Hide table of contents

I haven't thought hard about this, but my guess is suicide hotline volunteers aren't that stellar and you could counterfactually save 1-5 more lives per day by volunteering and being great at your job. I'm making some low-confidence guesses about the number of calls you would get per day. 

If you exclude heavy-tailed bets I think the current cost to save a life is something like $3000 - $6000, so you're saving more lives than if you earn to give and donate to malaria charities. 

Is there a reason this isn't recommended more?
 

13

0
4

Reactions

0
4
New Answer
New Comment


4 Answers sorted by

my guess is [...] you could counterfactually save 1-5 more lives per day by volunteering and being great at your job. 

I'm skeptical. That would mean that your average hotline volunteer is speaking to 1-5 new people per day who subsequently take their lives, but would not have if the call were handled better. This seems implausible purely on the basis that most suicide attempts fail (5-11% of people who ever attempt end up ever succeeding). Added to this, I suspect that some (most?) people who call are thinking about suicide but not literally about to do it, some (most?) are making multiple calls to the hotline, and that some of the worst cases may be possible to save today but will take their lives in a few months' time. Basically, I suspect that each call that a volunteer successfully handles would be worth more like 0.001 or 0.01 of an averted suicide.

I did (non-suicide) helpline training once and was struck by how formalised it is. Volunteers were supposed to be listeners, reflecting the callers' thoughts back to them and avoiding giving advice. This is likely a strategy to minimise the harm caused by layperson volunteers interacting with very vulnerable people. I would suspect that suicide hotlines have fairly rigid guidelines on how to handle calls, probably with more specific training on how to help the caller de-escalate their suicidal thoughts in the moment. My concern would be that this leaves little wiggle room for being "great at your job", and anyone trying to be significantly more effective may actually do damage by going off-script.

Would love to hear from someone with direct experience!

This answers my question, and I'm now pretty convinced being a volunteer is not that impactful. Thank you!

That's brilliant Stan what a great explanation! To clarify as well, it seems something like as a point estimate between 1 in 20 and 1 in 35 suicide attempts succeed, obviously a bit lower than the overall number of people who end up succeeding some after multiple attemps.

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0089944

https://www.uptodate.com/contents/suicidal-ideation-and-behavior-in-adults/abstract/19

I answered calls for Samaritans for about a year, and answered texts on Shout for about the same amount of time before that. From my own experience, I'd say 1 to 5 lives per day is extremely optimistic, for the following reasons:

  • The vast majority of callers are not planning to take their lives right at that moment / imminently. People call for all kinds of reasons - e.g. loneliness, bereavement, being in prison and that sucking, trying to stop self harming, etc. 
  • The majority of calls are from repeat callers (and a significant minority are misuse of the service). Only a few are calling for the first time. (Samaritans doesn't track people, but people often just say they call regularly. Shout did track people. I forget the exact % of conversations that were not first time users but it was definitely most.) And this is obvious right - if someone calls 20 times they generate 20 more calls than someone who calls once.
  • For people who really are at severe risk, the reduction in the probability of suicide from one call is pretty unclear, but is certainly much less than 100%.  Even for someone who eventually works through what they're dealing with, it will probably have taken many calls, use of other mental health services, reliance on friends etc., probably over months or years.

I'm not aware of any trials of this kind of intervention, but they could be done. E.g. introducing a new hotline service in a country that doesn't currently have one, but only for a randomly selected half of districts/counties/states, and then comparing the impact on suicide rates over time.

My own unscientific feeling from doing this was that I probably helped a lot of people feel better that day / deal with some kind of crisis, but probably directly prevented very few suicides, if any.

Edit: thinking about the numbers a bit: there are ~6500 suicide deaths in the UK per year. Samaritans has something like 150 people answering phones 24/7 (extremely rough). So if every one of those 6500 people calls (absurd) and if the service improved so much they all survived (also absurd) that's still only 0.04 lives per person day (taking a day as 8 hours). So I think you have to start there and maybe go down a few OOMs due to those absurdly optimistic assumptions.

My first question would be: is the particular suicide hotline you're looking at currently turning people away/making people wait a long time because of lack of volunteers? If so, every extra person could be very valuable.

If not, you might be replacing a less skilled volunteer. The question then becomes, how often would you save a life when they wouldn't? That's a hard question and it's not easy for me to know the answer, but it's probably not every night. Lots of people call a hotline with their mind already made up one way or the other.

I did some math here, but now think that I was terribly optimistic and I took people's self-reports about helpfulness too seriously. Maybe it's still useful as an upper bound.  

Comments2
Sorted by Click to highlight new comments since:

I'm going to stick to forum norms and assume good faith in this question. There is also every chance I am misinterpreting it (it's very early!).

