Attempted summary of the 2019-nCoV situation — 80,000 Hours

Here's a list of public forecasting platforms where participants are tracking the situation:

Foretold is tracking ~20 questions and is open to anyone adding their own, but doesn't have very many predictions.

Metaculus is tracking a handful questions and has a substantial number of predictions.

The John Hopkins disease prediction project lists 3 questions. You have to sign up to view them. (I also think you can't see the crowd average before you've made your prediction.)

Thanks a lot for this podcast! I liked the summary you provided, and I think it is great to see people struggling to make sense of a lot of complex information on a topic, almost in direct. Given that you repeat multiple times that neither of you is an expert on the subject, I think this podcast is a net positive: it gives information while encouraging the listeners to go look for themselves.

Another great point: the criticism of the meme about overreacting. While listening to the beginning, when you said that there was no reason to panic, I wanted to object that preparing for possible catastrophes is as important, if not more important, to do before they are obviously here. But the discussion of the meme clarified this point, and I thought it was great.