Thanks for the amazing post. I’m adding it to EA Turkey’s syllabus of career mentorship program for inspiration 🙌

Are these disagreements representative of the general disagreements between people with long and short AI timelines?

Hi,

When do you plan to publish your response?

I think you didn't misunderstand me. 

If you are not assuming the longterm effects, the intervals below are only for shorttermish effects. (this is what I got from your comment, correct please if It's wrong)

H=[100,200]×[−300,50]×[−50,50]

Isn't one of the main problems brought by deep moral uncertinity is about how an intervention itself is benefical for the target group or not? 

An intervention effects far future. Far future effect is generally more important than short term effects.  So even if our short therm analysis shows the intervention was beneficial it doesn't mean in aggregate it is net positive. Thus we don't know the impact of the intervention. 

I believe this was the one of the main problems of moral uncertinity/cluenessness. What I don't get is how the model can solve moral uncertinity if it does not takes far longterm effects into account. 

I guess I didn't specify how far these sets of targets go into the future, so you could assume I'm ignoring far future moral patients, or we can extend the example to include them, with interventions positive in expectation for some sets of far future targets.

Is the bolded part even possible? Is there interventions that are highly likely to be positive for the target group in the very far future? 

P.S: Thank you for responding my comment this fast even if the post is 5 years old :) 

In the caculation  below it is assumed that, we know at least one intervention for each cause area that has no negatives so that we use our funds to compensate this net positive with negatives from other interventions. 

However isn't it hard to assume this? I personally can't think of an intervention that is definitely positive in the long term. It feels like instead of numbers there should be question marks due to complexity of everything.  Am I missing something? 

Great post. Would love to see more stories like this 

This is extremely relatable. Thank you for sharing it.  

Thank you for the inspiring post.

I’d like to introduce projects, buffer time and graduation to my group as well. Is it possible for you to tell me some examples of the projects? I didin’t get it from the post. I’d love to see it in more detail. Here’s my mail gturker21@ku.edu.tr

Also for not losing some people due to high commitment projects could be optional. Participants choose if they want to be in a project based or reading based group.

Small note: In my cohorts conversation nuance wise small size 4-6 was much better than bigger size 6-8. When the group is small its easier to feel comrftable and the discussion was much deeper.

Are there any updates on your group? How did you select your BMs and how did it go eventually?