​The Wilberforce Report is an attempt to understand the challenges and opportunities facing animal wellbeing through to 2050 ^[1]. It provides a framework for considering the complex challenges facing animals in the coming decades. It is designed to help decision-makers navigate today’s uncertainties and understand the long-term implications for animal wellbeing. 

This is an extended summary of the report, though most of the text is taken directly from the report itself.

Drivers of Change

​The project identified 11 “drivers” that are likely to be the most important issues influencing the future of animal wellbeing:

In workshops and discussions, participants explored what the future might be like under different combinations of these drivers.

​Despite their commitment to the cause and their passion for animal wellbeing and welfare, participants saw climate change, the food system, and technological change as the main drivers of animal wellbeing in the future.

​Participants thought that outcomes for animals in the long term will be secondary considerations arising from the way society deals with those big questions facing society, specifically around climate change and the food system, but including issues like human health and food security.

​Participants are less likely to believe that consumer attitudes would shift independently, that there would be sharp, discontinuous changes in individual behaviours or beliefs, or that breakthroughs in our understanding of animal sentience would lead to fundamentally different conditions for animals, especially in the food system. They anticipate progress in our understanding of animal sentience, but this progress was less likely to shape human behaviours as much as our response to climate and technological change.​

The 11 drivers are listed in explored in further detail below, along with some Wildcard questions (i.e. potential developments with a low probability but large effect)

Human Connectedness to Animals

Human connectedness to animals can be viewed from several perspectives, including through psychology, cultural beliefs, and social norms. What are the patterns of behaviour and cultural norms about human interaction with animals in the future, and how might these change? Historically, humans and animals have coexisted in different roles such as companions, workers, spiritual entities, and food sources. As society has developed and our understanding of animals has improved, there could be a shift in many cultures towards viewing animals as sentient beings with individual rights. 

Wildcard - What if cats were banned from roaming free outside to save wildlife? How could the welfare implications for cats be managed? 

Legal Rights and Standing of Animals

The landscape of animal rights and wellbeing in 2050 could reflect a world where animals are more widely recognised as deserving of dignity, respect, and protection under the law. As society continues to grapple with the complex ethical questions surrounding our relationship with animals, this raises questions about animals’ legal standing. 

Wildcard - What if animals were no longer defined as property? What welfare might they enjoy? Is there social security for dogs? What would this mean for the responsibilities of owners? 

Technological Progress

The technological advances of the coming decades will almost certainly have the potential to radically improve or worsen animal wellbeing. From lab-grown meat competing with conventional meat, to displacing the animals used in laboratories, the necessity to use animals for human endeavours will be reduced in a way society has not seen before. But it is perhaps just as likely that technological progress will exacerbate the suffering of animals, where new technology is utilised to further exploit animals to increase efficiency and reduce costs for humans. 

Wildcard - What would the future look like if cultivated meat matches or improves upon conventionally farmed meat in terms of price, taste, convenience, and health? What would it mean for farms? Are there any other barriers to overcome? 

Farming Practices and Food Systems

Animal agriculture is at the nexus of climate change, biodiversity loss, human health, as well as animal welfare. The welfare of billions of animals depends on the choices society makes about farming practices and food systems. Economic challenges, changing market dynamics, evolving consumer expectations, and the impact of climate change are all presenting significant challenges for small-scale farmers and rural communities. 

Wildcard - What would happen to farming if animals that could not feel pain were developed through bioengineering? 

Consumer Preferences

Consumers will have a large say on the future of animal wellbeing, whether through consumption patterns impacting demand, or through campaigning for new legislation. This influence extends far beyond the consumption of animal products as food. Breeds of dogs with severe health implications, use of animals in sport and entertainment, and animal testing could all lose their social license over the next few decades. Alternatively, legacy, and social media could entrench current consumer preferences, turning the public against progressive positions.  

Wildcard - What if meat rationing was reintroduced as part of a package of lifestyle controls to meet climate change targets? Could this lead to illegal food production? 

