Last year, we (Czech priorities) have done a foresight study on global megatrends for the Czech government, where we worked with the 2040-50 horizon. The outcomes are meant to provide a broad framework for national R&I funding. We applied some innovations such as a forecasting tournament as a wider participatory input. Here is the website and ENG version of the results and methodology. Happy to chat, if it´d be useful.
[Question]
Does any EA org try do a wholistic prediction of global trends 20 years out?
This would be something similar to the Global Trends report produced by the National Intelligence Council. It seems like something like this would be useful for cause prioritization in the medium term.
Edit: The match seems to now be over - the funds were expended in around 35 minutes. But many of these charities are great and should be supported regardless!
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On October 22nd starting at 10:00am Pacific Time, Every.org is matching donations to select animal welfare organizations at a 2:1 rate, up to $2,000 per donor per nonprofit (so if you give up to $2,000, they will contribute up to $4,000 and the nonprofit will get up to $6,000). The first donation a donor makes to each el...
Crossposted to Less Wrong
‘Like most of life’s dangers, the dangers of artificial intelligence are not easily identified from the armchair.’
J Dmitri Gallow
Epistemic status
I’m not an expert in this field, and herein I make some sweeping generalisations educated guesses about the overall...
Last year, we (Czech priorities) have done a foresight study on global megatrends for the Czech government, where we worked with the 2040-50 horizon. The outcomes are meant to provide a broad framework for national R&I funding. We applied some innovations such as a forecasting tournament as a wider participatory input. Here is the website and ENG version of the results and methodology. Happy to chat, if it´d be useful.