Also, Kemp & Cremer in their X-risk paper argue for existential risk to be measured through systemic risk analysis instead of what they call "hazard-centric" risk analysis, as isolating risks (eg CBRN, ASI) may lead to ignoring common contributing factors to the risks. That lens lends itself well to "institutional buffer" - type interventions for minimizing cascade risks.
What do we think of PlayPumps?
Interesting link of ideas! A few thoughts:
- Nassim Taleb's conceptualisation of antifragility seems related to the institutional buffer.
- Arguing that under the assumption of strong epistemic cluelessness, consequentialist agents depend on Pascal’s wager type scenarios to choose longtermist policies: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11229-023-04153-y These wagers might take the form of: https://philarchive.org/rec/BALPMS
https://longtermrisk.org/files/Bracketing_Cluelessness.pdf offers an argument for salvaging cluelessness through isolating certain mechanisms of foresight.
Also, Kemp & Cremer in their X-risk paper argue for existential risk to be measured through systemic risk analysis instead of what they call "hazard-centric" risk analysis, as isolating risks (eg CBRN, ASI) may lead to ignoring common contributing factors to the risks. That lens lends itself well to "institutional buffer" - type interventions for minimizing cascade risks.