Far-future effects are the most important determinant of what we ought to do
From a totalist population ethics viewpoint, ensuring that there are humans in the future is critical because there can be so many more of them than there are humans currently alive. which can't happen if extinction occurs, or lock in on bad states like AI authoritarianism.
Thanks for the post, we may be using this for a discussion group I'm running! Have you accidentally duplicated this section? "Update: Some people argued that it doesn't make sense to hedge your bets for donations and I disagree. Especially donations towards long-termist causes have huge uncertainty attached to them and thus the expected value of one option is included within one standard deviation from another option. Thus I would say it does make sense to diversify, especially if one option includes high-impact, low-probability scenarios." It appears in the Insurances section but I don't see its relevance.
I was also a little confused what a Daylight lamp was; does its spectra reflect what is outside at the time? e.g. warm red light at night, cool light in the day?
From a totalist population ethics viewpoint, ensuring that there are humans in the future is critical because there can be so many more of them than there are humans currently alive. which can't happen if extinction occurs, or lock in on bad states like AI authoritarianism.
Hi Max, thanks for doing this. Just a little nitpick:
You say [italics added]:
"Lowest rated books
Here the same with the highest rated books"
It should be "lowest", right?
cheers
Thanks for the post, we may be using this for a discussion group I'm running!
Have you accidentally duplicated this section?
"Update: Some people argued that it doesn't make sense to hedge your bets for donations and I disagree. Especially donations towards long-termist causes have huge uncertainty attached to them and thus the expected value of one option is included within one standard deviation from another option. Thus I would say it does make sense to diversify, especially if one option includes high-impact, low-probability scenarios." It appears in the Insurances section but I don't see its relevance.
I was also a little confused what a Daylight lamp was; does its spectra reflect what is outside at the time? e.g. warm red light at night, cool light in the day?