I would wait for METR's actual evaluation — '30 hours' is just based on claims of continued effort, not actual successful performance on carefully measured tasks.
We are on an exponential curve - Claude Sonnet 4.5
Hello, I am lost of words honestly. I am feeling a mix of bewilderment, excitement, sadness and gratefulness. Not for this model drop, but for life and this overall development.
A new model just dropped, and it seems like as if this is somehow already twice as fast and large (didn't do the math yet) in autonomous task duration as METR estimated. Probably a lot more.
All I want to say for now is that I am grateful for each and every one of you and for have given me the chance to be part of a community where I did not feel like a black sheep.
Thank you for all of those that are actively trying to make the future go well and the world a bit better. However this continues, I wish you all the love in the world.
Disclaimer: This blog post focuses on a new piece of research from Rethink Priorities. I was not involved with the funding or execution of this research, and therefore write this piece merely as a consumer. However, I am the Executive Director of Giving Green and a board member of Rethink Priorities, and acknowledge that these affiliations may bias my...
I am writing up two charity ideas I’ve wanted to investigate, but haven’t been able to, in the hopes someone will investigate them further. If you end up investigating either, I'd be most interested to see what conclusions you come to!
Vulture preservation as a global health intervention
Since the mid 1990's the vulture population in India has been rapidly declining. The reason is due to a few chemicals which are fed to livestock, which is highly poisonous to vultures.
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Michael Nielsen has a beautiful new essay on moral imagination: the ability humans have to 'develop and transmit new notions of good action, indeed, even new kinds of good'.
As examples, he gives:
* Hammurabi's creation of a code of laws (in 1754 BCE) and his justification of his rule not in terms of divine or hereditary right, but by the delivery of justice to his citizens.
* St Gregory of Nyssa's...
I would wait for METR's actual evaluation — '30 hours' is just based on claims of continued effort, not actual successful performance on carefully measured tasks.