But of course, I cannot justify high confidence in these views given that many experts disagree. Following the analysis of this post, this is
Dangling sentence.
In my personal belief, the "hard AI takeoff" scenarios are driven mostly by the belief that current AI progress largely flows from a single skill, that is, "mathematics/programming". So while AI will continue to develop at disparate rates and achieve superhuman performance in different areas at different rates, an ASI takeoff will be driven almost entirely by AI performance in software development, and once AI becomes superhuman in this skill it will rapidly become superhuman in all skills. This seems obvious to me, and I think disagreements with it have to rest largely with hidden difficulties in "software development", such as understanding and modeling many different systems well enough to develop algorithms specialized for them (which seems like it's almost circularly "AGI complete").
Do you intend to submit Logical Induction to a relevant magazine for peer review and publication? Do you still hold with ~Eliezer2008 that people who currently object that MIRI doesn't participate in the orthodox scientific progress would still object for other reasons, even if you tried to address the lack of peer review?
Also why no /r/IAmA or /r/science AMA? The audience on this site seems limited from the start. Are you trying to target people who are already EAs in specific?
Dangling sentence.
In my personal belief, the "hard AI takeoff" scenarios are driven mostly by the belief that current AI progress largely flows from a single skill, that is, "mathematics/programming". So while AI will continue to develop at disparate rates and achieve superhuman performance in different areas at different rates, an ASI takeoff will be driven almost entirely by AI performance in software development, and once AI becomes superhuman in this skill it will rapidly become superhuman in all skills. This seems obvious to me, and I think disagreements with it have to rest largely with hidden difficulties in "software development", such as understanding and modeling many different systems well enough to develop algorithms specialized for them (which seems like it's almost circularly "AGI complete").
Do you intend to submit Logical Induction to a relevant magazine for peer review and publication? Do you still hold with ~Eliezer2008 that people who currently object that MIRI doesn't participate in the orthodox scientific progress would still object for other reasons, even if you tried to address the lack of peer review?
Also why no /r/IAmA or /r/science AMA? The audience on this site seems limited from the start. Are you trying to target people who are already EAs in specific?