_id":"nPtxAWdzFhXtP3QFy","core":false,"name":"Consultancy","slug":"consultancy","tagRel":{"_id":"iJT5xYY5NCRRweHbP","voteType":null,"baseScore":10},"postCount":50,"description":"
A consultancy is a professional practice that provides expert advice in a particular field or subject.
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Grantmaking is the process by which a government or an organization gives non-repayable funds or products for a particular purpose or project.
Grantmaking focused on top cause areas is one of 80,000 hours \"priority paths\"—the most promising career opportuni..."},{"_id":"cadWfdeB8ZXfZY6F9","core":false,"name":"Centre for Effective Altruism","slug":"centre-for-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"w4huoYnhDBHS5RDvH","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":366,"description":"
The Centre for Effective Altruism (CEA) is a nonprofit organisation that focuses on growing and supporting the effective altruism community. CEA runs the Effective..."},{"_id":"MPa7u5iTd8mszHpwP","core":false,"name":"Coaching","slug":"coaching","tagRel":{"_id":"wKQgCjMk3biGMbbad","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":99,"description":"
Further reading
Wissemann, Anne et al. (2018) Coaches and therapists in the effective altruism & rationality sphere, unpublished.
Related entries
ca..."},{"_id":"uCPFdnpD6e4CCX8nC","core":false,"name":"Research methods","slug":"research-methods","tagRel":{"_id":"zHw4ohj9KzuokrfaR","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":265,"description":"
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The tag can also be used for posts that present their research in such an exemplary way that a reader could learn about effective research methods simply by reading them.
For posts about improving research methods done in science, use the..."},{"_id":"ZCihBFp5P64JCvQY6","core":true,"name":"Community","slug":"community","tagRel":{"_id":"6iGwtQbNwefjiy4uB","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":7474,"description":"
The community topic covers posts about the effective altruism community, as well as applying EA in one's personal life. The tag also applies to posts about the Forum itself, since this is a community space. You should use the community tag if one of the following things is true:
The post is about EA a..."},{"_id":"4CH9vsvzyk4mSKwyZ","core":true,"name":"Career choice","slug":"career-choice","tagRel":{"_id":"qqbtEWZWRfzRnzQja","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":3515,"description":"
Career choice (in effective altruism) is about the ethical and practical considerations relevant to finding a high-impact career.
Although people spend more time on their jobs than on any other activity besides sleep—about 80,000 hours over the course of a typical life..."},{"_id":"EHLmbEmJ2Qd5WfwTb","core":true,"name":"Building effective altruism","slug":"building-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"2s6RshBPfdGDWHC9W","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":7850,"description":"
Building effective altruism refers to the family of interventions aimed at growing, shaping, or otherwise improving effective altruism as a practical and intellectual community.
Examples of building effective altruism include starting..."}]},{"_id":"jfHPBbYFzCrbdEXXd","slug":"how-to-succeed-as-an-early-stage-researcher-the-lean-startup","title":"How to succeed as an early-stage researcher: the “lean startup” approach","url":null,"baseScore":197,"voteCount":122,"commentCount":31,"postedAt":"2021-09-07T11:19:39.574Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2021-09-07T12:17:35.169Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2024-06-07T13:57:58.461Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"ArE6LqLiLRnPh8DJe","slug":"ts","displayName":"ts","username":"tobyshevlane","createdAt":"2017-12-28T21:25:20.253Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":215,"jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":2,"commentCount":4,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"
:)
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I am approaching the end of my AI governance PhD, and I’ve spent about 2.5 years as a researcher at FHI. During that time, I’ve learnt a lot about the formula for successful early-career research.
This post summarises my advice for people in the first couple of years. Research is really hard, and I want people to avoid the mistakes I’ve made.
My argument: At the early stage of your research career, you should think of yourself as an entrepreneur trying to build pr..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"uCPFdnpD6e4CCX8nC","core":false,"name":"Research methods","slug":"research-methods","tagRel":{"_id":"DBCX4L8mQb5e9eH8Y","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":265,"description":"
Use the research methods tag for posts about how to conduct better research.
The tag can also be used for posts that present their research in such an exemplary way that a reader could learn about effective research methods simply by reading them.
For posts about improving research methods done in science, use the..."},{"_id":"hiTSCyrbHi2Dfctwx","core":false,"name":"Research training programs","slug":"research-training-programs","tagRel":{"_id":"GdSnmFhm6YcHjoTzC","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":167,"description":"
Research training programs are programs intended to help participants test their fit for and build their skills in research or in a particular area of research. These programs may often be called internships or summer research fellowships.
Further reading
Aird, Michael (2021)..."},{"_id":"nksRuSzEhEjgLNXWM","core":false,"name":"Career capital","slug":"career-capital","tagRel":{"_id":"xbz6ML4rLLmitFFcb","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":108,"description":"
Career capital is the stock of resources that increase the future impact of a person's career. It consists of skills, connections, credentials, and runway.^[1]
According to..."},{"_id":"4CH9vsvzyk4mSKwyZ","core":true,"name":"Career choice","slug":"career-choice","tagRel":{"_id":"TcA54oa8yyyayey2K","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":3515,"description":"
Career choice (in effective altruism) is about the ethical and practical considerations relevant to finding a high-impact career.
