The initial calculation we shared in the blog post is a simple one, intended to give a rough sense of the cost-effectiveness of each opportunity given the current limited investigation we’ve done of RTS,S. You're correct that it doesn't account for how RTS,S might interact with LLINs and SMC and the funding needs for those interventions; it's possible that interventions will be layered atop one another, rather than an "either/or" situation.
We expect we would estimate the marginal value if we were deeply investigating an opportunity to fund RTS,S or if it seemed likely that the rollout of RTS,S was going to impact the cost-effectiveness of LLINs or SMC. Going forward, we're also incorporating lower expected malaria rates in some locations in our SMC cost-effectiveness analysis due to the expectation of higher LLIN coverage in the future than the past. We’re doing the same where we’re funding LLINs to be delivered in areas where SMC is expanding.
Thanks for raising these questions! I work at GiveWell, and we're planning to update the EA Global Health and Development Fund page to make the distinction between it and the Maximum Impact Fund clearer—we think we can do better to explain the difference.
Here's a quick summary:
The Maximum Impact Fund is granted regularly to the highest-value funding opportunities we see among GiveWell's recommended charities. This is a great option for donors who want to support GiveWell's top charities and are open to their funding being used wherever it can do the most good among them.
You can read more about the Maximum Impact Fund, and see our past allocations, here.
The Effective Altruism Global Health and Development Fund has a broader remit, including programs that are new and about which little is known, as well as policy advocacy, public health regulation, technical assistance, and direct delivery programs, including GiveWell's recommended charities.
There's no minimum requirement for evidence for grantees' work. The Fund Manager (Elie) takes an expected value approach to calculating the potential impact of grants from the Global Health and Development Fund. He'll recommend higher-risk grants when they are more effective (in expectation) than GiveWell top charities. He'll fund GiveWell top charities if no such higher-expected-value grant opportunity exists.
This is a great option for donors who are open to taking calculated risks when the expected value appears higher than GiveWell's top charities, but are happy to support GiveWell's top charities if not.
We don't expect to change the overall portfolio of opportunities that we pursue in response to the allocation of donations between these two funds. In other words, as with most giving, there is fungibility. For example, if there are insufficient funds in the Global Health and Development Fund to support a high-leverage opportunity we want to fund, we would expect to seek funding for that opportunity from Open Philanthropy, with whom we work closely, or another donor.
Catherine from GiveWell here. Thanks for your post - it's generated some good discussion!
First, I want to confirm a few aspects of our banking that have been discussed here:
A large proportion of the funding that we hold at any point in time is for making grants to our recommended charities. We typically grant those funds within 2-5 months of receiving them. Therefore, our balance fluctuates throughout the year as funds are received and granted.
The vast majority of donations to GiveWell are made in December, which means that both our end-of-year and beginning-of-year balances are significantly higher than the typical balance on any given day of the year. Our January balance is higher because we have not yet granted the December donations, and because some year-end donations are processed in January, such as checks (which tend to be larger donations) that are mailed to us on December 31.
Beyond funding for granting, we also maintain a balance of operating expenses.
We agree that consideration of where to hold and invest funds is important. Last year, we began work to revisit our banking practices. We also adopted an investment policy in December 2020 that enables us to invest a portion of our available cash balances in financial vehicles, with the following goals: preserving capital, meeting our liquidity requirements, minimizing volatility, and maximizing our after-tax return.
We are continuing our project to revisit our banking this year. In addition to the interest rates offered on accounts, our decisions about where to hold funds will also factor in our additional needs, such as strong customer service, security, understanding of non-profit vs. for-profit needs, user interface, connection with our various tools and platforms, and international operability. We plan to take this work forward in 2021.
Catherine from GiveWell here. We appreciate the dialogue this piece has generated. We agree that economic growth is an important area to consider evaluating, due to its potential for significant and positive impacts on well-being.
Today, our top charities list comprises charities implementing programs that have been studied via randomized controlled trials (RCTs). By pointing to these trials (and the monitoring conducted by our charities), we can serve our donors by making a public, vettable case for our recommendations and demonstrating their likely impact. We believe these are excellent, cost-effective opportunities for donors to help people alive today.
As John and Hauke note, GiveWell is not just focused on RCTs. We've expanded GiveWell's focus to include new areas that may be more challenging to measure than the programs our current top charities implement,and we will therefore consider potential top charities that don't have RCTs of their work. Our goal in expanding our focus is to identify programs that are more cost-effective than our current top charities (which we believe are highly cost-effective and difficult to beat). We wrote a blog post in February 2019 outlining our early plans for this work: https://blog.givewell.org/2019/02/07/how-givewells-research-is-evolving/.