​Social Movements for Animals 

Consumers will have a large say on the future of animal wellbeing, whether through consumption patterns impacting demand, or through campaigning for new legislation. This influence extends far beyond the consumption of animal products as food. Breeds of dogs with severe health implications, use of animals in sport and entertainment, and animal testing could all lose their social license over the next few decades. Alternatively, legacy, and social media could entrench current consumer preferences, turning the public against progressive positions.  

Wildcard - Could a ‘non-human Greta Thunberg’ really transform and spearhead the movement? What’s the potential for a pig using communication breakthroughs to campaign for rights? 

Scientific Progress in Understanding Wellbeing and Health

Animal welfare science is a relatively new field. Our knowledge on animals’ physical and mental wellbeing has greatly expanded. Aided by technological advances, the coming decades are likely to see significant breakthroughs. This includes deciphering animal communications, further research into what animals value, and advances in veterinary medicines and treatments. A clear, robust understanding of how animals think and feel could have huge implications for how humans interact with animals in the future. 

Wildcard - How would the world react to a scientific breakthrough that enabled communication between humans and animals?  

​Education on Animal Wellbeing

The future of animal wellbeing is intrinsically tied to the public's understanding and awareness of animal ethics and the systems that impact animal wellbeing. There are different possibilities for how education about animal welfare might be incorporated into school curricula, illuminating how differing approaches to education could significantly shape societal attitudes, policy decisions, and industry practices impacting animal welfare in the future.  

Wildcard - What if every young person had to visit a slaughterhouse as part of the school curriculum? 

The Global Order 

The future of animal wellbeing is intrinsically tied to the public's understanding and awareness of animal ethics and the systems that impact animal wellbeing. There are different possibilities for how education about animal welfare might be incorporated into school curricula, illuminating how differing approaches to education could significantly shape societal attitudes, policy decisions, and industry practices impacting animal welfare in the future.  

Wildcard - What if a new market for xenotransplantation (i.e. transplantation of organs or tissues from one species to another species) tourism emerged in another region? Could this be regulated? How would legislators react? 

​Macroeconomic Conditions

Macroeconomic uncertainty is high at present, with wide-ranging consequences for animals.  Macroeconomic stability can positively affect animal welfare by enabling greater financial resources for pet care, funding for conservation efforts, and innovation in animal welfare research and technologies. Conversely, it might negatively impact animal welfare if economic growth is prioritised over environmental sustainability, leading to habitat destruction, overexploitation of wildlife, and inadequate consideration for the welfare of animals in industrial farming and other sectors.  

Wildcard - What if animal welfare becomes a luxury belief for the 1%? What if only luxury brands offered high welfare animal products? What if there was a tax on companion animals? 

​Climate Change and Fragile Ecological Systems

Climate change will, of course, be one of the most significant drivers of change for every field over the coming decades, and its effect on animal wellbeing cannot be understated – from increasing temperatures causing health implications for many animals, to the destruction of habitats from extreme weather events. Whilst climate change’s impact on animals has already begun, how the UK and the world responds will ultimately shape the impact on animal wellbeing. This includes the scale of the transition to Net Zero, as well as the response to indirect impacts such as famines and increased climate migration.  

Wildcard - One whale can sequester 33 tonnes of carbon at the bottom of the sea upon death. What if whales were artificially bred to be carbon sinks in the fight against climate change? 

Animal Futures

Based on these drivers, the project developed five scenarios for the future of animal wellbeing. They primarily describe how animal wellbeing might develop in the UK, while taking into account global and regional trends.  These scenarios are not predictions. They are stories about what could be, designed to provoke thought and inspire action.  They illustrate how the choices we make today will have lasting implications for animals, humans, and the planet.

Tech-Centric

In this scenario, society successfully grips the challenges of climate change and redesigning the food system, primarily though rapidly accelerating the use of technology to solve these problems. Much of humanity is disconnected from nature. Our relationships with animals are transactional and decontextualised. 