Although people spend more time on their jobs than on any other activity besides sleep—about 80,000 hours over the course of a typical life..."},{"_id":"7zBJLdkj9REcfuZwh","core":false,"name":"Career advising","slug":"career-advising","tagRel":{"_id":"vfHzCxrQ9vDqFbtqz","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":269,"description":"
For posts that offer career advising, discuss better (and worse) types of career advising, etc.
Types of career advice research
One proposed typology of research on career advice distinguishes between career choice research (\"Which career paths are especially impactful?\"), career success research (\"What strategies are..."},{"_id":"TZxL3u4v53Tp5pe7w","core":false,"name":"Research careers","slug":"research-careers","tagRel":{"_id":"phPxZnmxrt23eNwhj","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":90,"description":"
Research into important areas is a potentially very high impact career.
Some of the people who have had the highest impact have been researchers. By developing code breaking machines that allowed the Allies to be far more effective against Nazi U-boats in World War II, mat..."}]},{"_id":"S5yBGo4fnqm2zKMKj","slug":"do-ai-safety-talent-programmes-work-nobody-has-run-the-study","title":"Do AI safety talent programmes work? Nobody has run the study that would tell us.","url":null,"baseScore":183,"voteCount":94,"commentCount":54,"postedAt":"2026-09-07T09:12:18.842Z","curatedDate":"2026-09-18T19:22:19.110Z","frontpageDate":"2026-09-07T15:13:30.474Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":{"imageId":"SocialPreview/lgztqbn5j1gzf7bbstug"},"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2026-10-16T08:48:18.200Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"oTm9BDDRhQ378Rktv","slug":"laura-thomas-walters","displayName":"Laura Thomas-Walters","username":"Laura Thomas-Walters","createdAt":"2026-07-27T15:55:20.986Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":313,"jobTitle":"Head of Impact","organization":"ProVeg International","postCount":8,"commentCount":21,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"
Head of Impact at ProVeg International, where I lead monitoring, evaluation and learning across six impact areas and 14 country offices. Behavioural scientist by training (PhD) and previously Deputy Director of Experimental Research at Yale, directing experimental behavioural research across the US, UK and India, and Senior Advisor to DEFRA's Strategic Behavioural Insights Team.
My research sits at the intersection of behaviour change and systems change: demand reduction in the illegal wildlife trade, climate communication and activism, and the social diffusion of plant-based diets. ~1,400 citations, h-index 20. Mostly I care about whether interventions actually work, and whether anyone bothered to check.
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Headline finding: I audited 17 AI Safety Talent programmes. Zero of 17 have published any comparison group, rejected-applicant follow-up, matched control or randomisation. Not one. Every programme that mentions a counterfactual does it by asking participants to self-report.

Background
At least $70 million..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"hxRMaKvwGqPb43TWB","core":false,"name":"Research","slug":"research","tagRel":{"_id":"uPq48Qi3Yr9KE7kP6","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2712,"description":"
For some of the world’s problems, like many forms of cancer, there are currently no solutions. In such cases, research can be particularly impactful. Even in cases where there are ways of dealing with a problem (like HIV), further research may provide more effective tools (like a ..."},{"_id":"oNiQsBHA3i837sySD","core":true,"name":"AI safety","slug":"ai-safety","tagRel":{"_id":"76EjEAKjYkgdz92Dn","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":7281,"description":"
AI safety is the study of ways to reduce risks posed by artificial intelligence.
Interventions that aim to reduce these risks can be split into:
Technical alignment..."},{"_id":"ct6dCPfJK9jkJnyAc","core":false,"name":"Building the field of AI safety","slug":"building-the-field-of-ai-safety","tagRel":{"_id":"tPPssiQeJaWCpv6dH","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":464,"description":"
Building the field of AI safety refers to the family of interventions aimed at growing, shaping or otherwise improving AI safety as an intellectual community.
Related entries
AI risk..."},{"_id":"CDEKHTGHAqLcJPw5A","core":false,"name":"Impact assessment","slug":"impact-assessment","tagRel":{"_id":"tXC3ny2xRT7raYjmC","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":259,"description":"
Impact assessment is a structured process for evaluating the impact of an intervention. Impact assessments can focus on an intervention's expected impact (ex-ante or prospective impact assessment) or on its actual impact (ex-post or retrospective impact assessment)...."},{"_id":"psBzwdY8ipfCeExJ7","core":true,"name":"Cause prioritization","slug":"cause-prioritization","tagRel":{"_id":"Mih7idKKmg8r5iyDR","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":4098,"description":"
Cause prioritization refers to efforts to find the most pressing problems to work on and compare interventions across different cause areas so that we can do as much good as possible with the resources available to us.
