I think it would be nicer if you say your P(Doom|AGI in 2070) instead of P(Doom|AGI by 2070), because the second one implicitly takes into account your timelines. Also, it would be nicer to have the same years: P(Doom | AGI in 2043) and P(Doom | AGI in 2100)
Aligning powerful AI is hard
I think it would be nicer if you say your P(Doom|AGI in 2070) instead of P(Doom|AGI by 2070), because the second one implicitly takes into account your timelines. Also, it would be nicer to have the same years: P(Doom | AGI in 2043) and P(Doom | AGI in 2100)