74:I[392826,["$2","$3","$4","$5","$6","$7","$8","$9","$a","$b","$c","$d","$2a","$2b"],"default"] 75:I[836637,["$2","$3","$4","$5","$6","$7","$8","$9","$a","$b","$c","$d","$2a","$2b"],"default"] 76:T145f,

I run Sentinel, a team that seeks to anticipate and respond to large-scale risks. You can read our weekly minutes here. I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and generally becoming more formidable. I'm also a fairly good forecaster: I started out on predicting on Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell, but now do most of my forecasting through Samotsvety, of which Scott Alexander writes:

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

77:T145f,

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

78:T145f,

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

79:T145f,

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

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Summary

This document seeks to outline why I feel uneasy about high existential risk estimates from AGI (e.g., 80% doom by 2070). When I try to verbalize this, I view considerations like

selection effects at the level of which arguments are discovered and distributed
community epistemic problems, and
increased uncertainty due to chains of reasoning with imperfect concepts

as real and important.

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Further reading
Melchin, Denise (2021)..."},{"_id":"gfHzi2LEAFZHepiBH","core":false,"name":"Samotsvety Forecasting","slug":"samotsvety-forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"GPDabnbSSoByjmgCo","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":11,"description":"
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You can give me anonymous feedback here. I often change my mind and don't necessarily endorse past writings.
"},"contents":{"wordCount":7715,"htmlHighlight":"
Cross-posted from Foxy Scout
\n
Overview
\n
What We Owe The Future (WWOTF) by Will MacAskill has recently been released with much fanfare. While I strongly agree that future people matter morally and we should act based on this, I think the book isn’t clear enough about MacAskill’s views on longtermist priorities, a..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"aFJtBqxDkRX4Dj3m4","core":false,"name":"Community epistemic health","slug":"community-epistemic-health","tagRel":{"_id":"DY9JL575qjRTwxq2G","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":206,"description":"
The community epistemic health tag applies to posts addressing the current state of epistemic health in the effective altruism community, as well as posts discussing how we might improve the epistemic health of the community.
Effective altruism is about working out how to do as much good as we can using evidence and reason..."},{"_id":"aEfhhqymeFsdhDQLk","core":false,"name":"Criticism and Red Teaming Contest","slug":"criticism-and-red-teaming-contest","tagRel":{"_id":"SftaMziHzPbGfEcqb","voteType":null,"baseScore":13},"postCount":283,"description":"
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Cotra, Ajeya (2020) ..."},{"_id":"psBzwdY8ipfCeExJ7","core":true,"name":"Cause prioritization","slug":"cause-prioritization","tagRel":{"_id":"kHzmJFhEqgBcLM4H6","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":4110,"description":"
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documentaries | ..."},{"_id":"7MDBDhPJezCqvgMg2","core":false,"name":"SPC framework","slug":"spc-framework","tagRel":{"_id":"tBKGEFNJ8oTKrR7wC","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":9,"description":"
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  After recent events in Ukraine, Samotsvety convened to update our probabilities of nuclear war. In March 2022, at the beginning of the Ukraine war, we were at ~0.01% that London would be hit with a nuclear weapon in the next month. Now, we are at ~0.02% for the next 1-3 months, and at 16% that Russia uses any type of nuclear weapon..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"zqNybc7AuKEYYwWRq","slug":"misha_yagudin","karma":2236,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"Misha_Yagudin","createdAt":"2019-02-02T11:25:47.115+00:00","postCount":3,"displayName":"Misha_Yagudin","commentCount":269,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":"
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  Crossposted to LessWrong and Foxy Scout
  Introduction
  In my review of What We..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"zqNybc7AuKEYYwWRq","slug":"misha_yagudin","karma":2236,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"Misha_Yagudin","createdAt":"2019-02-02T11:25:47.115+00:00","postCount":3,"displayName":"Misha_Yagudin","commentCount":269,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":"
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  Thanks to Misha Yagudin, Eli Lifland, Jonathan Mann, Juan Cambeiro, Gregory Lewis, @belikewater, and Daniel Filan for forecasts. Thanks to Jacob Hilton for writing up an earlier analysis from which we drew heavily. Thanks to Clay Graubard for sanity checking and to Daniel Filan for independent analysis. This document was written in collaboration with Eli and Misha, and we thank those who commented on an earlier version.
  Overview
  In light of the war..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"pMCrqiBBop9ed8NBf","slug":"elifland","karma":2962,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"elifland","createdAt":"2018-08-26T10:25:40.485+00:00","postCount":14,"displayName":"elifland","commentCount":155,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":"
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  The below comment was written by J. Peter Scoblic and edited by Josh Rosenberg. Peter is a senior fellow with the International Security Program at New America, where he researches strategic foresight, prediction, and the future of nuclear weapons. He has also served as deputy staff director of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, where he worked on approval of the New START agreement, and he is..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"ee66CtAMYurQreWBH","core":true,"name":"Existential risk","slug":"existential-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"ausSKXHDs43Nf2KBg","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":4381,"description":"
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  Previously: Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts.
  Our colleagues at Epoch recently asked us to update our AI timelines estimate for their upcoming literature review on TAI timelines. We met on 2023-01-21 to discuss our predictions about when advanced AI systems will arrive.
  Forecasts:
  Definition of AGI
  We used the followi..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"LDGdEmRhDauvzTfYk","slug":"jonathanmann","karma":116,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"JonathanMann","createdAt":"2022-01-17T03:28:04.295+00:00","postCount":0,"displayName":"JonathanMann","commentCount":1,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":null,"profileImageId":null},{"_id":"YRCdk7cvPT6pyiph9","slug":"nunosempere","karma":13987,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":"Director, Head of Foresight","username":"NunoSempere","createdAt":"2018-11-15T15:52:18.347+00:00","postCount":107,"displayName":"NunoSempere","commentCount":1294,"organization":"Sentinel","biographyHtml":"$79","profileImageId":"Profile/k878ddoduabhtngbawob"}],"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"EHXNGqENrziYQJsox","core":false,"name":"AI forecasting","slug":"ai-forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"mGtbREx7Cd2eSbrHC","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":545,"description":"
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  TLDR
  We are creating a database to collect base rates for various categories of events. You can find the database here and can suggest new base rate categories for us to look into here.
  Project Summary
  The base rate database project collects base rates for different categories of events and makes them available to researcher..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"aJnrnnobcBNWRsfAw","core":true,"name":"Forecasting","slug":"forecasting","tagRel":{"_id":"xtBG46Ejky3CpD68t","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2086,"description":"
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  Recently I had a conversation with Eli Lifland about the AI Alignment landscape. Eli Lifland has been a forecaster at Samotsvety and has been investigating said landscape.
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  [edited to include full text]
  Disclaimers
  The probabilities listed are contingent on SCOTUS issuing a ruling on this case. An updated numerical forecast on that happening, particularly in light of the NC Supreme Court’s decision to rehear Harper v Hall, may be forthcoming.
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Improving policy

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