Cross-posted from my Substack.
Epistemic status: I’ve puzzled over this for a long time but I’m not sure I came to the right answers. I'm sharing this partly because it might help others work on resource allocation, but mostly because some smarter reader might tell me how to do it better.
TL;DR:
* I he...
With the AI windfall, mental health may be taken increasingly seriously by mainstream EA. There’s increasingly room to explore the cause area and answer some of the biggest uncertainties; at the same time, costs of the most effective interventions are continuing to fall. StrongMinds is now treating for ~$35, about a third of GiveWell’s best guess from a few years ago, and is expected to...
This post is part of the Cross-Cause Fund (CCF) series by Rethink Priorities — a sequence of articles dedicated to effective giving across philanthropic areas.
TL;DR:
There is a seemingly plausible argument that do...
Predict your year in 2025: a website for tracking your forecasts
2024 is over. Did your life this year align with your expectations? What came out of nowhere and threw off your predictions? Did your actions align with your intentions? What fresh goals are you planning?
We've built predict your year in 2025, a space for you to write down your predictions for the year. At the end of your year, you can return, resolve your predictions as YES, NO or AMBIGUOUS, and reflect.
We've written some starter questions to make it super easy to get started predicting your year. You can tweak these and write your own - those will likely be the most important questions for you.
You can use this tool to predict your personal life in 2025 - your goals, relationships, work, health, and adventures. If you like, you can share your predictions with friends - for fun, for better predictions, and for motivation to achieve your goals this year!
You can also use this tool to predict questions relevant to your team or organisation in the coming year - your team strategy, performance, big financial questions, and potentially disruptive black swans. You can share your predictions with your team and let everyone contribute, to build common knowledge about expectations and pool your insights.
If you use Slack, you can also share your page of predictions in a Slack channel (e.g. #2025-predictions or #strategy), so everyone can easily discuss in threads and return to it throughout the year.
I hope you have a good time thinking about your coming year, and that it sparks some great conversations with friends and teammates.
Happy new year!