75:I[392826,["$2","$3","$4","$5","$6","$7","$8","$9","$a","$b","$c","$d","$e","$f","$2c","$2d"],"default"] 76:I[836637,["$2","$3","$4","$5","$6","$7","$8","$9","$a","$b","$c","$d","$e","$f","$2c","$2d"],"default"] 77:T145f,

I run Sentinel, a team that seeks to anticipate and respond to large-scale risks. You can read our weekly minutes here. I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and generally becoming more formidable. I'm also a fairly good forecaster: I started out on predicting on Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell, but now do most of my forecasting through Samotsvety, of which Scott Alexander writes:

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

78:T560,

A Melbourne-based Primary Care Physician and PhD in Public Health working on improving institutional decision-making through tabletop exercising through The Long Game Project

Expertise:
Public Health | Game Design | Tabletop Exercises | Pandemic Prevention | Forecasting | Decision Making | Behavioural Economics | Philanthropy

Career highlights:
Behavioural Insights work for Vic Gov during early COVID, PhD Excellence Scholarship, Aus Primary Care Trainee Doctor of the Year 2018, John Monash and Rhodes Scholarship runner-up. Dan has also represented Australia in two sports internationally for Australia, with a general interest in elite performance.

He is an ambassador of @Giving What We Can, a member of @High Impact Professionals, @High Impact Medicine mentor and High Impact Athletes

You will find Dan cycling, playing tabletop games or listening to podcasts when not working.

79:T560,

7a:T560,

7b:T560,

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[October 2022 edit: See here for our current progress.]

Motivation

See Hinges and crises for expanded explanation.

The hinge of history

So far, long-termist efforts to change th..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"G2BPn6M22ciugvGWm","slug":"jan_kulveit","karma":5018,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"Jan_Kulveit","createdAt":"2017-12-25T12:28:21.072+00:00","postCount":34,"displayName":"Jan_Kulveit","commentCount":228,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":"

Studying behaviour and interactions of boundedly rational agents, AI alignment and complex systems.

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Biosecurity covers the procedures, practices and other measures used to manage risks from biological agents (e.g. viruses, bacteria) or their products (e.g. toxins).

Terminology

The term \"biosecurity\" has different meanings in different contexts. As a few examples:

In agriculture, biosecurity usually ref..."},{"_id":"qfhG5EdhTr5FNRXoi","core":false,"name":"Job listing (closed)","slug":"job-listing-closed","tagRel":{"_id":"FK8XDFGLCJKx5Zsnd","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":202,"description":"
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Related entries
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Job listing (open)
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Let's make nice things with biology. Working on nucleic acid synthesis screening at IBBIS. Also into dual-use risk assessment, synthetic biology, lab automation, event production, donating to global health. From Toronto, lived in Paris and Santiago, currently in the SF Bay.
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Here are some readings (+courses, videos, and podcasts) to help you get oriented in biosecurity and biorisk reduction.
\n
My favourite items are bolded. Resources I have not directly vetted, but which have been recommended strongly by others, are marked with a *.
\n
This list is a bit biased towards US researchers and organizations, in part because many of the readings were done in 2018-2019 with the East Bay Biosecurity Group..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"iovGG2wTaAQZD8sDj","core":false,"name":"Dual-use","slug":"dual-use","tagRel":{"_id":"6epPDmM7KeCngm8xy","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":54,"description":"
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Further reading
Aird, Michael (2020) Sugg..."},{"_id":"ee66CtAMYurQreWBH","core":true,"name":"Existential risk","slug":"existential-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"xgeoeTQhN9L79HTDb","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":4374,"description":"
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Terminology
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  Cofounder of the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance and EA Geneva.
  \n"},"contents":{"wordCount":6389,"htmlHighlight":"
  - We thank Jacob Arbeid for his immensely helpful edits & comments.
  Summary
  A year ago, we launched the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance (SI). In this post, we
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  - Outline plans for the..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"Dsf2fK5hcZBQnwkRj","slug":"maxime","karma":172,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"maxime","createdAt":"2018-12-28T20:14:48.896+00:00","postCount":3,"displayName":"maxime","commentCount":1,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":"
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    4. Get Involved!
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        \n
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        Summary
        Complexity science is a field which aims to understand systems composed of many interacting parts. I believe it is relevant to a number of EA cause areas, and has several features that could help in realising the goals of effective altruism:
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        $\"The$
        “No pilot would dare to fly a commercial airliner without significant training in a flight simulator … yet decision-makers are expected to make critical decisions relying on ‘theory’, ‘experience’, ‘intuition’, ‘gut feeling’, or less” - de Suarez et al 2012.
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        Hi! I am a program management professional building strategy, operations, and partnerships for early-stage organizations to maximize their potential and societal impact. I'm currently building my exposure and expertise within the EA space.
        
        My primary interests are in improving institutional decision-making, enabling positive social justice and global poverty outcomes in developing countries, and decoding behavioural science drivers influencing realities with respect to gender, youth and mental health.
        