• Humanity survives – but it is a less rich experience: Contact with and connection to nature and animals is a luxury for the privileged. Most children have never seen a pig or a chicken. Animals are something to be studied in textbooks or to be seen on VR headsets during History of the Natural World classes.  
• Food systems are automated and increasingly intensified: Farm animals, once freely grazing in the expanses of the British countryside, now live within mega-farms: enclosed, multi-tiered structures designed for the optimal use of space. Cows, pigs, and chickens are monitored continuously through sensors, ensuring they are free from diseases and growing at the desired rate.
• A mixed picture develops for wild and kept animals: Some ecosystems are abandoned by humans. They recover and restore themselves. Many forests and wild areas are privately owned, restricted 'Nature Luxe Zones', accessible only by those who can afford the high-priced tickets.
• Extinction is considered a ‘solved problem.’: By 2050, an animal genome bank is mostly complete. This means any species can undergo de-extinction at any time. Public concern for extinctions decreases, and few worry about the habitat losses that cause extinctions, or the context in which these restored animals might exist.
• The remaining pets have fantastic lives – in human terms: The richest in society have access to cloning and genetically modified exotic animals as pets. The market for pet medicine is huge, dogs receive the latest cancer treatments. People now commit to their pets for an extended period, often several decades, which influences lifestyle choices, housing, and long-term financial planning.
• Alternative companions emerge: Pressures on resources mean that few have the luxury to keep a dog or a cat. Instead, robotic pets with AI personalities are the trend. They offer companionship without the complication or the space requirement.

Eco Carnage

In this scenario, society fails to make substantial progress on addressing climate change. Animal welfare is all but forgotten. By 2050, cascading ecological disasters are putting most societies in a defensive crouch. In this scenario, the technological innovation required is either not developed, or not deployed at a scale to allow for successful adaptation to a changing climate.  

• Animal welfare falls down the agenda: With society more focussed on adaptation and preservation, there is little concern for animal welfare. Around the world, wild, farmed, and companion animals die in vast numbers. Waves of human migration to cooler parts of the planet mean companion animals are left to die or roam free. Food sovereignty is every government’s highest priority.  
• Ecosystems collapse: Rising sea levels, uncontrolled wildfires, and relentless droughts decimate habitats, leading to massive animal die-offs. For the animals that manage to survive these catastrophes, and as certain areas of the world become uninhabitable by humans, animals are able to adapt and create new ecosystems, to varying degrees of ecological richness and diversity.
• Food systems struggle: In some countries, farms, once full of livestock, lie abandoned. The animals that once lived there have either been consumed in a desperate bid for food or have perished due to lack of care. Insect protein begins to make up an increasing proportion of people’s diets. Many are vegetarian by necessity.
• Intensification and extinctions: The public become used to extinctions of species and express low levels of concern for farmed animals, who are now kept under ever more intensive and exploitative conditions. Cows face awful conditions in high-rise skyscrapers. Despite extinctions, big game hunting re-emerges as a luxury pursuit justified by its contribution to conservation.
• Animal violence cascades into human violence: Without the empathy generated by animal contact, people are more routinely violent to others. Law enforcement agencies observe a direct correlation between areas with high rates of animal cruelty and increased criminal activity. Children and adolescents exposed to frequent and casual instances of animal cruelty, whether in their neighbourhoods or in the media, tend to develop more aggressive and violent behaviours.
• People hold their pets tightly: People’s responses may be to hold their surviving pets even closer. Policy attempts to limit pet ownership for health, energy, or resource concerns meet with huge public outcry and resistance, as the pets represent a remaining source of hope and happiness in a difficult world.
• The policy environment is unstable: The policy environment is highly volatile, as politicians respond quickly and inconsistently to rapidly changing circumstances and unstable political coalitions. Meat taxes, import bans, pet culls, and animal protein laws are ruled out almost as quickly as they are proposed. No one can plan or anticipate the long term.
• The UK might be the least worst: In general, the UK is considered more tolerable than many parts of the world, both for humans and animals, but it is a bleak picture. 

