Thanks, that's very useful. I've been looking into this some more, and I have some more questions:
About the comparison with sugarcane: from the section of your page (https://www.ugandafarm.org/size-of-long-island/) and the links, I see that sugar cane prices did fall to Ugx 1,000-3,000 per ton at one point in 2021, but the usual range seems to be more like Ugx 60,000-200,000 per ton. With yield of around 40 tons/acre, even using the lowest price Ugx 60,000/ton would give an annual revenue of Ugx 2.4m/acre. For your estimates for sorghum of Ugx 1,300/kg and 700kg/acre with 2 harvests/year, that would only be Ugx 1.82m/acre.
I appreciate that avoiding the risks of a sugarcane monoculture is valuable separate from increasing the average income. But I'm still surprised that the average annual income with sorghum could be lower than with sugarcane. Is there some thing I'm missing about the price of sugarcane or the costs of growing it?
About the benefits of the facility versus the current setup of growing sorghum without a plant: do you have an estimate for how much sorghum Uganda Breweries and other companies would be willing to buy in the current setup? That is, how many farmers/acres could you support without the plant?
A separate question: could you give me an idea of what proportion of farmers in Busoga grow sugarcane versus being subsistence farmers?
Thanks Anthony, this is a very interesting post (and I appreciate your answer to my question on your previous post). I have a couple more questions if you have time to answer them:
Roughly what are the running costs of the plant, for instance electricity? Also, are there any other significant costs either you or the farmers would have to pay? For example, fuel to transport the grain from farms to the plant (I'm not sure how far away the farms are, or how much fuel costs in Uganda).
How long does the harvesting season last, and how many hours a day could the plant operate? I'm wondering what yearly capacity the 15 ton/hour capacity corresponds to.
As Anthony mentions, I'm keen to fund a cost-effectiveness analysis of this project. Please email me at macsweenroddy AT gmail.com if you're interested or can point me to anyone who might be.
Dear Anthony, I really hope UCF is successful. I think it deserves significantly more attention from effective altruists than it has received so far. I just donated on your donorbox link. One thing I'm curious about: what's your reason for choosing Alvan Blanch for the grain-processing system? I don't know anything about agro plants, but I would have guessed a UK company would be expensive compared to e.g. an Indian or Chinese one.
For EAs reading: I'd love to see a cost-effectiveness analysis of UCF, and would be happy to fund one. Please contact me here or at macsweenroddy AT gmail.com if you'd be interested in doing one.
Two interesting questions that bounce of this are "how many members does EA have?" (obviously this is somewhat vague) and "how many members would be optimal?" (more members has clear benefits, but it's presumably possible to get too big). From e.g. Facebook group membership and survey responses, it seems like the answer to the first question is somewhere in the 1000-10000 range. I'm not sure what the best points of comparison with regard to the second question are, but the Extinction Rebellion movement, most major British political parties, and Scientology all have significantly more members.
Thanks, that's very useful. I've been looking into this some more, and I have some more questions:
I appreciate that avoiding the risks of a sugarcane monoculture is valuable separate from increasing the average income. But I'm still surprised that the average annual income with sorghum could be lower than with sugarcane. Is there some thing I'm missing about the price of sugarcane or the costs of growing it?
Thanks Anthony, this is a very interesting post (and I appreciate your answer to my question on your previous post). I have a couple more questions if you have time to answer them:
As Anthony mentions, I'm keen to fund a cost-effectiveness analysis of this project. Please email me at macsweenroddy AT gmail.com if you're interested or can point me to anyone who might be.
Dear Anthony, I really hope UCF is successful. I think it deserves significantly more attention from effective altruists than it has received so far. I just donated on your donorbox link. One thing I'm curious about: what's your reason for choosing Alvan Blanch for the grain-processing system? I don't know anything about agro plants, but I would have guessed a UK company would be expensive compared to e.g. an Indian or Chinese one.
For EAs reading: I'd love to see a cost-effectiveness analysis of UCF, and would be happy to fund one. Please contact me here or at macsweenroddy AT gmail.com if you'd be interested in doing one.
Two interesting questions that bounce of this are "how many members does EA have?" (obviously this is somewhat vague) and "how many members would be optimal?" (more members has clear benefits, but it's presumably possible to get too big). From e.g. Facebook group membership and survey responses, it seems like the answer to the first question is somewhere in the 1000-10000 range. I'm not sure what the best points of comparison with regard to the second question are, but the Extinction Rebellion movement, most major British political parties, and Scientology all have significantly more members.