A preliminary estimate, and a request for better ones.
Summary
I believe the standard literature estimates for the number of DALYs attributable to a case of stunting are too low, largely because they don’t account for the long term effects. This means that childhood nutritional interventions that reduce the prevalence of stunting may be substantially more cost-effective than previously believed.
Epistemic status
Exploratory and back-o...
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Subtitle: It’s a major warning shot, and might be the last one we get
All opinions are my personal view, and don’t represent my employer or fellow investigators.
This week, METR and Redwood Research published...
TL;DR: Kairos has raised $50 million from Coefficient Giving for two years of funding, one of the largest commitments they’ve made towards AI safety fieldbuilding to date. We’re using this to make an ambitious push for growing Kairos, broadening our portfolio of talent infrastructure projects and incubating new organizations. We’ve doubled in size in the last six mon...
My advice for smart young people just starting university in 2026: be warned -- if you don't graduate from college within the next four years, you risk getting stuck as a freshman forever, thus joining the ranks of the Permanent Underclassmen.
Pretty controversial. I'd like to see more of an argument and consideration of counterarguments. Or alternatively, constructive advice for how to avoid this.
Note this is a joke, a play on the word "underclass" versus "underclassMEN", which is a word used in anglo countries to refer to freshman and sophmores at university. I'm not actually a fan of the "permanent underclass" idea; I think it's dumb (basically for the reasons explained in the astral codex ten "permanent moon ownership" essay). Hence my attempt to make fun of the idea.
Oh - that went totally over my head 😅