Blinkered World

In this scenario, the efforts to redesign the food system and address climate change are not ambitious or cohesive enough to address the problem, but at least these efforts include a concern for animal wellbeing. The mood of society is defensive and isolationist. Society still cares about animal welfare, but in a selective way. People are proud that British animal welfare standards are considered the best in the world, but in practice most animal products are imported. 

• National exceptionalism and nostalgia thrive: Nostalgia in the face of adversity drives people towards a vision of life – and the animals within it – that calls back to previous ages of farming, wildlife, and pets. As the world's inability to collectively address global challenges increases, a sense of defensive exceptionalism grows in Britain. This belief extends to the treatment of animals.
• Government prioritises food sovereignty: To feed the population in a challenging geopolitical environment, the government is forced to do deals that allow low welfare food imports whilst the UK nominally retains some of the highest standards at home.
• Alternative proteins never happen: Health scares, public campaigning, and heavy-handed regulation mean that alternative proteins never catch on. They are characterised as ‘franken-foods’ and depicted as a fraud perpetrated by elites to force ordinary people to eat fake food.
• Urban farms demonstrate community resilience: In the face of global adversity, local communities develop strong bonds and mutual support networks. There are campaigns for urban farms. Sheep roam in community parks, chickens peck away in alleyways repurposed as communal coops, and city rooftops are transformed into beehives and butterfly gardens.
• Environmental and nationalist politics align: Climate change has significantly altered the UK's natural landscapes. Warmer temperatures and changed rainfall patterns have made the environment more suitable for certain species that were previously uncommon. Invasive jellyfish become a problem for farmed fish and are claimed to threaten the native salmon.
• Pet ownership increases: Pet ownership increases as people focus on what they can control in their surroundings, in the same way as the pandemic led to increased dog ownership. The public turn towards domestic animal issues, they are indifferent to farmed and wild animals. Companion animals are prized, especially British breeds.  
• Charities fragment and compete: More money than ever is given to animal charities, but these groups are fragmented and compete among themselves. Organisations divide into those more concerned with climate, or animal welfare, or biodiversity. 

One Planet

In this scenario, society grips the challenges of climate change and the food system through innovation and technology, but in a way that is inclusive of animal wellbeing issues, as well as broader environmental concerns about biodiversity, land use, and natural capital.  

• Interdependence is recognised: There is a deep recognition that the fates of animals and humans are strongly connected. There is a widespread awareness among both policymakers and the general populace that our detachment from the natural environment – based on the prevailing notion that nature exists merely for human exploitation, with no repercussions for humanity – is fundamentally responsible for our ecological dilemmas as well as various social issues.
• Technological change enhances animal wellbeing: Technology, alongside regenerative practices, are harnessed to increase animal wellbeing and biodiversity. There are trade-offs. Society must make difficult choices between food supply and biodiversity.
• Farming becomes an aspirational, respected technology-led career: Universities and colleges offer advanced degrees in agricultural technology. Farmers have lucrative careers, and hold a status similar to doctors or engineers, recognised for their contribution to society and the economy.
• Land use remains a source of tension: There is resistance and protest from some food producers. Traditional sheep farmers become figures of popular resistance as their land is claimed for rewilding and carbon sequestration projects.  Consumer adoption of alternative proteins is identified as a government priority, and supported and promoted.
• There is a “protein transition”: Initially, alternative proteins are adopted by manufacturers of processed food to produce new, cost-equivalent alternatives. Consumers of processed food are largely indifferent to the switch, and the overall nutritional impact is low. A variety of alternative proteins come to market leading to a decline in overall meat consumption without significant consumer activity. Higher welfare animal products remain.
• Ethical and practical dilemmas remain: Society stands at a crossroads, grappling with the ethical and logistical dilemma of what to do with the animals that were once reared for food. Debates ensue, with some advocating for sanctuaries where these animals can live out their days in peace, while others propose alternative roles for them in agriculture or even as companions.
• Animal sentience is recognised in law and culture: There are debates about the ethics of companion animals. The rights of animals are safeguarded, ensuring they are treated with the respect and dignity they deserve. This societal shift trickles down to everyday life, sparking discussions about the ethics of keeping pets. Is it right to confine a being, now legally recognised as sentient, for our own companionship? 

