Any update?

Thanks! Are many of the ~14B new chicks each year coming from a relatively small number of breeding hens who have many offspring? Or is it mostly 2 chicks per hen?

4:30 "Most of the world's 8 billion egg-laying hens, roughly one for every person alive on Earth today, are confined right now in cages like these."

4:56 "The egg industry has no need for the 7 billion male chicks born annually, so it kills them on their first day alive in this world."

Just to check my understanding of the numbers here:

Google tells me "Egg-laying hens on factory farms typically live for 12 to 18 months, or about a year and a half, before they are slaughtered when their egg production begins to decline."

So I guess once each year on average the population of 8 billion egg-laying hens is replaced by a new population of 8 billion egg-laying hens. So the breeding hens are having about 15 billion chicks annually (7 billion male, 8 billion female). (Broiler chickens for meat are separate.)

How would you evaluate the cost-effectiveness of Writing Doom – Award-Winning Short Film on Superintelligence (2024) in this framework?

(More info on the film's creation in the FLI interview: Suzy Shepherd on Imagining Superintelligence and "Writing Doom")

It received 507,000 views, and at 27 minutes long, if the average viewer watched 1/3 of it, then that's 507,000*27*1/3=4,563,000 VM.

I don't recall whether the $20,000 Grand Prize it received was enough to reimburse Suzy for her cost to produce it and pay for her time, but if so, that'd be 4,563,000VM/$20,000=228 VM/$.

Not sure how to do the quality adjustment using the OP framework, but naively my intuition is that short films like this one are more effective at changing peoples' minds on the importance of the problem per minute than average videos of the AI Safety channels. How valuable it is probably depends mostly on how valuable shifting the opinion of the general public is. It's not a video that I'd expect to create AI safety researchers, but I expect it did help shift the Overton window on AI risk.

Drew Spartz's channel: https://www.youtube.com/@AISpecies

Footnote 2 completely changes the meaning of the statement from common sense interpretations of the statement. It makes it so that e.g. a future scenario in which AI takes over and causes existential catastrophe and the extinction of biological humans this century does not count as extinction, so long as the AI continues to exist. As such, I chose to ignore it with my "fairly strongly agree" answer.

I endorse this for non-EA vegans who aren't willing to donate the money to wherever it will do the most good in general, but as my other comments have pointed out if a person (vegan or non-vegan) is willing to donate the money to wherever it will so the most good then they should just do that rather than donate it for the purpose of offsetting.

Per my top-level comment citing Claire Zabel's post Ethical offsetting is antithetical to EA, offsetting past consumption seems worse than just donating that money to wherever it will do the most good in general.

I see you've taken the 10% Pledge, so I gather you're willing to donate effectively.

While you might feel better if you both donate X% to wherever you believe it will do the most good and $Y to the best animal charities to offset your past animal consumption, I think you instead ought to just donate X%+$Y to wherever it will do the most good.

NB: Maybe you happen to think the best giving opportunity to help animals is the best giving opportunity in general, but if not then my claim is that your offsetting behavior is a mistake.

This seems like a useful fundraising tool to target people who are unwilling to give their money to wherever it will do the most good, but I think it should be flagged that if a person is willing to donate their money to wherever it will do the most good then they should do that rather than donate to the best animal giving opportunities for the purpose of ethical offsetting. See Ethical offsetting is antithetical to EA.

FYI you can edit your original comment to add this in.