We plan to expand our focus gradually, starting with areas in which we think we can make significant progress. We're looking into health policy interventions—like alcohol control, ambient air pollution, micronutrient fortification in India, pesticide regulation, and lead paint regulation—based on our understanding of the existing research within these areas and our experience evaluating health interventions. From an institutional and research perspective, we think this is the right starting point for our expansion.
That doesn't mean we'll stop there. In that February 2019 blog post, one of the areas we listed as under consideration for future research was "Increasing economic growth and redistribution." We hope to be able to deepen our understanding of this topic soon, although we don't expect to do so in the very near future, so unfortunately don't have substantive additions to the above discussion at this time.
Preliminarily, we guess that it might be particularly difficult to analyze giving opportunities in "economic growth" broadly because we perceive that growth is the result of a complex interplay between many different areas one could make grants in. These areas include infrastructure development, fiscal policy, monetary policy, industrial policy, peace and stability, individually-targeted programs, health, and so on. We haven't yet done substantial work to map this space, but we expect that considering the more granular cause areas within the broad economic growth space will help us make progress on prioritizing further research.
We look forward to following the research that is done in this space and we are excited that other researchers are focusing on international development, as we think this will improve our research and recommendations in the long term.
"I’m also curious about when the GiveWell/CEA teams realized that the old EA Funds webpage’s description of the Fund’s scope might reasonably be read to exclude the One for the World grant." We realized this when prompted by your comments here.
"With that in mind, would GiveWell support One for the World in taking steps to clarify the nature of its relationships with GiveWell on its website?" We have shared this feedback with One for the World and understand they plan to update their site accordingly.
Thank you for sharing these concerns. We're sorry that this grant came as a surprise, and that you would prefer that it wasn't made via this EA Fund.
Some context on the fund may be helpful in explaining the decision to make this grant. The Centre for Effective Altruism set the original scope of the fund and asked Elie to serve as the manager to recommend grants to the fund. Elie thought that a grant to One for the World may be better in expectation than GiveWell's top charities (the broad mandate for the fund) and staff at the Centre for Effective Altruism communicated to Elie that One for the World was within the scope of the fund. Elie elected to make the grant on that understanding.
However, we at GiveWell didn't confirm the language on the now-previous version of the fund page, which we believe said: "You might choose not to support the fund if you think donations to organizations working in Effective Altruism Movement Building will produce more money for highly effective global poverty charities than the money they receive." If we had done that, we would have had more questions about whether the grant was in the scope of the fund; failure to do so was an oversight by us and CEA.
Elie appreciates hearing from EA Fund donors about their preferences for allocating funding and would appreciate other donors communicating with him about their interests.
Thanks, HStencil - I've passed your feedback on timing of information sharing to the team for consideration.
We hope to publish the One for the World grant write-up soon, but are not sure of the precise timing.
I'm glad to share some quick context for why this grant was made through the Global Health and Development Fund. The scope of the fund, as indicated in the "Fund scope" section here (https://app.effectivealtruism.org/funds/global-development), is to support activities whose ultimate purpose is to serve people living in the poorest regions of the world, including by raising additional funds for charities operating in those regions. The One for the World (OFTW) grant fits into this category. (We recently updated that page to make the fund scope clearer).
One additional process piece that may be helpful to have in mind: each EA Fund manager has discretion over their own pool of funds, and sources and considers grants independently. It's possible there are grants, like OFTW, that fit into the scope of more than one fund. Part of the discussion around grantmaking is understanding other funding the group expects to receive, so we don't believe there's an issue if a group is supported by multiple EA Funds.
Hi HStencil, Catherine from GiveWell here—you're right that the grant was made from the EA Fund for Global Health and Development. Our page publishing process can take a long time, so we haven't yet published our write-up on the grant on GiveWell.org, but we're planning to in the future. We expect that information to be shared on the EA Fund page once it is published.
I work at GiveWell; thanks for your question. There are a few key differences with the Open Philanthropy Project:
Approach. While this work is still new and we're unsure exactly how we'll approach it, we continue to see our core activity as intensive critical assessment of specific giving opportunities to maximize the return of the funds we direct. By contrast, the core activity of the Open Philanthropy Project is intensive cause selection followed by intensive selection of Program Officers to lead grantmaking in those causes, and heavy reliance on the judgment of those Program Officers to identify hits.
In the post above, we aim to highlight how our approach to conducting intensive critical assessment of giving opportunities (our research process) has changed. GiveWell traditionally relied on empirical, quantitative evidence (often randomized controlled trials and academic papers) as the primary input into this assessment. In the last few years, we began to expand the scope of the information we rely in our assessments. Our recent write-ups of the case for a grant to the Innovation in Government Initiative and our evaluation of Phase 1 of our grant to Results for Development are examples of how we have assessed new types of information in recent years.
