A preliminary estimate, and a request for better ones.
Summary
I believe the standard literature estimates for the number of DALYs attributable to a case of stunting are too low, largely because they don’t account for the long term effects. This means that childhood nutritional interventions that reduce the prevalence of stunting may be substantially more cost-effective than previously believed.
Epistemic status
Exploratory and back-o...
Note: This post was crossposted from Planned Obsolescence by the Forum team, with the author's permission. The author may not see or respond to comments on this post.
Subtitle: It’s a major warning shot, and might be the last one we get
All opinions are my personal view, and don’t represent my employer or fellow investigators.
This week, METR and Redwood Research published...
Overview
This post summarizes a new preprint on alternative proteins from the Humane and Sustainable Food Lab: New alternatives, same orders. We investigated 19...
Predict your year in 2025: a website for tracking your forecasts
2024 is over. Did your life this year align with your expectations? What came out of nowhere and threw off your predictions? Did your actions align with your intentions? What fresh goals are you planning?
We've built predict your year in 2025, a space for you to write down your predictions for the year. At the end of your year, you can return, resolve your predictions as YES, NO or AMBIGUOUS, and reflect.
We've written some starter questions to make it super easy to get started predicting your year. You can tweak these and write your own - those will likely be the most important questions for you.
You can use this tool to predict your personal life in 2025 - your goals, relationships, work, health, and adventures. If you like, you can share your predictions with friends - for fun, for better predictions, and for motivation to achieve your goals this year!
You can also use this tool to predict questions relevant to your team or organisation in the coming year - your team strategy, performance, big financial questions, and potentially disruptive black swans. You can share your predictions with your team and let everyone contribute, to build common knowledge about expectations and pool your insights.
If you use Slack, you can also share your page of predictions in a Slack channel (e.g. #2025-predictions or #strategy), so everyone can easily discuss in threads and return to it throughout the year.
I hope you have a good time thinking about your coming year, and that it sparks some great conversations with friends and teammates.
Happy new year!