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Our tech team (JP, plus the LessWrong developers) made a lot of changes this month!

Embedded content

Several types of embedded content are now available on the Forum. You’ll have to be in the standard editor to make them work, though — not the Markdown editor.

Note that when I talk about "pasting in URLs" below, you'll have to paste the URL by itself; this won't work if you paste in a block of text that includes an embeddable URL.

Elicit predictions

Using Elicit, you can create forecasting questions and contribute predictions right here on the Forum!

If you create a question, you’ll see it pop up on the list of all questions. From that list, click any question to open the “copy URL” button, then click that button:

Paste that URL into a Forum post, and you’ll get an interactive forecast:

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kyle Kilian (0%),botahamec (0%),Tachikoma (1%),burrito (5%)
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Nathan Simons (30%)
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jimrandomh (40%),alokja (40%),avturchin (44%)
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Zack_M_Davis (60%),Rafael Harth (61%),Maxwell Peterson (64%),DanielFilan (65%),João Bosco Lucena Filho (65%),Amanda N (65%),frankybegs (65%),Gunnar_Zarncke (66%),Rana Dexsin (68%)
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Sean Hardy (80%),Maria Shakhova (80%),paulfchristiano (80%),Andreas S (80%),Raemon (82%),elifland (82%),this.is.patrick (83%),steven0461 (84%),Dach (85%),Mark Xu (85%),mr-hire (85%),Tamay (85%),VermillionStuka (85%),jacobjacob (85%),meanderingmoose (85%),Gurkenglas (85%),Bohaska (86%),Lauro Langosco (86%),Zvi (87%),BrianTan (87%),Ozyrus (89%)
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meerpirat (90%),fiddler (90%),rohinmshah (90%),Patrick (90%),Measure (90%),bon (90%),NaiveTortoise (90%),Alex Ray (90%),newcom (90%),RowanE (90%),HT U (91%),Mati Roy (91%),David Pape (91%),hath (91%),Neel Nanda (92%),james (92%),evelynciara (92%),Zack P (93%),the coding dog (93%),peterbarnett (93%),Charlie Jackson (94%),Noa Nabeshima (94%),Pablo (94%),dregntael (95%),Lukas Finnveden (95%),Alex K. Chen (95%),Flo 🔸 (95%),D0TheMath (95%),gabriel b (95%),__nobody (95%),Mary Phuong (95%),technicalities (95%),Matthew Barnett (95%),zielmicha (95%),Chris van Merwijk (95%),Pialgo (95%),Mason Wang (96%),atlas (96%),Alibi (96%),OlyaBabe (96%),Jonathanm (97%),JasperGo (97%),Isaac Dunn (97%),arxhy (97%),Hjalmar_Wijk (97%),akaTrickster (97%),Jsevillamol (97%),Alejandro Acelas (97%),Benjy Forstadt (97%),Misha_Yagudin (98%),Ethan Perez (98%),Veedrac (98%),The_Golden_Compass (98%),NicholasKross (98%),seed (98%),brook (99%),jgil (99%),Mr Axilus (99%),Aaron Gertler 🔸 (99%),imp4rtial 🔸 (99%),Emiya (99%),algon33 (99%),Jonas (99%),Alexei (99%),Kontherad (99%),habryka (99%),Jeffrey Yun (99%),Kit Harris (99%),EdoArad (99%),Archimedes (99%),kittH (99%),janus (99%),mic (99%),Ben Pace (99%),Telofy (99%),tassilo.neubauer (99%),Davidmanheim (99%),yagudin (99%),Heido Nõmm (99%),howtodowtle (99%),adamShimi (99%),Perhaps (99%),KStub (99%),Max_Daniel (99%),Mikhail Samin (99%),Blippo (99%),Self_Optimization (99%),nathanpmyoung (99%),Sinclair Chen (99%),Flawed S (99.8%)
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Will more than 50 people predict on this post?
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However, you may still want to include a link to the question's page on Elicit, so that people can see it in more detail (the URL isn't available within the embed).

See Amanda Ngo's post for more detail on using embedded Elicit predictions, and this post on AGI-related predictions for an example of how these can be used.

YouTube videos

Because EA isn’t about deception, I’m not going to hide what this video is:

Just paste a YouTube URL into your post, and you’ll see the video pop up.

Metaculus questions

These were previously visible if you hovered over a Metaculus URL, but are now fully embeddable (and thus, functional on mobile). 

Pasting a URL for a Metaculus question will produce an embedded chart:

Posts now default to Frontpage

Previously, all new posts started out with a “Personal Blog” tag, which meant that they had to be given the “Frontpage” tag by a moderator in order to show up on the front page.

Now, all new posts will start out with a “Frontpage” tag. Posts that aren’t clearly relevant to effective altruism will be moved to “Personal Blog” by a moderator.

Most new posts fit into the “Frontpage” category, so we expect this change to save a lot of time and trouble for authors and moderators alike.

To keep out spam, posts by new users will still be completely hidden until a moderator has reviewed that user.

Various minor changes

The Forum’s sidebar now contains a link to the EA Hub’s group directory. We hope this helps more new users find groups and events.

Better social media preview images

When you link to a post with an image, the preview image (e.g. for Facebook) will default to the first image in the post — rather than the Forum's logo, as was the case before.

Subscript and superscript support

Both of our editors now support sub- and superscript! Here’s what it looks like: 

Subscript   superscript

However, you’ll have to paste in the text for this to work in the main editor; we don’t have sub- or superscript buttons yet. 

In Markdown, you can access subscript with the following syntax:

H~2~0 = H2O

Superscript may be available, too; I'll update this post when I know more.

