I would wait for METR's actual evaluation — '30 hours' is just based on claims of continued effort, not actual successful performance on carefully measured tasks.
We are on an exponential curve - Claude Sonnet 4.5
Hello, I am lost of words honestly. I am feeling a mix of bewilderment, excitement, sadness and gratefulness. Not for this model drop, but for life and this overall development.
A new model just dropped, and it seems like as if this is somehow already twice as fast and large (didn't do the math yet) in autonomous task duration as METR estimated. Probably a lot more.
All I want to say for now is that I am grateful for each and every one of you and for have given me the chance to be part of a community where I did not feel like a black sheep.
Thank you for all of those that are actively trying to make the future go well and the world a bit better. However this continues, I wish you all the love in the world.
Note: This post was crossposted from the Coefficient Giving Farm Animal Welfare Research Newsletter by the Forum team, with the author's permission. The author may not see or respond to comments on this post.
Subtitle: On vegan advocacy, effective altruism, and FIFA
I turn 40 today. Here are some hot takes.
On factory farming
1. Our biggest challenge is salience. If factory farming led the evening news, it wouldn’t last lo...
Impressions from the 21st Annual U.S. Cluster Headache Patient Conference, organized by Clusterbusters.
On the morning of the last day of the conference, E. was hanging out with other “clusterheads” outside the conference hotel when he started having a cluster headache attack. Before he could go back to his hotel room, J. offered E. his DMT v...
TL;DR:
The movement has an evidence problem. To solve it, for each intervention we need to know:
* What types of evidence that intervention needs
* What types of evidence different sources can give us
In this post, we outline a framework for evidencing an intervention through five stages:
...
I would wait for METR's actual evaluation — '30 hours' is just based on claims of continued effort, not actual successful performance on carefully measured tasks.