If your argument about prolonging the war is correct, and I do agree with your logic around autocratic leaders being emboldened to take more land (such as China with Taiwan), I'd still argue that it's funded enough already with enough attention to not require EA funds. If that new FTX Future Fund invested all $1B into Ukraine it will be a minority percentage of all total funds and the things that are under-funded but offer greater rewards will not be funded (because they don't have the same level of public/international support).
I feel I have to start this comment with the caveat that I stand with Ukraine.
I don't think this is a project for effective altruism for two main reasons. First, this is a highly funded area with people donating already. The World Bank has pledged billions with $350 million being sent this week. Nations are sending supplies. Musk has provided internet access. Regular people are donating money to people. What benefit is there to add additional funds in the order of perhaps millions? This could be spent in a much more productive manner. Secondly, with a rational hat on, I don't know if extending this war is good long term. Putin has mentioned nuclear weapons, however slim the reality of that threat may be, so the thing we should be focusing on is de-escalation not escalation through funding. I'd need to be seriously persuaded that the benefit of supporting Ukraine to prolong this war is greater than the risk of Russia moving closer to nuclear war with the West.
If your argument about prolonging the war is correct, and I do agree with your logic around autocratic leaders being emboldened to take more land (such as China with Taiwan), I'd still argue that it's funded enough already with enough attention to not require EA funds. If that new FTX Future Fund invested all $1B into Ukraine it will be a minority percentage of all total funds and the things that are under-funded but offer greater rewards will not be funded (because they don't have the same level of public/international support).
I feel I have to start this comment with the caveat that I stand with Ukraine.
I don't think this is a project for effective altruism for two main reasons. First, this is a highly funded area with people donating already. The World Bank has pledged billions with $350 million being sent this week. Nations are sending supplies. Musk has provided internet access. Regular people are donating money to people. What benefit is there to add additional funds in the order of perhaps millions? This could be spent in a much more productive manner. Secondly, with a rational hat on, I don't know if extending this war is good long term. Putin has mentioned nuclear weapons, however slim the reality of that threat may be, so the thing we should be focusing on is de-escalation not escalation through funding. I'd need to be seriously persuaded that the benefit of supporting Ukraine to prolong this war is greater than the risk of Russia moving closer to nuclear war with the West.