I'm curious as to what has prompted "my guess is suicide hotline volunteers aren't that stellar", and the assumption that for whatever reason people in this forum would be any better? It seems the entire premise here rests on those two unevidenced assertions, which potentially explains why this path isn't recommended more.
 

my guess is suicide hotline volunteers aren't that stellar

I thought this because it's probably not very enjoyable and of course you're not paid. So I assumed there aren't going to be many people putting in tons of effort to be a great volunteer.

Why are people on the forum better?

I'm not sure if they are? I also don't think this matters to me, and don't think this is how career recommendations in EA work. 

Career recommendations I see primarily consider how much impact you have already assuming you're amazing at your job.  For example, being an excellent communicator/writer or a good entrepreneur are career recommendations I've seen quite a bit, and I'm not sure how great forum users are at these. If there aren't enough people like this on the forum, there will separately be some other post saying "We need more people who are good at this in EA."

I separately also think the skills to be a good volunteer are teachable and forum users are willing to put in lots of effort to get good at them. 

Curated and popular this week
 ·  · 16m read
 · 
This is a crosspost for The Case for Insect Consciousness by Bob Fischer, which was originally published on Asterisk in January 2025. [Subtitle.] The evidence that insects feel pain is mounting, however we approach the issue. For years, I was on the fence about the possibility of insects feeling pain — sometimes, I defended the hypothesis;[1] more often, I argued against it.[2] Then, in 2021, I started working on the puzzle of how to compare pain intensity across species. If a human and a pig are suffering as much as each one can, are they suffering the same amount? Or is the human’s pain worse? When my colleagues and I looked at several species, investigating both the probability of pain and its relative intensity,[3] we found something unexpected: on both scores, insects aren’t that different from many other animals.  Around the same time, I started working with an entomologist with a background in neuroscience. She helped me appreciate the weaknesses of the arguments against insect pain. (For instance, people make a big deal of stories about praying mantises mating while being eaten; they ignore how often male mantises fight fiercely to avoid being devoured.) The more I studied the science of sentience, the less confident I became about any theory that would let us rule insect sentience out.  I’m a philosopher, and philosophers pride themselves on following arguments wherever they lead. But we all have our limits, and I worry, quite sincerely, that I’ve been too willing to give insects the benefit of the doubt. I’ve been troubled by what we do to farmed animals for my entire adult life, whereas it’s hard to feel much for flies. Still, I find the argument for insect pain persuasive enough to devote a lot of my time to insect welfare research. In brief, the apparent evidence for the capacity of insects to feel pain is uncomfortably strong.[4] We could dismiss it if we had a consensus-commanding theory of sentience that explained why the apparent evidence is ir
 ·  · 1m read
 · 
I recently read a blog post that concluded with: > When I'm on my deathbed, I won't look back at my life and wish I had worked harder. I'll look back and wish I spent more time with the people I loved. Setting aside that some people don't have the economic breathing room to make this kind of tradeoff, what jumps out at me is the implication that you're not working on something important that you'll endorse in retrospect. I don't think the author is envisioning directly valuable work (reducing risk from international conflict, pandemics, or AI-supported totalitarianism; improving humanity's treatment of animals; fighting global poverty) or the undervalued less direct approach of earning money and donating it to enable others to work on pressing problems. Definitely spend time with your friends, family, and those you love. Don't work to the exclusion of everything else that matters in your life. But if your tens of thousands of hours at work aren't something you expect to look back on with pride, consider whether there's something else you could be doing professionally that you could feel good about.
 ·  · 14m read
 · 
Introduction In this post, I present what I believe to be an important yet underexplored argument that fundamentally challenges the promise of cultivated meat. In essence, there are compelling reasons to conclude that cultivated meat will not replace conventional meat, but will instead primarily compete with other alternative proteins that offer superior environmental and ethical benefits. Moreover, research into and promotion of cultivated meat may potentially result in a net negative impact. Beyond critique, I try to offer constructive recommendations for the EA movement. While I've kept this post concise, I'm more than willing to elaborate on any specific point upon request. Finally, I contacted a few GFI team members to ensure I wasn't making any major errors in this post, and I've tried to incorporate some of their nuances in response to their feedback. From industry to academia: my cultivated meat journey I'm currently in my fourth year (and hopefully final one!) of my PhD. My thesis examines the environmental and economic challenges associated with alternative proteins. I have three working papers on cultivated meat at various stages of development, though none have been published yet. Prior to beginning my doctoral studies, I spent two years at Gourmey, a cultivated meat startup. I frequently appear in French media discussing cultivated meat, often "defending" it in a media environment that tends to be hostile and where misinformation is widespread. For a considerable time, I was highly optimistic about cultivated meat, which was a significant factor in my decision to pursue doctoral research on this subject. However, in the last two years, my perspective regarding cultivated meat has evolved and become considerably more ambivalent. Motivations and epistemic status Although the hype has somewhat subsided and organizations like Open Philanthropy have expressed skepticism about cultivated meat, many people in the movement continue to place considerable hop