Governments and philanthropists spend considerable resources attempting to do good in the world...."},{"_id":"uCPFdnpD6e4CCX8nC","core":false,"name":"Research methods","slug":"research-methods","tagRel":{"_id":"4Mse6FgWXwYnjNdBC","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":265,"description":"
Use the research methods tag for posts about how to conduct better research.
The tag can also be used for posts that present their research in such an exemplary way that a reader could learn about effective research methods simply by reading them.
For posts about improving research methods done in science, use the..."},{"_id":"G2LQtuW6qoBrsfKEv","core":false,"name":"Counterfactual reasoning","slug":"counterfactual-reasoning","tagRel":{"_id":"rxng9tAumJEwdDLEg","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":37,"description":"
Counterfactual reasoning involves scenarios that will occur if an agent chooses a certain action, or that would have occurred if an agent had chosen an action they did not. For instance, we can consider a counterfactual scenario in which the effective altruism community was called ‘effective giving’ rather than effective al..."},{"_id":"yauh4AaKZcmRKdzFb","core":false,"name":"Criticism of work in effective altruism","slug":"criticism-of-work-in-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"mxJsEjvthZatnsju7","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":223,"description":"
The Criticism of work in effective altruism tag applies to posts critically examining the work, projects, or methodologies of specific individuals, organizations, or initiatives affiliated with the effective altruism (EA) movement or community.
Related tags
..."}]},{"_id":"uJG79y8eji9zALjAd","slug":"let-s-fund-better-science-impact-evaluation-registered","title":"Let's Fund: Better Science impact evaluation. Registered Reports now available in Nature","url":"https://hauke.substack.com/p/lets-fund-what-was-the-impact-of","baseScore":172,"voteCount":69,"commentCount":4,"postedAt":"2023-02-26T15:05:18.850Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2023-02-28T05:53:29.916Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F97d34e5a-b491-462a-8c05-fb9cdaa66905_1108x544.png","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2023-03-07T14:48:55.078Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"qptXbY4PtHXby7S2i","slug":"haukehillebrandt","displayName":"Hauke Hillebrandt","username":"HaukeHillebrandt","createdAt":"2014-12-14T19:18:46.499Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":3922,"jobTitle":"CEO","organization":"hauke.substack.com","postCount":41,"commentCount":442,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"
Follow me on hauke.substack.com
I'm an independent researcher working on AI and other EA topics (Global Priorities Research and Economics).
"},"contents":{"wordCount":721,"htmlHighlight":"
Cross-posted from my blog - inspired by the recent call for more monitoring and evaluation
Hi, it's Hauke, the founder of Let's Fund. We research pressing problems, like climate change or the replication crisis in science, and then crowdfund for particularly effective policy solutions.
Ages ago, you signed up to my newsletter. Now I've evaluated the $1M+ in grants you donated, and they had a..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"W47HrrhkZsDZo9yGd","core":false,"name":"Metascience","slug":"metascience","tagRel":{"_id":"vtCsGeBLfpSGP7GW4","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":109,"description":"
Metascience (also known as meta-research) is the use of scientific methodology to study science itself.
Topics studied by metascience include:
Inefficiencies and misaligned incentives in the academic ecosystem.
Estimations of the value of scientific advances and subsequent prioritization..."},{"_id":"uCPFdnpD6e4CCX8nC","core":false,"name":"Research methods","slug":"research-methods","tagRel":{"_id":"wT9QRev7isg78SHj5","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":265,"description":"
Use the research methods tag for posts about how to conduct better research.
The tag can also be used for posts that present their research in such an exemplary way that a reader could learn about effective research methods simply by reading them.
For posts about improving research methods done in science, use the..."},{"_id":"kEBKfckAoQpXnGzZA","core":false,"name":"Academia","slug":"academia-1","tagRel":{"_id":"w9ZwnwwKtcfXEDbuh","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":155,"description":"
The academia tag is for posts relevant to topics such as how (in)efficient academia is, what influence academia has had and could have, the best ways to leverage or direct academia, and whether people should go into academic or academia-related careers.
Further reading
Whittlestone, Jess (2018)..."},{"_id":"of9xBvR3wpbp6qsZC","core":true,"name":"Policy","slug":"policy","tagRel":{"_id":"cHMaXvn7ggXLtqeXk","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":3262,"description":"
The policy topic is very broad, covering any post about improving government policy (in developing and developed countries alike).
Improving policy
Governments are typically committed to the notion that their policies should be effective. This means that members of the effective altruist community can be in a good..."},{"_id":"hxRMaKvwGqPb43TWB","core":false,"name":"Research","slug":"research","tagRel":{"_id":"wuDQ9fmRinEDBkbm2","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2712,"description":"
For some of the world’s problems, like many forms of cancer, there are currently no solutions. In such cases, research can be particularly impactful. Even in cases where there are ways of dealing with a problem (like HIV), further research may provide more effective tools (like a ..."}]},{"_id":"8R2NffQiCsn3F7hpv","slug":"how-to-generate-research-proposals","title":"How to generate research proposals","url":null,"baseScore":168,"voteCount":85,"commentCount":7,"postedAt":"2019-08-01T16:38:53.790Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2019-12-31T08:37:49.826Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/8R2NffQiCsn3F7hpv/uxlxsow8mxuvjzowrett","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2019-08-01T16:38:53.790Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"GsLh9BFphgxKfTDe8","slug":"jsevillamol","displayName":"Jaime Sevilla","username":"Jsevillamol","createdAt":"2019-03-04T19:24:58.585Z","profileImageId":"Profile/cs3xaei4c1geanb8wbzn","karma":5058,"jobTitle":"Director","organization":"Epoch","postCount":42,"commentCount":255,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"
Director of Epoch, an organization investigating the future of Artificial Intelligence.