Animals Speak Up

The wildcard scenario asks, what if we’re wrong? What if there is an unexpected change in our attitudes to animals? In general, stakeholders in this process - even long-term animal welfare experts and campaigners – thought this shift unlikely.  However, if the way society thinks about animals became an area of primary concern, rather than a secondary consequence of the way we think about climate, food, health, and security, then the impact for animals could be profound.  

Imagine a new technology that allowed us to communicate directly with animals. Society could undergo a profound cultural shift. If society had an impetus to put a new emphasis on empathy and ethical consideration of animals, this could lead to changes in traditions, norms, laws, and values related to animal welfare. 

Comparison Table

Issues and Weak Signals

This section pulls together the trends, drivers, and weak signals of a range of animal wellbeing issues across all types of animals. It is not an exhaustive list but a starting point for discussion. 

Farmed Animals

• Global meat and dairy consumption - In 2020, the world produced 337 million tonnes of meat, up nearly 50% since the turn of the century and up 300% since 1970.
  • Adverts for meat products derived from industrial farming to be banned in Dutch city – is it possible for meat products increasingly to be viewed as public ‘bads’ like smoking and fast food?
• Industrialised farming practices - One billion animals are raised for food every year in the UK and across the world. Factory farming is commonplace across Latin America and Asia, as well as starting to occur in Africa.  This increase in intensive farming will cause billions more animals to suffer, with an estimated 94% of all animals raised for food already reared on factory farms.
  • Formation of Legal Impact for Chickens (an organisation that brings strategic lawsuits on behalf of farmed animals) – will legal challenges against intensive farming lead to new rights for farmed animals?
  • The rise of offshore fish farms – a step forwards or a backwards leap for animal-based food production standards?
• Alternative proteins (plant-based,  microorganism-based and animal-cell-based) -Approximately 13 million metric tons of alternative proteins were consumed globally in 2020,  equating to 2% of the animal protein market. One report predicts that alternative proteins will make up as much as 11% of the global protein market by 2035, which could rise as high as 22% if aided by regulatory and step changes in technology.
  • Precision fermentation platform for producing alternative proteins at scale raised $20m in seed financing – is an alternative-protein production revolution well and truly underway? Or is there a hype cycle?  
  • Tyson Foods, the world's second-largest processor and marketer of chicken, beef, and pork, describes itself as a “protein-focused food company” and has invested in alternative protein companies through its venture arm.
  • Tuggs was first launched in 2022 with the goal of offering consumers fresh, insect-based food tailored to their pets’ specific needs, while helping to lower the carbon footprint associated with owning a dog.
• Gene-edited livestock - Gene editing techniques have been applied to farm animals (in a laboratory setting) to make them resistant to certain diseases, to increase productivity, or for ‘welfare’ reasons (e.g. to create hornless cattle who will not have to undergo painful disbudding procedures).
  • In 2022, the US FDA announced that beef from gene-edited cattle was safe to eat, with the meat expected to be on the market in the next few years. The cattle were genetically engineered to grow shorter hair so they could better tolerate heat.
  • The Genetic Technology (Precision Breeding) Act, passed in England in 2023, will eventually enable gene edited farm animals to be created, and products made from them to be marketed, in England, Scotland and Wales. The secondary legislation, which should include animal welfare safeguards, is yet to be drafted.  