Transparency. Transparency remains a core GiveWell value. We continue to be committed to publishing the full details of our research and recommendations as we evolve our research process so that our donors and others who rely on our recommendations can follow our logic and evaluate our evidence to make their own determinations about how to allocate their charitable giving. The Open Philanthropy Project’s mission is to give as effectively as it can and share its findings openly so that anyone can build on its work, but it does not aim for comprehensive information sharing such that the reasoning behind every decision can be understood and critiqued. The Open Philanthropy Project describes its approach to transparency here.
Focus area. GiveWell is focused on improving as much as possible the lives of humans today, and we focus on global health and development to do so. Even as our approach to research changes, we do not currently expect to look to areas focused explicitly on the long-term future or animal welfare, which are among the areas in which the Open Philanthropy Project makes grants. (The Open Philanthropy Project also supports global health and development, such as by supporting GiveWell's top charities and GiveWell Incubation Grants.)
Thanks for your question! I work at GiveWell.
The initial calculation we shared in the blog post is a simple one, intended to give a rough sense of the cost-effectiveness of each opportunity given the current limited investigation we’ve done of RTS,S. You're correct that it doesn't account for how RTS,S might interact with LLINs and SMC and the funding needs for those interventions; it's possible that interventions will be layered atop one another, rather than an "either/or" situation.
We expect we would estimate the marginal value if we were deeply investigating an opportunity to fund RTS,S or if it seemed likely that the rollout of RTS,S was going to impact the cost-effectiveness of LLINs or SMC. Going forward, we're also incorporating lower expected malaria rates in some locations in our SMC cost-effectiveness analysis due to the expectation of higher LLIN coverage in the future than the past. We’re doing the same where we’re funding LLINs to be delivered in areas where SMC is expanding.
Thanks for raising these questions! I work at GiveWell, and we're planning to update the EA Global Health and Development Fund page to make the distinction between it and the Maximum Impact Fund clearer—we think we can do better to explain the difference.
Here's a quick summary:
You can read more about the Maximum Impact Fund, and see our past allocations, here.
There's no minimum requirement for evidence for grantees' work. The Fund Manager (Elie) takes an expected value approach to calculating the potential impact of grants from the Global Health and Development Fund. He'll recommend higher-risk grants when they are more effective (in expectation) than GiveWell top charities. He'll fund GiveWell top charities if no such higher-expected-value grant opportunity exists.
The list of past grants shows the breadth of programs that have received Global Health and Development Fund support. Here's a grant for an RCT on the effects of mask-wearing on COVID-19, a grant for a policy advocacy organization, and a grant to GiveWell top charities.
This is a great option for donors who are open to taking calculated risks when the expected value appears higher than GiveWell's top charities, but are happy to support GiveWell's top charities if not.
We don't expect to change the overall portfolio of opportunities that we pursue in response to the allocation of donations between these two funds. In other words, as with most giving, there is fungibility. For example, if there are insufficient funds in the Global Health and Development Fund to support a high-leverage opportunity we want to fund, we would expect to seek funding for that opportunity from Open Philanthropy, with whom we work closely, or another donor.
I hope that helps clarify!
Hi Brendon and Tharun,
Catherine from GiveWell here. Thanks for your post - it's generated some good discussion!
First, I want to confirm a few aspects of our banking that have been discussed here:
We agree that consideration of where to hold and invest funds is important. Last year, we began work to revisit our banking practices. We also adopted an investment policy in December 2020 that enables us to invest a portion of our available cash balances in financial vehicles, with the following goals: preserving capital, meeting our liquidity requirements, minimizing volatility, and maximizing our after-tax return.
We are continuing our project to revisit our banking this year. In addition to the interest rates offered on accounts, our decisions about where to hold funds will also factor in our additional needs, such as strong customer service, security, understanding of non-profit vs. for-profit needs, user interface, connection with our various tools and platforms, and international operability. We plan to take this work forward in 2021.
Hi Peter,
Catherine from GiveWell here. We appreciate the dialogue this piece has generated. We agree that economic growth is an important area to consider evaluating, due to its potential for significant and positive impacts on well-being.
Today, our top charities list comprises charities implementing programs that have been studied via randomized controlled trials (RCTs). By pointing to these trials (and the monitoring conducted by our charities), we can serve our donors by making a public, vettable case for our recommendations and demonstrating their likely impact. We believe these are excellent, cost-effective opportunities for donors to help people alive today.
As John and Hauke note, GiveWell is not just focused on RCTs. We've expanded GiveWell's focus to include new areas that may be more challenging to measure than the programs our current top charities implement,and we will therefore consider potential top charities that don't have RCTs of their work. Our goal in expanding our focus is to identify programs that are more cost-effective than our current top charities (which we believe are highly cost-effective and difficult to beat). We wrote a blog post in February 2019 outlining our early plans for this work: https://blog.givewell.org/2019/02/07/how-givewells-research-is-evolving/.