Currently working on:
Macroeconomic models of AI takeoff
Trends in Artificial Intelligence
Forecasting cumulative records
Improving forecast aggregation
I am also one of the coordinators of Riesgos Catastróficos Globales, a Spanish-speaking network of experts working on Global Catastrophic Risks.
I also run Connectome Art, an online art gallery where I host art I made using AI.
"},"contents":{"wordCount":2506,"htmlHighlight":"
Epistemic status: The advice I give is based on anecdotic experience, and what works well for me might not transfer well to others, but my past self would have found this article quite useful
As part of the application to FHI’s Summer Fellows Program I had to submit a research proposal, and once I finished my original proposal I had to engage again with the process to select my next research project.
In this article I will explain the particular approach I chose for this..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"uCPFdnpD6e4CCX8nC","core":false,"name":"Research methods","slug":"research-methods","tagRel":{"_id":"JBkHyJjwyDj4C5peK","voteType":null,"baseScore":6},"postCount":265,"description":"
Use the research methods tag for posts about how to conduct better research.
The tag can also be used for posts that present their research in such an exemplary way that a reader could learn about effective research methods simply by reading them.
For posts about improving research methods done in science, use the..."}]},{"_id":"dCjz5mgQdiv57wWGz","slug":"ingredients-for-creating-disruptive-research-teams","title":"Ingredients for creating disruptive research teams","url":null,"baseScore":159,"voteCount":70,"commentCount":17,"postedAt":"2019-05-16T16:23:41.047Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2019-05-31T13:49:07.169Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":null,"readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2023-09-23T00:49:59.961Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"DffaEP3AwbAdQz8jj","slug":"storges","displayName":"stefan.torges","username":"storges","createdAt":"2018-11-12T12:57:13.180Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":1873,"jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":20,"commentCount":25,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":null},"contents":{"wordCount":16264,"htmlHighlight":"
Introduction
\n
This post tries to answer the question of what qualities make some research teams more effective than others. I was particularly interested in learning more about “disruptive” research teams, i.e. research teams that have an outsized impact on (1) the research landscape itself (e.g. by paving the way for new fields or establishing a new paradigm), and/or (2) society at large (e.g. by shaping technology or policy).^{..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"EJb2KZYkRs8rtNG7f","core":false,"name":"Center on Long-Term Risk","slug":"center-on-long-term-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"D4RKJdnxMFjMACkt8","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":74,"description":"}
The Center on Long-Term Risk (CLR) is a research institute that aims to mitigate s-risks from advanced AI. Its research agenda focuses on encouraging cooperative behavior in and..."},{"_id":"W47HrrhkZsDZo9yGd","core":false,"name":"Metascience","slug":"metascience","tagRel":{"_id":"KAgCJWxcDg6EMaGkW","voteType":null,"baseScore":7},"postCount":109,"description":"
Metascience (also known as meta-research) is the use of scientific methodology to study science itself.
Topics studied by metascience include:
Inefficiencies and misaligned incentives in the academic ecosystem.
Estimations of the value of scientific advances and subsequent prioritization..."},{"_id":"X3KB4vCDhbRrC4qTP","core":false,"name":"Forum Prize","slug":"forum-prize","tagRel":{"_id":"WaYneeM3hutfWvajk","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":136,"description":"
The Forum Prize tag is used for posts that won the EA Forum Prize, as well as posts that announce the winning posts and comments.
For posts awarding an independent prize, use the Prize tag.
What is the Forum P..."},{"_id":"kEBKfckAoQpXnGzZA","core":false,"name":"Academia","slug":"academia-1","tagRel":{"_id":"p4eeLhzaB9MYHwpEP","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":155,"description":"
The academia tag is for posts relevant to topics such as how (in)efficient academia is, what influence academia has had and could have, the best ways to leverage or direct academia, and whether people should go into academic or academia-related careers.
Further reading
Whittlestone, Jess (2018)..."},{"_id":"NNdytpR2E4jYKQCNd","core":false,"name":"Operations","slug":"operations","tagRel":{"_id":"sC8QwQiZK5oEbdNbD","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":271,"description":"
The operations tag is for posts related to operations roles and tasks, meaning, broadly, those which \"enable everyone else in [an] organisation to focus on their core tasks and maximise their productivity\".^[1]..."},{"_id":"yTyKr6WCeJGSqLtt3","core":false,"name":"Management & mentoring","slug":"management-and-mentoring","tagRel":{"_id":"opqztBsFXrbXa5s2Q","voteType":null,"baseScore":5},"postCount":213,"description":"
Further reading
Aird, Michael (2021) Collection of collections of resources relevant to (research) management, mentorship, training, etc., unpublished.
