I think that pursuing rare tofus would itself be a good community-building project: you make rare tofus sound totally awesome and I bet you'll get lots of people really excited about them and about you. Then they'll want to check out other stuff that you're involved in, such as the EA movement, and they'll be interested to learn more about it because they already know an awesome and passionate EA (you).
1. I chose AI researchers because then I could use Grace et. al. as directly as possible, and I chose historians because I expected them to differ the most from AI researchers
2. I worked on this for about 30 min, so it's pretty rough. To make it better, I'd:
a. dig into Grace et. al. more (first data, then methods) to learn more about how to interpret the results/what they tell us about the answer to Linch's question
b. read other expert surveys re: when will AGI come (I think AI Impacts has collected these)
I think that pursuing rare tofus would itself be a good community-building project: you make rare tofus sound totally awesome and I bet you'll get lots of people really excited about them and about you. Then they'll want to check out other stuff that you're involved in, such as the EA movement, and they'll be interested to learn more about it because they already know an awesome and passionate EA (you).
My predictions for:
1. AI researchers
2. Historians
Notes:
1. I chose AI researchers because then I could use Grace et. al. as directly as possible, and I chose historians because I expected them to differ the most from AI researchers
2. I worked on this for about 30 min, so it's pretty rough. To make it better, I'd:
a. dig into Grace et. al. more (first data, then methods) to learn more about how to interpret the results/what they tell us about the answer to Linch's question
b. read other expert surveys re: when will AGI come (I think AI Impacts has collected these)
(JTBC, I work at Ought)