204Scoring forecasts from the 2016 “Expert Survey on Progress in AI”PatrickL·3y ago·Curated 3y ago·10m readPatrickL·3y ago·Curated 3y ago·10m read2121
159Survey on AI existential risk scenariosSam Clarke, jonasschuett, ac·5y ago·8m readSam Clarke, jonasschuett, ac+ 2 more·5y ago·8m read1111
142A practical guide to long-term planning – and suggestions for longtermismweeatquince🔸·5y ago·25m readweeatquince🔸·5y ago·25m read1313
135Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experienceCharles Dillon 🔸·5y ago·27m readCharles Dillon 🔸·5y ago·27m read77
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79The Epistemic Challenge to Longtermism (Tarsney, 2020)MichaelA🔸·5y ago·2m readMichaelA🔸·5y ago·2m read2727
67Future technological progress does NOT correlate with methods that involve less sufferingJim Buhler·3y ago·4m readJim Buhler·3y ago·4m read1212
64[Linkpost] Dan Luu: Futurist prediction methods and accuracyLinch·4y ago·5m readLinch·4y ago·5m read77
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48Superforecasting Long-Term Risks and Climate ChangeLuisEUrtubey·4y ago·3m readLuisEUrtubey·4y ago·3m read
43Discussions of Longtermism should focus on the problem of UnawarenessJim Buhler·1y ago·41m readJim Buhler·1y ago·41m read11