Koehler, Arden & Keiran Harris (2020)..."},{"_id":"uCPFdnpD6e4CCX8nC","core":false,"name":"Research methods","slug":"research-methods","tagRel":{"_id":"h92AaPk5E9tAiQrRb","voteType":null,"baseScore":11},"postCount":265,"description":"
Use the research methods tag for posts about how to conduct better research.
The tag can also be used for posts that present their research in such an exemplary way that a reader could learn about effective research methods simply by reading them.
For posts about improving research methods done in science, use the..."},{"_id":"tx3q9KW35B3M6MM4h","core":false,"name":"Organization strategy","slug":"organization-strategy","tagRel":{"_id":"aKb6kihQwsN6xY7ZF","voteType":null,"baseScore":9},"postCount":329,"description":"
The organization strategy tag covers posts about running organizations well (whether for-profit or nonprofit).
If a post discusses running an EA group rather than another type of organization, please use the effective altruism groups tag instea..."},{"_id":"GQiD9puGQ5fWYLWS8","core":false,"name":"Practical","slug":"practical","tagRel":{"_id":"QCgPf6r8jJXpdwXzY","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":283,"description":"
Practical collects posts that offer practical advice, tips, recommendations, or are otherwise meant to be practically useful.
Related entries
college advice | personal developm..."},{"_id":"4dikNJgjJRYB66Eck","core":false,"name":"Productivity","slug":"productivity","tagRel":{"_id":"SFXx3FtDE9CdxAKnu","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":167,"description":"
Productivity, in the context of effective altruism, refers to the practices, tools, and mental models that help individuals or teams increase the amount and quality of impact-focused work they can accomplish over time. While often associated with efficiency and output, productivity in EA is typically framed with an emphasis on sustainability..."}]},{"_id":"7utb4Fc9aPvM6SAEo","slug":"frank-feedback-given-to-very-junior-researchers","title":"Frank Feedback Given To Very Junior Researchers","url":null,"baseScore":158,"voteCount":82,"commentCount":23,"postedAt":"2021-09-01T10:55:23.678Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2021-09-01T15:49:37.478Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2021-12-03T00:26:11.707Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"YRCdk7cvPT6pyiph9","slug":"nunosempere","displayName":"NunoSempere","username":"NunoSempere","createdAt":"2018-11-15T15:52:18.347Z","profileImageId":"Profile/k878ddoduabhtngbawob","karma":13987,"jobTitle":"Director, Head of Foresight","organization":"Sentinel","postCount":107,"commentCount":1294,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"$78"},"contents":{"wordCount":1407,"htmlHighlight":"
Over the last year, I have found myself giving feedback on various drafts, something that I'm generally quite happy to do. Recently, I got to give two variations of this same feedback in quick succession, so I noticed the commonalities, and then realized that these commonalities were also present on past pieces of feedback. I thought I'd write the general template up, in case others might find it valuable.
\n
High level comments
\n
\n
You are working at the wrong level of abstrac..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"uCPFdnpD6e4CCX8nC","core":false,"name":"Research methods","slug":"research-methods","tagRel":{"_id":"ekmLHKeQaXdjRFirD","voteType":null,"baseScore":6},"postCount":265,"description":"
Use the research methods tag for posts about how to conduct better research.
The tag can also be used for posts that present their research in such an exemplary way that a reader could learn about effective research methods simply by reading them.
For posts about improving research methods done in science, use the..."},{"_id":"pLwWCPoSizr8pbLdy","core":false,"name":"Independent research","slug":"independent-research","tagRel":{"_id":"oCFDGmasrt4pGPNZ7","voteType":null,"baseScore":9},"postCount":86,"description":"
Independent research is research conducted by an individual who is not employed by any organisation or institution, or who is employed but is conducting this research separately from that. This person may or may not have funding for this research (e.g., via grants). Research that is done by two or more people collaborating, but..."},{"_id":"yTyKr6WCeJGSqLtt3","core":false,"name":"Management & mentoring","slug":"management-and-mentoring","tagRel":{"_id":"gWdTAAiprWL24yWye","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":213,"description":"
Further reading
Aird, Michael (2021) Collection of collections of resources relevant to (research) management, mentorship, training, etc., unpublished.
Koehler, Arden & Keiran Harris (2020)..."},{"_id":"mxyrHDrmiYq3MR6oD","core":false,"name":"Writing advice","slug":"writing-advice","tagRel":{"_id":"G5wudcxwCBea24Drf","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":83,"description":"
This topic or tag is for discussions about how to write better.
