I think the renting vs. buying discussion (among many other things) also comes down to the degree of tenant protection in your country. In the UK, being a renter is notoriously miserable. In countries with more robust tenants' rights like Germany/France, it is a lot easier to build a stable life as a renter.
I'm happy you found it insightful, despite the discouraging content.
I have no direct knowledge of the field, but if the analysis holds true, I assume takeoff within the next 15 years seems very unlikely.
That being said, maybe we can be more optimistic about progress in plant-based meat alternatives in that timeframe. I recently learned about Rebellyous Foods and found their (reported) progress on making fake chicken more cost and taste-competitive encouraging!
Although I assume that will also only take us so far (see the recent post by Jacob Peacock on this forum). In the end, we might just be stuck hoping that humans' values vis-à-vis animals improve. Along with trying to guide them in that direction, regardless of how ineffective or at least hard to quantify moral advocacy might be.
While I agree with Fergus that the video shared above is not very informative, I do think we should reflect more on the feasibility of cultured meat within the community. A report commissioned by Open Philanthropy from a top scientist found that cultured meat might never work at scale. I would encourage you to read this article on it here:
My fear is that cultured meat might be (another) area in which the community has fallen into groupthink, causing us to direct a lot of resources in a misguided way (i.e. the Good Food Institute's cultured meat efforts).
Very low confidence, but maybe it would make more sense to double down on plant-based meat, making products less competitive, and boring old moral advocacy? I'd be very keen to hear what others think.
Thank you for writing this posit. I think the degrowth perspective is quite needed in the EA community, which I often feel tends to be too optimistic about the prospects of technological progress improving wellbeing in the medium-run and the negative impacts of climate change on wellbeing and overall societal stability in the medium-run. Facing these challenges, targeted degrowth of certain sectors in developed economies seems like the best response. Especially since a Haber Bosch-style breakthrough doesn't seem likely, or hoping that one does happen seems unreasonable given the stakes.
However, I agree that degrowth doesn't is probably not very tractable. A massive shift in developed countries' political power structures would be required to implement the reductions in profit and redistribution of economic resources that degrowth implies.
I think the renting vs. buying discussion (among many other things) also comes down to the degree of tenant protection in your country. In the UK, being a renter is notoriously miserable. In countries with more robust tenants' rights like Germany/France, it is a lot easier to build a stable life as a renter.
I'm happy you found it insightful, despite the discouraging content.
I have no direct knowledge of the field, but if the analysis holds true, I assume takeoff within the next 15 years seems very unlikely.
That being said, maybe we can be more optimistic about progress in plant-based meat alternatives in that timeframe. I recently learned about Rebellyous Foods and found their (reported) progress on making fake chicken more cost and taste-competitive encouraging!
Although I assume that will also only take us so far (see the recent post by Jacob Peacock on this forum). In the end, we might just be stuck hoping that humans' values vis-à-vis animals improve. Along with trying to guide them in that direction, regardless of how ineffective or at least hard to quantify moral advocacy might be.
While I agree with Fergus that the video shared above is not very informative, I do think we should reflect more on the feasibility of cultured meat within the community. A report commissioned by Open Philanthropy from a top scientist found that cultured meat might never work at scale.
I would encourage you to read this article on it here:
Lab-grown meat is supposed to be inevitable. The science tells a different story.
Recent reporting by WIRED on Upside Foods is also concerning.
Insiders Reveal Major Problems at Lab-Grown-Meat Startup Upside Foods | WIRED
My fear is that cultured meat might be (another) area in which the community has fallen into groupthink, causing us to direct a lot of resources in a misguided way (i.e. the Good Food Institute's cultured meat efforts).
Very low confidence, but maybe it would make more sense to double down on plant-based meat, making products less competitive, and boring old moral advocacy?
I'd be very keen to hear what others think.
Thank you for writing this posit. I think the degrowth perspective is quite needed in the EA community, which I often feel tends to be too optimistic about the prospects of technological progress improving wellbeing in the medium-run and the negative impacts of climate change on wellbeing and overall societal stability in the medium-run. Facing these challenges, targeted degrowth of certain sectors in developed economies seems like the best response. Especially since a Haber Bosch-style breakthrough doesn't seem likely, or hoping that one does happen seems unreasonable given the stakes.
However, I agree that degrowth doesn't is probably not very tractable. A massive shift in developed countries' political power structures would be required to implement the reductions in profit and redistribution of economic resources that degrowth implies.