I will take these numbers at face value, but never underestimate the power of learning curves! Bio-reactors, like most other tech, are getting cheaper and more efficient. I will definitely agree that take-off will be slow: I would be surprised if even 1% of meat consumption is from cultivated meat by 2030. But I think once we do hit 1% we will get to 99% quickly (where I am not confident enough to put a number on "quickly").
1) How certain can we be that the average insect life is net negative? How much joy / happiness do they feel?
1b) I have a vague uncertain intuition that evolution (outer optimizer) in the long run should make the baseline happiness near zero for the inner optimizer (??)
2) What is the impact of reducing insect populations on other species?
3) I am very uncertain about what the relative intensities of pain mean.
I do want to note that this article convinced me that insect suffering is more important than I previously thought, and I will plan to give to some insect related charity.
I will take these numbers at face value, but never underestimate the power of learning curves! Bio-reactors, like most other tech, are getting cheaper and more efficient. I will definitely agree that take-off will be slow: I would be surprised if even 1% of meat consumption is from cultivated meat by 2030. But I think once we do hit 1% we will get to 99% quickly (where I am not confident enough to put a number on "quickly").
I think my three sources of uncertainty are:
1) How certain can we be that the average insect life is net negative? How much joy / happiness do they feel?
1b) I have a vague uncertain intuition that evolution (outer optimizer) in the long run should make the baseline happiness near zero for the inner optimizer (??)
2) What is the impact of reducing insect populations on other species?
3) I am very uncertain about what the relative intensities of pain mean.
I do want to note that this article convinced me that insect suffering is more important than I previously thought, and I will plan to give to some insect related charity.