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BLUF:
* To determine whether AI is ‘improving exponentially’, ‘hitting the wall’, or any other claim which involves a quantity or magnitude (e.g. ‘This model was a big leap/small increment’). We need a good y-axis: an interval scale of AI capability which means +1 unit always represents the same degree of ‘how much better’, in the same way +1 degree Celsius is always the same amount of ‘how much hotter’.
* Yet there is no good y-axis for AI capability. All our...
Last year, we (Czech priorities) have done a foresight study on global megatrends for the Czech government, where we worked with the 2040-50 horizon. The outcomes are meant to provide a broad framework for national R&I funding. We applied some innovations such as a forecasting tournament as a wider participatory input. Here is the website and ENG version of the results and methodology. Happy to chat, if it´d be useful.