Related entries
writing advice | types of post and content |..."},{"_id":"GQiD9puGQ5fWYLWS8","core":false,"name":"Practical","slug":"practical","tagRel":{"_id":"5qdomZbvyYzrWvNMT","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":283,"description":"
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Related entries
college advice | personal developm..."}]},{"_id":"SatDeTkLtHiMrtDjc","slug":"learning-by-writing","title":"Learning By Writing","url":null,"baseScore":154,"voteCount":76,"commentCount":13,"postedAt":"2022-02-22T15:39:53.803Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2022-02-23T05:41:36.089Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2025-11-26T12:06:08.782Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"9Fg4woeMPHoGa6kDA","slug":"holdenkarnofsky","displayName":"Holden Karnofsky","username":"HoldenKarnofsky","createdAt":"2015-10-28T05:07:53.017Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":8954,"jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":100,"commentCount":198,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":null},"contents":{"wordCount":3071,"htmlHighlight":"
Cross-posted from Cold Takes
\n\n
\nI have very detailed opinions on lots of topics. I sometimes get asked how I do this, which might just be people making fun of me, but I choose to interpret it as a real question, and I’m going to sketch an answer here. \n
\n
\nYou can think of this as a sort of sequel to Minimal-Trust Investigations. That piece talked about how inves..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"8WsPHtGnsPSvxeeST","core":false,"name":"Personal development","slug":"personal-development","tagRel":{"_id":"JoST8jcha9PiwCCwr","voteType":null,"baseScore":5},"postCount":394,"description":"
Personal development collects posts about learning skills, being more productive, etc.
Related entries
practical
..."},{"_id":"uCPFdnpD6e4CCX8nC","core":false,"name":"Research methods","slug":"research-methods","tagRel":{"_id":"CtiiBH7cEu8E3vXzj","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":265,"description":"
Use the research methods tag for posts about how to conduct better research.
The tag can also be used for posts that present their research in such an exemplary way that a reader could learn about effective research methods simply by reading them.
For posts about improving research methods done in science, use the..."}]},{"_id":"ScYjnmaAkhkFKfJYX","slug":"feedback-i-ve-been-giving-to-junior-x-risk-researchers","title":"Feedback I've been giving to junior x-risk researchers","url":null,"baseScore":147,"voteCount":79,"commentCount":2,"postedAt":"2022-08-15T20:46:24.028Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2022-08-17T13:29:01.874Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2022-08-17T00:53:09.109Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"oZa9wz3nG2wgW98az","slug":"will-aldred","displayName":"Will Aldred","username":"Will Aldred","createdAt":"2021-04-23T20:11:16.281Z","profileImageId":"Profile/ofdnepsya0vvsgsgvrqe","karma":5352,"jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":22,"commentCount":269,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":""},"contents":{"wordCount":1429,"htmlHighlight":"
Context
The CERI and SERI summer research fellowships are each coming to a close. My roles – co-leading CERI, and leading SERI's nuclear risk cause area – involve giving feedback to fellows on their research.^{..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"4CH9vsvzyk4mSKwyZ","core":true,"name":"Career choice","slug":"career-choice","tagRel":{"_id":"YC3kCjBdns9FiYybe","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":3515,"description":"}
Career choice (in effective altruism) is about the ethical and practical considerations relevant to finding a high-impact career.
Although people spend more time on their jobs than on any other activity besides sleep—about 80,000 hours over the course of a typical life..."},{"_id":"rrHWYw3NMJ9tmpSPi","core":false,"name":"Stanford Existential Risks Initiative","slug":"stanford-existential-risks-initiative","tagRel":{"_id":"doXDGANFurEiCp7x4","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":30,"description":"
Stanford Existential Risks Initiative (SERI) is a collaboration between faculty and students of Stanford University dedicated to mitigating global catastrophic risks...."},{"_id":"mxyrHDrmiYq3MR6oD","core":false,"name":"Writing advice","slug":"writing-advice","tagRel":{"_id":"wh3NWLnLwDCPeGR8Q","voteType":null,"baseScore":12},"postCount":83,"description":"
This topic or tag is for discussions about how to write better.
Related entries
writing advice | types of post and content |..."},{"_id":"ZfCuaYAhXLfhYe3eG","core":false,"name":"Existential Risk Alliance","slug":"existential-risk-alliance","tagRel":{"_id":"mEJXRMdS2hsvDRwct","voteType":null,"baseScore":5},"postCount":21,"description":"
Formerly the research fellowship side of the Cambridge Existential Risks Initiative, the Existential Risk Alliance (ERA) is a network of academics and students, mostly b..."},{"_id":"hiTSCyrbHi2Dfctwx","core":false,"name":"Research training programs","slug":"research-training-programs","tagRel":{"_id":"dMkkWcbzgKma6NgEi","voteType":null,"baseScore":8},"postCount":167,"description":"
Research training programs are programs intended to help participants test their fit for and build their skills in research or in a particular area of research. These programs may often be called internships or summer research fellowships.
Further reading
Aird, Michael (2021)..."},{"_id":"A7Kgc9sMmRcXkWK7S","core":false,"name":"Field-building","slug":"field-building","tagRel":{"_id":"2AWiyvtzRbBjmufah","voteType":null,"baseScore":6},"postCount":240,"description":"
Field-building refers to influencing existing fields of research or advocacy or developing new ones, through advocacy, creating organisations, or funding people to work in the field.
