I agree with you that ecological collapse isn't an existential risk to civilization.
I'm primarily concerned with the risks associated with having global systems completely dependent on fossil fuel production. Our systems rely on a constant supply of oil to function, and if anything happens to that supply, systems would fail and it would be a cascading effect.
Take polders in The Netherlands, for example. Much of The Netherlands is below sea-level, and so they must contstantly pump out water to prevent the polders from filling. In the past they used windmills to power the pumps; now they use fossil fuels. The question is- if fossil fuels ran out, how would the Dutch run their pumps to drain their polders?
This concept applies global food production as well. The extreme population growth of the 20th century was made possible because of oil. Currently, ~8 billion people depend on a steady stream of oil to produce their food. Say, for whatever reason, a global catastrophe decreased the oil supply by 10%. How would we produce enough food to feed people with a decrease in oil supply? My concern is that our current system of food production is fragile because it depends on a constant supply of oil. It seems to me that if something were to destabilize oil production, there is a risk of cascading effects throughout global society.
I'm coming from the perspective that we can't really predict the future, but we can look at the fragility of our current systems and assess the risk accordingly.
I just don't understand how anyone could guarantee oil production continuing the next few decades. I also don't see renewables saving us, considering that industry is also dependent on oil production.
I agree with you that ecological collapse isn't an existential risk to civilization.
I'm primarily concerned with the risks associated with having global systems completely dependent on fossil fuel production. Our systems rely on a constant supply of oil to function, and if anything happens to that supply, systems would fail and it would be a cascading effect.
Take polders in The Netherlands, for example. Much of The Netherlands is below sea-level, and so they must contstantly pump out water to prevent the polders from filling. In the past they used windmills to power the pumps; now they use fossil fuels. The question is- if fossil fuels ran out, how would the Dutch run their pumps to drain their polders?
This concept applies global food production as well. The extreme population growth of the 20th century was made possible because of oil. Currently, ~8 billion people depend on a steady stream of oil to produce their food. Say, for whatever reason, a global catastrophe decreased the oil supply by 10%. How would we produce enough food to feed people with a decrease in oil supply? My concern is that our current system of food production is fragile because it depends on a constant supply of oil. It seems to me that if something were to destabilize oil production, there is a risk of cascading effects throughout global society.
I'm coming from the perspective that we can't really predict the future, but we can look at the fragility of our current systems and assess the risk accordingly.
I just don't understand how anyone could guarantee oil production continuing the next few decades. I also don't see renewables saving us, considering that industry is also dependent on oil production.
Would love to hear your take