Cullen's Quick takesView in threadPat Myron 🔸3mo1101federal preemption causes sports betting to expand into states that would otherwise prohibit itIt also expanded access to teenagers while most states that allowed it had restricted it to 21+Reply
Suggestion: Effective Animal Advocacy forumView in threadPat Myron 🔸5mo120The FAST Forum has been discontinued:https://fastcommunity.org/discontinuedReply
Introducing the Animal Advocacy Forum — a space for those involved or interested in Animal Welfare & related topicsView in threadPat Myron 🔸5mo310The FAST Forum has been discontinued:https://fastcommunity.org/discontinuedReply
Pat Myron's Quick takesView in threadPat Myron 🔸9mo*1110PolicyEffective givingPolicyEffective giving1 moreAs one of the largest single donations ever, Michael and Susan Dell pledged $6.25B to provide 25M American children new investment accounts:https://apnews.com/article/michael-dell-susan-trump-accounts-stock-market-poverty-inequality-7e2615d50a3fc0563109ed0eeb4c41e1Reply
Prediction markets & many experts think authoritarian capture of the US looks distinctly possibleView in threadPat Myron 🔸11mo110easier to start and resolve markets, leading to many more marketsleads to lower signal-to-noise ratioand heeding time-value still leads to more (play) capital / pricing powerReply
Prediction markets & many experts think authoritarian capture of the US looks distinctly possibleView in threadPat Myron 🔸11mo*210long term market issues [...] conditional marketsConditional markets compound long term issues (assuming they're collateralized): instead of locking capital into a market, that's locking capital into hoping there's a marketPrediction markets can increase capital efficiency by:* pegging interest rates (like adjustable-rate mortgages)* recognizing hedged positions[1][2]* lowering feesReply
Prediction markets & many experts think authoritarian capture of the US looks distinctly possibleView in threadPat Myron 🔸11mo*8301More reasons for cautious interpretations:Manifold:* 'mana is purely a play-money and not exchangeable for sweepcash, money, or any other goods and items'Polymarket:* orderbook's actually 2.5% which the interface rounds up to 3%* Polymarket offers 4% variable interest on that (Kalshi went from 4.05% to 3.25% this year)Metaculus:* 500 deaths is closer to previous US standoffs than the US Civil War* Only question of those >3% as of writing only has 33 forecasters* All the histograms have odd tails (somewhat dampened by Metaculus reporting medians):Reply
We don't have evidence that the best charities are over 1000x more cost effective than the averageView in threadPat Myron 🔸1y*310Most nonprofit revenue isn't from charitable giving (think healthcare, education, etc):https://taxfoundation.org/blog/501c3-nonprofit-revenue/https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/searchMost American charitable giving was across hundreds of thousands of religious organizations:https://www.philanthropyroundtable.org/magazine/less-god-less-giving/But these organizations receive the most donations:https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BpEt8DqrcAhKJbtfJ/america-s-100-charities-receiving-most-donationsReply
Break-even analysis of D3, long-chain omega-3, and multivitamin-multimineral supplementationView in threadPat Myron 🔸1y210I do not discuss B12I also plan to continue my D3 supplementationDo you think there is evidence that not taking a multivitamin-multimineralThat multivitamin-multimineral contains B12 and D3 btwReply
Break-even analysis of D3, long-chain omega-3, and multivitamin-multimineral supplementationView in threadPat Myron 🔸1y*110Still seems reductively worded? Serious deficiencies like B12 impair sustaining any income. I wouldn't risk cognitive health over ~$10/monthReply
9Giving What We Can 10% pledges by yearPat Myron 🔸·2y ago·1m readPat Myron 🔸·2y ago·1m read33
28Manifold Markets Charity program ending March 1stPat Myron 🔸·3y ago·1m readPat Myron 🔸·3y ago·1m read33
28America’s 100 Charities receiving most donationsPat Myron 🔸·3y ago·1m readPat Myron 🔸·3y ago·1m read22
3Any state / local politicians in this community? (state legislators / city council members / etc)Pat Myron 🔸·3y ago·1m readPat Myron 🔸·3y ago·1m read22
56Cardinals baseball tickets currently a cost-effective way to fundraise?Pat Myron 🔸·3y ago·2m readPat Myron 🔸·3y ago·2m read33
It also expanded access to teenagers while most states that allowed it had restricted it to 21+
The FAST Forum has been discontinued:
https://fastcommunity.org/discontinued
The FAST Forum has been discontinued:
https://fastcommunity.org/discontinued
As one of the largest single donations ever, Michael and Susan Dell pledged $6.25B to provide 25M American children new investment accounts:
https://apnews.com/article/michael-dell-susan-trump-accounts-stock-market-poverty-inequality-7e2615d50a3fc0563109ed0eeb4c41e1
leads to lower signal-to-noise ratio
and heeding time-value still leads to more (play) capital / pricing power
Conditional markets compound long term issues (assuming they're collateralized): instead of locking capital into a market, that's locking capital into hoping there's a market
Prediction markets can increase capital efficiency by:
* pegging interest rates (like adjustable-rate mortgages)
* recognizing hedged positions[1][2]
* lowering fees
More reasons for cautious interpretations:
Manifold:
* 'mana is purely a play-money and not exchangeable for sweepcash, money, or any other goods and items'
Polymarket:
* orderbook's actually 2.5% which the interface rounds up to 3%
* Polymarket offers 4% variable interest on that (Kalshi went from 4.05% to 3.25% this year)
Metaculus:
* 500 deaths is closer to previous US standoffs than the US Civil War
* Only question of those >3% as of writing only has 33 forecasters
* All the histograms have odd tails (somewhat dampened by Metaculus reporting medians):
Most nonprofit revenue isn't from charitable giving (think healthcare, education, etc):
https://taxfoundation.org/blog/501c3-nonprofit-revenue/
https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/search
Most American charitable giving was across hundreds of thousands of religious organizations:
https://www.philanthropyroundtable.org/magazine/less-god-less-giving/
But these organizations receive the most donations:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BpEt8DqrcAhKJbtfJ/america-s-100-charities-receiving-most-donations
That multivitamin-multimineral contains B12 and D3 btw
Still seems reductively worded? Serious deficiencies like B12 impair sustaining any income. I wouldn't risk cognitive health over ~$10/month