Examples of field-building activities include scholarships and teaching buyouts (e.g...."},{"_id":"EHLmbEmJ2Qd5WfwTb","core":true,"name":"Building effective altruism","slug":"building-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"nsbJaJGg9hpE9jLbk","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":7850,"description":"
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Examples of building effective altruism include starting..."},{"_id":"pLwWCPoSizr8pbLdy","core":false,"name":"Independent research","slug":"independent-research","tagRel":{"_id":"zyNJkepznPLTEE95t","voteType":null,"baseScore":7},"postCount":86,"description":"
Independent research is research conducted by an individual who is not employed by any organisation or institution, or who is employed but is conducting this research separately from that. This person may or may not have funding for this research (e.g., via grants). Research that is done by two or more people collaborating, but..."},{"_id":"yTyKr6WCeJGSqLtt3","core":false,"name":"Management & mentoring","slug":"management-and-mentoring","tagRel":{"_id":"Rjj4gqJq3vrEedny9","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":213,"description":"
Further reading
Aird, Michael (2021) Collection of collections of resources relevant to (research) management, mentorship, training, etc., unpublished.
Koehler, Arden & Keiran Harris (2020)..."},{"_id":"LPrJwBBfmAAagvuHt","core":false,"name":"Reasoning transparency","slug":"reasoning-transparency","tagRel":{"_id":"Ya7iGoCwGnoRrqGS3","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":35,"description":"
Reasoning transparency is a form of transparency that prioritizes the sharing of information about underlying general thinking processes and philosophy and the communication of this information in ways that make it easier for the recipient to determine what up..."},{"_id":"GQiD9puGQ5fWYLWS8","core":false,"name":"Practical","slug":"practical","tagRel":{"_id":"BJsxRtud8HutvAbAY","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":283,"description":"
Practical collects posts that offer practical advice, tips, recommendations, or are otherwise meant to be practically useful.
Related entries
college advice | personal developm..."},{"_id":"uCPFdnpD6e4CCX8nC","core":false,"name":"Research methods","slug":"research-methods","tagRel":{"_id":"pZ7gdK7oPWB9yjonC","voteType":null,"baseScore":8},"postCount":265,"description":"
Use the research methods tag for posts about how to conduct better research.
The tag can also be used for posts that present their research in such an exemplary way that a reader could learn about effective research methods simply by reading them.
For posts about improving research methods done in science, use the..."}]},{"_id":"uoYbnBLmXkKD8J4gT","slug":"the-fda-demanded-my-employer-bury-inconvenient-clinical","title":"The FDA demanded my employer bury inconvenient clinical trial data. What should I do?","url":null,"baseScore":139,"voteCount":60,"commentCount":13,"postedAt":"2022-04-15T12:47:01.849Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2022-04-15T23:01:17.608Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2022-04-19T00:28:50.505Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"gFDzQoPf9csgCdKsC","slug":"throwaway641","displayName":"Throwaway641","username":"Throwaway641","createdAt":"2022-04-15T08:30:56.067Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":138,"jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":1,"commentCount":0,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":null},"contents":{"wordCount":1762,"htmlHighlight":"
Background
A little over a year ago, my employer submitted trial data to the FDA relating to the efficacy of one of the company's diagnostic products that was, at that time, already being used under an EUA (Emergency Use Authorization). The new data involved a direct performance comparison between the company's product and a class of competing products already on the market. We planned to publish the data, but shortly before doing so, we shared it with the FDA.
Per my employer's..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"8FxWuRZCwoxzQPkWM","core":false,"name":"United States","slug":"united-states","tagRel":{"_id":"ayufqm9TJjS4YyGDb","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":185,"description":"
The United States tag is used for posts that are about the United States, including (but not restricted to) policy, politics, and..."},{"_id":"uCPFdnpD6e4CCX8nC","core":false,"name":"Research methods","slug":"research-methods","tagRel":{"_id":"fEaZSBGBckzdtEcko","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":265,"description":"
Use the research methods tag for posts about how to conduct better research.
The tag can also be used for posts that present their research in such an exemplary way that a reader could learn about effective research methods simply by reading them.
For posts about improving research methods done in science, use the..."},{"_id":"W47HrrhkZsDZo9yGd","core":false,"name":"Metascience","slug":"metascience","tagRel":{"_id":"vQhjhS9okEqC7gFk8","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":109,"description":"
Metascience (also known as meta-research) is the use of scientific methodology to study science itself.
Topics studied by metascience include:
Inefficiencies and misaligned incentives in the academic ecosystem.