We plan to expand our focus gradually, starting with areas in which we think we can make significant progress. We're looking into health policy interventions—like alcohol control, ambient air pollution, micronutrient fortification in India, pesticide regulation, and lead paint regulation—based on our understanding of the existing research within these areas and our experience evaluating health interventions. From an institutional and research perspective, we think this is the right starting point for our expansion.
That doesn't mean we'll stop there. In that February 2019 blog post, one of the areas we listed as under consideration for future research was "Increasing economic growth and redistribution." We hope to be able to deepen our understanding of this topic soon, although we don't expect to do so in the very near future, so unfortunately don't have substantive additions to the above discussion at this time.
Preliminarily, we guess that it might be particularly difficult to analyze giving opportunities in "economic growth" broadly because we perceive that growth is the result of a complex interplay between many different areas one could make grants in. These areas include infrastructure development, fiscal policy, monetary policy, industrial policy, peace and stability, individually-targeted programs, health, and so on. We haven't yet done substantial work to map this space, but we expect that considering the more granular cause areas within the broad economic growth space will help us make progress on prioritizing further research.
We look forward to following the research that is done in this space and we are excited that other researchers are focusing on international development, as we think this will improve our research and recommendations in the long term.
Hi HStencil,
"I’m also curious about when the GiveWell/CEA teams realized that the old EA Funds webpage’s description of the Fund’s scope might reasonably be read to exclude the One for the World grant." We realized this when prompted by your comments here.
"With that in mind, would GiveWell support One for the World in taking steps to clarify the nature of its relationships with GiveWell on its website?" We have shared this feedback with One for the World and understand they plan to update their site accordingly.
Hi HStencil,
Thank you for sharing these concerns. We're sorry that this grant came as a surprise, and that you would prefer that it wasn't made via this EA Fund.
Some context on the fund may be helpful in explaining the decision to make this grant. The Centre for Effective Altruism set the original scope of the fund and asked Elie to serve as the manager to recommend grants to the fund. Elie thought that a grant to One for the World may be better in expectation than GiveWell's top charities (the broad mandate for the fund) and staff at the Centre for Effective Altruism communicated to Elie that One for the World was within the scope of the fund. Elie elected to make the grant on that understanding.
However, we at GiveWell didn't confirm the language on the now-previous version of the fund page, which we believe said: "You might choose not to support the fund if you think donations to organizations working in Effective Altruism Movement Building will produce more money for highly effective global poverty charities than the money they receive." If we had done that, we would have had more questions about whether the grant was in the scope of the fund; failure to do so was an oversight by us and CEA.
Elie appreciates hearing from EA Fund donors about their preferences for allocating funding and would appreciate other donors communicating with him about their interests.
Hi HStencil, we just published the grant write-up. It is available here: https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/october-2019-grant
Thanks, HStencil - I've passed your feedback on timing of information sharing to the team for consideration.
We hope to publish the One for the World grant write-up soon, but are not sure of the precise timing.
I'm glad to share some quick context for why this grant was made through the Global Health and Development Fund. The scope of the fund, as indicated in the "Fund scope" section here (https://app.effectivealtruism.org/funds/global-development), is to support activities whose ultimate purpose is to serve people living in the poorest regions of the world, including by raising additional funds for charities operating in those regions. The One for the World (OFTW) grant fits into this category. (We recently updated that page to make the fund scope clearer).
One additional process piece that may be helpful to have in mind: each EA Fund manager has discretion over their own pool of funds, and sources and considers grants independently. It's possible there are grants, like OFTW, that fit into the scope of more than one fund. Part of the discussion around grantmaking is understanding other funding the group expects to receive, so we don't believe there's an issue if a group is supported by multiple EA Funds.
Hi HStencil, Catherine from GiveWell here—you're right that the grant was made from the EA Fund for Global Health and Development. Our page publishing process can take a long time, so we haven't yet published our write-up on the grant on GiveWell.org, but we're planning to in the future. We expect that information to be shared on the EA Fund page once it is published.
Hi Raemon,
I work at GiveWell; thanks for your question. There are a few key differences with the Open Philanthropy Project:
In the post above, we aim to highlight how our approach to conducting intensive critical assessment of giving opportunities (our research process) has changed. GiveWell traditionally relied on empirical, quantitative evidence (often randomized controlled trials and academic papers) as the primary input into this assessment. In the last few years, we began to expand the scope of the information we rely in our assessments. Our recent write-ups of the case for a grant to the Innovation in Government Initiative and our evaluation of Phase 1 of our grant to Results for Development are examples of how we have assessed new types of information in recent years.