Changes to Recent Discussion

Previously, clicking “load more” in the Recent Discussion section of the frontpage would eventually stop working. Now, Recent Discussion uses infinite scroll to display an endless stream of insightful comments (as well as my comments).

Also, comments on tags will now appear in Recent Discussion.

Comments1


Sorted by Click to highlight new comments since:

Feature request: Create an option for content in the "Recent Discussion" section to be sorted based on the "Magic (New & Upvoted)" formula used for "Frontpage Posts" instead of based solely on recency. This would allow people without time to go through every single piece of new content to still be able to find and engage with important new comments. 

Curated and popular this week
 ·  · 16m read
 · 
This is a crosspost for The Case for Insect Consciousness by Bob Fischer, which was originally published on Asterisk in January 2025. [Subtitle.] The evidence that insects feel pain is mounting, however we approach the issue. For years, I was on the fence about the possibility of insects feeling pain — sometimes, I defended the hypothesis;[1] more often, I argued against it.[2] Then, in 2021, I started working on the puzzle of how to compare pain intensity across species. If a human and a pig are suffering as much as each one can, are they suffering the same amount? Or is the human’s pain worse? When my colleagues and I looked at several species, investigating both the probability of pain and its relative intensity,[3] we found something unexpected: on both scores, insects aren’t that different from many other animals.  Around the same time, I started working with an entomologist with a background in neuroscience. She helped me appreciate the weaknesses of the arguments against insect pain. (For instance, people make a big deal of stories about praying mantises mating while being eaten; they ignore how often male mantises fight fiercely to avoid being devoured.) The more I studied the science of sentience, the less confident I became about any theory that would let us rule insect sentience out.  I’m a philosopher, and philosophers pride themselves on following arguments wherever they lead. But we all have our limits, and I worry, quite sincerely, that I’ve been too willing to give insects the benefit of the doubt. I’ve been troubled by what we do to farmed animals for my entire adult life, whereas it’s hard to feel much for flies. Still, I find the argument for insect pain persuasive enough to devote a lot of my time to insect welfare research. In brief, the apparent evidence for the capacity of insects to feel pain is uncomfortably strong.[4] We could dismiss it if we had a consensus-commanding theory of sentience that explained why the apparent evidence is ir
 ·  · 7m read
 · 
Introduction I have been writing posts critical of mainstream EA narratives about AI capabilities and timelines for many years now. Compared to the situation when I wrote my posts in 2018 or 2020, LLMs now dominate the discussion, and timelines have also shrunk enormously. The ‘mainstream view’ within EA now appears to be that human-level AI will be arriving by 2030, even as early as 2027. This view has been articulated by 80,000 Hours, on the forum (though see this excellent piece excellent piece arguing against short timelines), and in the highly engaging science fiction scenario of AI 2027. While my article piece is directed generally against all such short-horizon views, I will focus on responding to relevant portions of the article ‘Preparing for the Intelligence Explosion’ by Will MacAskill and Fin Moorhouse.  Rates of Growth The authors summarise their argument as follows: > Currently, total global research effort grows slowly, increasing at less than 5% per year. But total AI cognitive labour is growing more than 500x faster than total human cognitive labour, and this seems likely to remain true up to and beyond the point where the cognitive capabilities of AI surpasses all humans. So, once total AI cognitive labour starts to rival total human cognitive labour, the growth rate of overall cognitive labour will increase massively. That will drive faster technological progress. MacAskill and Moorhouse argue that increases in training compute, inference compute and algorithmic efficiency have been increasing at a rate of 25 times per year, compared to the number of human researchers which increases 0.04 times per year, hence the 500x faster rate of growth. This is an inapt comparison, because in the calculation the capabilities of ‘AI researchers’ are based on their access to compute and other performance improvements, while no such adjustment is made for human researchers, who also have access to more compute and other productivity enhancements each year.
 ·  · 21m read
 · 
Introduction ~440 billion shrimps are farmed each year [1]. This is over 5x the total number of all farmed land animals put together [2]. Many farmed shrimps suffer from conditions that can and should be addressed, such as poor water quality, high stocking densities, inhumane slaughter methods, and avoidable mutilations (such as eyestalk ablation) [3]. Shrimp Welfare Project is an organisation of people who believe that shrimps are capable of suffering and deserve our moral consideration [4]. We aim to cost-effectively reduce the suffering of billions of farmed shrimps. This post is essentially an expanded version of our 2025 Funding Proposal.  If you want the TL;DR version of this post, I'd recommend reading that. (Shr)Impact and Vision Shrimp Welfare Project has four workstreams, two of which we consider our Core or Foundational workstreams - those are Corporate Engagement and Farmer Support. Two more are relatively new, but we think they have a lot of potential, and those are Research & Policy, and Precision Welfare. For each workstream, I want to talk you through: * Our mission statement for the workstream * The problem we’re trying to solve through this workstream, * The strategy we’re taking to solve the problem, * The successes we’ve had so far * And our vision for 2030 Core: Corporate Engagement Catalysing industry-wide adoption of pre-slaughter stunning by buying and deploying electrical stunners to early adopters to build towards a tipping point that achieves critical mass. Problem (and Context) When we started Shrimp Welfare Project, we planned to originally work only directly with farmers. However, we soon became aware that unlike a lot of fish farming, which is often produced and consumed domestically, shrimps instead were bought and sold on the global market. In particular, most shrimps are farmed in the Global South (in places like Ecuador, India, and Vietnam), and then exported to countries in the Global North (such as those in Euro