Estimations of the value of scientific advances and subsequent prioritization..."}]},{"_id":"ECYrN8aY42KyQbPZe","slug":"itn-201-pitfalls-in-itn-botecs","title":"ITN 201: pitfalls in ITN BOTECs","url":null,"baseScore":137,"voteCount":35,"commentCount":6,"postedAt":"2025-08-13T04:01:36.940Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2025-08-13T11:22:31.735Z","draft":false,"deletedDraft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":{"imageId":"SocialPreview/vw4dyxtnsydg4dipfrot"},"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/ECYrN8aY42KyQbPZe/uyj1qhwjiy9yts6k7tf7","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2025-08-20T13:39:35.445Z","sharingSettings":{"anyoneWithLinkCan":"none","explicitlySharedUsersCan":"comment"},"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"SuPnfB9qqKWsucNzm","slug":"lizka","displayName":"Lizka","username":"Lizka","createdAt":"2019-11-06T06:22:18.538Z","profileImageId":"Profile/llwmfw62hcsq2vuk1n7g","karma":18089,"jobTitle":"Researcher","organization":"Forethought","postCount":154,"commentCount":581,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"$79"},"contents":{"wordCount":3650,"htmlHighlight":"
The fact that the ITN framework^[1] can help us prioritize between problems feels almost magical to me.
But when I see ITN BOTECs in the wild, I’m ofte..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"yauh4AaKZcmRKdzFb","core":false,"name":"Criticism of work in effective altruism","slug":"criticism-of-work-in-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"gWhB58ptM526j5axv","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":223,"description":"
The Criticism of work in effective altruism tag applies to posts critically examining the work, projects, or methodologies of specific individuals, organizations, or initiatives affiliated with the effective altruism (EA) movement or community.
Related tags
..."},{"_id":"eSWSZv3oF6sydzD9L","core":false,"name":"ITN framework","slug":"itn-framework","tagRel":{"_id":"zeamKBEHHJvaG4DXt","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":86,"description":"
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Measuring how much value interventions create can help us to evaluate their cost-effectiveness.
Ideally, we would measure the things we value directly. Unfortunately, we often value things that are difficult to measure, so that we must instead measure other v..."},{"_id":"psBzwdY8ipfCeExJ7","core":true,"name":"Cause prioritization","slug":"cause-prioritization","tagRel":{"_id":"vSTXtWfvRkCZC2Ye3","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":4098,"description":"
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Governments and philanthropists spend considerable resources attempting to do good in the world...."},{"_id":"uCPFdnpD6e4CCX8nC","core":false,"name":"Research methods","slug":"research-methods","tagRel":{"_id":"2nor4T5esncFkwi4Q","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":265,"description":"
Use the research methods tag for posts about how to conduct better research.
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For posts about improving research methods done in science, use the..."},{"_id":"rdxSaRhkHxwjbNkD7","core":false,"name":"Cost-effectiveness analysis","slug":"cost-effectiveness-analysis","tagRel":{"_id":"fuGf8umipvtxvRXbt","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":498,"description":"
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..."},{"_id":"aJnrnnobcBNWRsfAw","core":true,"name":"Forecasting","slug":"forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"ZCbhpWfFoCKAxHd5y","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":2082,"description":"
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\n
\"Where do new [algorithms] come from? I keep reading about someone who invented [an algorithm] to do something-or-other but there's no mention of how.\"
\n
A shrug of robed shoulders. \"Where do new books come from, Mr. Potter? Those who read many books sometimes become able to write them in turn. How? No one knows.\"
\n
\"There are books on how to write -\"
\n
\"Reading them will not make you a famous playwright. After all such advice is acco..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"uCPFdnpD6e4CCX8nC","core":false,"name":"Research methods","slug":"research-methods","tagRel":{"_id":"3eoxLcFY7yHpvoPh3","voteType":null,"baseScore":6},"postCount":265,"description":"
Use the research methods tag for posts about how to conduct better research.
The tag can also be used for posts that present their research in such an exemplary way that a reader could learn about effective research methods simply by reading them.
For posts about improving research methods done in science, use the..."},{"_id":"9GQf4Ec6ckqvnPBSw","core":false,"name":"AI alignment","slug":"ai-alignment","tagRel":{"_id":"SbGQfJugR7cZR9CLq","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":1237,"description":"
AI alignment is research on how to align AI systems with human or moral goals.
Evaluation
80,000 Hours rates AI alignment a \"highest priority area\": a problem at the to..."},{"_id":"mMecqGKjsurhiSKHa","core":false,"name":"Disentanglement research","slug":"disentanglement-research","tagRel":{"_id":"pHjks9ox6wqKABEdE","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":29,"description":"
Disentanglement research refers to \"a type of research that involves disentangling ideas and questions in a “pre-paradigmatic” area where the core concepts, questions, and methodologies are under-defined.\" When coining the term, Carrick Flynn gave..."},{"_id":"oNiQsBHA3i837sySD","core":true,"name":"AI safety","slug":"ai-safety","tagRel":{"_id":"4yi3MNjTvYFsxAmYr","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":7281,"description":"
AI safety is the study of ways to reduce risks posed by artificial intelligence.
Interventions that aim to reduce these risks can be split into:
Technical alignment..."}]}],"initialLimit":15,"loadMoreLimit":50}]]}]}] 73:null