This is a link post for the talk given by Max Franz Johann Schnetker at the 38th Chaos Communication Congress. I think it's an interesting sociological analysis of longtermism, and I think Longtermists and EAs need to understand that this is a function of Longtermism.
The talk with original German audio
The talk with dubbed English audio (if you listen to this, please leave a comment about the quality)
Longtermism is the new hype ideology of Silicon Valley. Elon Musk and Sam Altman have publicly identified as proponents, and it is the official corporate policy of OpenAI. Longtermism postulates that we should not focus on the present or near future, but instead direct our political attention toward the development of a "computer heaven" in the distant future. Central to this are assumptions about the developmental possibilities of artificial intelligence, which bear distinctly religious traits.
The presentation introduces the findings of sociological research on this new ideology.
However, it is not entirely new. The "morality" of longtermism aligns surprisingly well with the business goals of digital corporations, transforming these goals into a form of metaphysics. This social function of longtermism is reminiscent of the role Max Weber identified for Protestantism as the "spirit" of capitalism in early capitalism. Like Protestantism once did, longtermism today serves as both a metaphysical justification for corporate business models and an individual ethic intended to motivate its adherents to greater performance.
Currently, we are witnessing a rightward shift in longtermism, with prominent figures like Elon Musk and Peter Thiel openly supporting Donald Trump. Here too, the development of longtermism mirrors similar earlier ideologies. Classic analyses demonstrate why individualistic performance ideologies have the potential to veer in a fascist direction. This helps explain the rightward shift among Silicon Valley elites.
The presentation concludes by examining the influence of Musk and Thiel on the U.S. elections and attempts to forecast future developments.
I never quite know how to engage with sociological analysis of this sort. It attacks longtermism not by its arguments as a philosophical stance, but by its function as a social group.
This is however, how the world works. If someone powerful proclaims an altruistic motive for a move that just happens to increase their power (like Elon entering MAGA and trying to reduce the power of government), alarm bells should be going off.
Moreover, Longtermism should not be central to our society. Longtermism provides a convenient justification for all sorts of monstrosities, simply because it says all of us are less important than trillions of people in the future. That's not something that democracy really is compatible with.
I propose that no more than 1% of our societal resources go towards long-term thought and planning. That's much more than we do today, but it's less dangerous to humans currently alive.