        Currently:
        Management Consultant @ The Long Game Project
        COO @ Technology Strategy Roleplay (Intelligence Rising)
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        LGP year in review
        Highlights
        Learnings
        Free Content
        Game system
        Experts needed
        But first, a wholesome photo of us on 'launch day' over a year ago now.
        ..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"HfJrwPaKgmTKfoxt9","slug":"sanjana-kashyap-1","karma":168,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":"Management Consultant","username":"Sanjana Kashyap","createdAt":"2022-10-11T07:55:58.976+00:00","postCount":0,"displayName":"Sanjana Kashyap","commentCount":0,"organization":"Freelance","biographyHtml":"
        Hi! I am a program management professional building strategy, operations, and partnerships for early-stage organizations to maximize their potential and societal impact. I'm currently building my exposure and expertise within the EA space.
        
        My primary interests are in improving institutional decision-making, enabling positive social justice and global poverty outcomes in developing countries, and decoding behavioural science drivers influencing realities with respect to gender, youth and mental health.
        
        Currently:
        Management Consultant @ The Long Game Project
        COO @ Technology Strategy Roleplay (Intelligence Rising)
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        The policy topic is very broad, covering any post about improving government policy (in developing and developed countries alike).
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        I am a research engineer working on AI safety at DeepMind. Formerly working at Improbable on simulations for decision making
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        I'm interested in AGI safety, complexity science, software engineering, models and simulations.
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        Summary
        Epidemiological computer simulations are well suited to modelling disease spread. These can be integrated with simulation models of other domains such as economics and supply chains to understand the second order effects of pandemics. Agent based simulations can help test interventions for managing disease spread at a granular level. Such simulations had an impact on decision making d..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"QBcQD59hhPEhdotQL","core":false,"name":"Tabletop exercises","slug":"tabletop-exercises","tagRel":{"_id":"dPmxc8QxFqJmaNYmz","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":16,"description":"
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        What if a pandemic capable of killing millions of people appeared? How would we react? How early would we be able to understand the true level of the threat? The danger posed by Coronavirus is quite unclear at this time and the issue hardly seems neglected, yet it is extremely important to be prepared for the next pandemic. It's one thing to prepare plans in the abstract, against imaginary scenarios, quite another to go up against a real, unknown threat.
        What if this was a real cat..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"FjQFMA2SuYTQ4ZcJ7","core":false,"name":"COVID-19 pandemic","slug":"covid-19-pandemic","tagRel":{"_id":"9aaAMrv5xrmhj434y","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":202,"description":"
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        The United States is underprepared for a future pandemic. A recent simulation conducted by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security found that an engineered pathogen could overwhelm U.S. and global response capacity, killing more than 150 million people within 20 months. One important reason: The U.S. lacks the capacity to manufacture medical countermeasures (MCMs) fast enough to contain a global outbreak.
        
        In this academic s..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"QBcQD59hhPEhdotQL","core":false,"name":"Tabletop exercises","slug":"tabletop-exercises","tagRel":{"_id":"3cxpYFtJtLdbYjaqW","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":16,"description":"
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        TLDR;
        The Long Game Project want to assist more EA organisations in performing tabletop exercises.
        EA work often involves making decisions about important topics but under high uncertainty and complexity. This presents challenges in decision-making that can be improved through practice.
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        Tabletop exercises are informal meetings in which members of an emergency team discuss, usually with the help of a facilitator, their individual roles and appropriate responses during an emergency situation.^[1]..."},{"_id":"of9xBvR3wpbp6qsZC","core":true,"name":"Policy","slug":"policy","tagRel":{"_id":"aBsHZGjjeiRgoaQbB","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":3267,"description":"
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        This post is a transcript of a discussion between Paul Christiano, Ajeya Cotra, and Eliezer Yudkowsky (with some comments from Rob Bensinger, Richard Ngo, and Carl Shulman), continuing from 1, 2, and..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"d7mH3WSTpFBA2wYdJ","slug":"ajeya","karma":2384,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"Ajeya","createdAt":"2016-08-14T20:12:44.994+00:00","postCount":26,"displayName":"Ajeya","commentCount":76,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":null,"profileImageId":null}],"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"QBcQD59hhPEhdotQL","core":false,"name":"Tabletop exercises","slug":"tabletop-exercises","tagRel":{"_id":"er4jefdvGxdsfLzzo","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":16,"description":"
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        In this episode of the Making Sense podcast with Sam Harris, Barton Gellman from The Brennan Center For Justice discusses how he \"organized five nonpartisan tabletop exercises premised on an authoritarian candidate winning the presidency to test the resilience of democratic institutions\".
        
        \"The 175 participants across five exercises were Republicans, Democrats, and independents; liber..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"J7gQeKxPCbALNAuYh","core":false,"name":"Podcasts","slug":"podcasts","tagRel":{"_id":"exQp3zJMukHbju6Ln","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":280,"description":"
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        The Long Game Project is an organisation focused on helping institutions improve decision-making, enhance team collaboration, and build resilience. We aim to do this by
        a) Producing tools and resources to improve access to practical tabletop exercising
        b) Providing advice, thought leadership and full-suite consultation to organisations interested in tabletop exercises
        c) Encouraging a culture of running organisational games an..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"HfJrwPaKgmTKfoxt9","slug":"sanjana-kashyap-1","karma":168,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":"Management Consultant","username":"Sanjana Kashyap","createdAt":"2022-10-11T07:55:58.976+00:00","postCount":0,"displayName":"Sanjana Kashyap","commentCount":0,"organization":"Freelance","biographyHtml":"
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        COO @ Technology Strategy Roleplay (Intelligence Rising)
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