Companion Animals

• Advances in pet health care - Some studies report that over 50% of pet owners have  purchased tech just for their pet. This wearable tech collects a huge range of data which can then be used to improve health outcomes and potentially train further artificial intelligence tools.
• Climate change and companion animals - Several animal wellbeing organisations have already reported increasing incidences of dogs dying in hot cars. Global temperature increases are also correlated with dog bites and rabies infections in dogs.
• The ethics of companion animals - Some organisations are advocating for the prohibition of keeping animals as pets. Whilst currently an unpopular and uncommon view, any conversation regarding the granting of rights to animals has clear ramifications for pet ownership.
  • Study finds ‘personhood’ viewed as a spectrum with animals receiving high scores – is there a future where animals are regarded as possessing too much ‘personhood’ to breed, own, and control?
  • In Germany, the Dogs Act comes into law in 2023 which will introduce a batch of new regulations including the legal requirement to walk dogs for an hour every day – could similar regulations be introduced in the UK?
• Exotic animals as companion animals - Over the last 20 years, there has been a boom in exotic animals as companion animals. The wild animal protection charity Born Free estimates that there are nearly 4,000 dangerous wild animals that are being privately kept under licence in Great Britain.

Wild and Kept Animals

• Biodiversity loss - The UN’s Intergovernmental Science-Policy platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services forecasts that over one million animal and plant species are at risk of destruction. This includes 40% of all amphibian species, a third of all corals, and around one in ten insects. They project that one in six of all species will be at risk of extinction.
  • Wild animal suffering – Do humans have a moral duty to intervene in the suffering of wild animals we indirectly cause?
• De-extinction - Technological advances have given scientists the ability to turn science fiction into reality. The increasing threat of extinction for so many species has also given this field an impetus.
  • Biotech company plans to de-extinct the Tasmanian tiger – will ethical concerns prevent de-extinction ever happening?
• AI-facilitated non-human communication - Scientists are deploying artificial intelligence and machine learning to study and decipher animal communications. Large data sets of animal vocalisations are studied using algorithms to detect patterns. These algorithms are already able to distinguish between the voices of individual animals and able to detect whether a pig’s grunt is the result of joy or of stress. The hope of this field is to create one day a ‘Google Translate for Animals’.
  • Album of whale songs spearheaded global movement for commercial whaling ban – just how far-reaching would the consequences of humans being able to communicate with animals be?
• Animal testing - It is increasingly possible to replace, and avoid, animal use in research and testing with new non-animal technologies (NATs) and new approach methodologies (NAMs). For example, advanced cell cultures maintained outside the body, such as organs-on-chips and organoids, are increasingly available in biomedical research.
  • Pharmaceutical companies have finally committed to stopping harvesting blood from horseshoe crabs used to test vaccines for contaminants – where will innovation negate the need for animal use in other sectors?
  • Many countries, including Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand and the UK no longer use the (severe) Mouse Bioassay (MBA) test for routine toxicity testing of shellfish, as this can be replaced with sensitive analytical chemistry techniques. Should the ‘gold standard’ for replacement in toxicology be animal test data? Would different people have more trust in animal tests, or analytical chemistry?

Animal and Human Wellbeing

• Zoonoses - A zoonotic disease is one that can be transmitted to humans from animals. It is estimated that as many as 80% of new infections are derived from an animal source. Zoonotic transmission can occur from any contact between animals or animal derivatives and humans.
• Extinction of pollinators - The sixth mass extinction in Earth’s history is underway, including many pollinator species. Over 75% of leading types of global food crops rely to at least some extent on animal pollination, including 35% of global crop production being pollinator dependent.
• Antimicrobial resistance - The antibiotics used to treat a number of infections including pneumonia, tuberculosis, gonorrhoea, and salmonellosis are becoming less effective. A post-antibiotic era is possible in the future, where common infections and minor injuries would once again have the potential to become fatal. 

Social Movements and Animals

• Self-organising social movements - How people come together and mobilise around a cause is changing. Newer movements tend to be grassroots, decentralised, improvised, rapid, nonhierarchical, and are often ephemeral. They do not have an ‘institution’ at their centre. They are open and self-organising. Black Lives Matter and Extinction Rebellion are good examples.
  • Wave of UK anti-racism protests sparked by police killing of George Floyd – how can other social movements in the UK use this new form of decentralised activism? 

1. ^{^}

   Whilst it takes a global perspective on trends, it focuses on the UK.