-- UPDATE: We are now raising funding for this tournament. You can support here. --
I’m putting together a Metaculus forecasting tournament focused on key questions about the future of nonhuman animals. This will be the first animal-focused tournament on Metaculus. The aim is to generate probabilistic forecasts on developments that could significantly affect animals, from alternative proteins and animal welfare policy, to AI and wild animal welfare (not an exhaustive list). To leverage the collective knowledge within the animal advocacy community, I've decided to crowdsource these questions.
Why forecasting?
Forecasting can’t tell us exactly what will happen, but it can give us better estimates of the likelihood of plausible futures in short or long-term horizons. This can help with prioritisation and planning.
Many of the forecasters who would make predictions on these questions will be outside the animal movement, which means we’d get fresh perspectives and forecasts from a diverse set of people, and not just people within the movement. Ideally, the results will be useful to:
- Funders: funding allocation across interventions is more informed
- Researchers: clarifying which uncertainties are most decision-relevant
- Founders or people in strategic roles in animal organisations: they can use these forecasts to inform strategic direction of their organisations
A very high level theory of change on both an organisation level and the animal movement level is:
Better forecasts → better prioritisation of interventions/strategies → better outcomes for animals.
Example question and its relevancy to decision-making
One contributor suggested doing a forecast on the following question: By December 31, 2030, will plant-based meat alternatives account for at least 10% of total meat sales in the United States (by volume)?
The current penetration of plant-based meat alternatives is only about 1% of total meat sales, with growth having slowed in recent years. Hitting 10% would represent a shift from niche to mainstream adoption.
A forecast on this question could influence the following decisions:
- Funders might reconsider how much to invest in alt protein research, advocacy, or market development.
- Corporates could use forecasts to anticipate when a pivot away from conventional meat becomes economically necessary.
- Advocates might adjust their strategies for consumer adoption and corporate engagement.
The ask
If you have questions you’d like to see forecasted, including them in this tournament could be useful. Please use one of the following channels to submit them.
- The comments section of this post
- Message me directly on the EA Forum
- Email me at forecastingforanimals@gmail.com
To make the tournament as decision-relevant as possible, it would also be especially helpful if in your message/comment, you could add:
- Why you're submitting this question, and how this question could influence decisions (your own, or those of others you know in the animal movement)
- Your current (and/or past) level of involvement in the animal movement (e.g. funder, researcher, advocate, none/adjacent, etc.)
This extra context will help us prioritise which questions to include.
There is also a good chance I might need to workshop your original questions into a Metaculus-friendly version, so please keep an eye out for my response to you.
I love this idea! Some questions from me:
Some context: I work for an animal welfare-focused foundation and these are some things I've personally been interested in knowing about over the past 1-2 years!
Of less immediate practical relevance than other questions, but nonetheless interesting and not before discussed in this context (to my knowledge):
Will the first artificial conscious mind be determined to be:
here will not be any such determination by the resolution date(seems best to exclude this answer and have the question not resolve should this be the case, considering that it would dominate otherwise. A separate question on this would be better)Other
Also:
Hi Dylan, thanks for these questions.
To make the tournament as decision-relevant as possible, would you be able to add:
Hi Aditi! My current level of involvement in the animal movement isn't high enough to be very decision relevant.
As for others in the movement: The main appeal of the first question is to better draw out expectations about future moral patients. Might shed light on what the relative strength of given hypothetical sentience candidates in relation to each other are. My understanding is that the consensus view is that digital minds dominate far-future welfare. But regardless of whether that is the case, it's not obvious that will be the case without concerted efforts to design these minds as such. And if it is necessary to design digital minds for sentience, then we might expect that other artificial consciousnesses are created before that point (which may deserve our concern).
The last two questions are rough attempts to aid prioritization efforts.
1. Farmed animals receive very little in philanthropic funding; so relatively minor changes may matter a lot.
2. Holden Karnofsky in his latest 80k episode appearance said something to the effect that corporate campaigns had in his view some of Open Phil's best returns. Arguably, with less commitments being achieved overtime and other successes on the horizon (alt protein, policy, new small animal focused orgs), this could change. Predictions expecting that it will might in themselves help inform funders making inter cause prioritization decisions.
What's the global market size [or VC invested] of the black soldier fly farming industry by [year]?
What % of [Asian, African, South American] egg supply will be covered by a cage-free commitment by [year]? What % of production will be cage-free?
What % of egg supply [in the US, China, Europe, globally] will use in ovo sexing by [year]?
In kg/capita, what's meat consumption [and/or chicken, fish, shrimp consumption, data permitting] in [US, China, Europe, globally] by [year]? How many countries will have stable or declining meat consumption?
Will [major fast food chain, e.g. McDonald's] carry a vegan option in the US by [year]? (This might be tricky to operationalise)
Maybe 2030 or 2035 for the year but I don't have a strong opinion. +1 to all of James's questions too.
Hi Ben, thanks for these questions.
To make the tournament as decision-relevant as possible, would you be able to add:
I can imagine some of these forecasts influencing funding and advocacy decisions, especially on neglected species/regions and meat consumption. I'm an animal welfare researcher/advocate (currently, I work for Animal Ask and I'm co-founding the Center for Wild Animal Welfare). Sorry for a late reply!
Some questions from me:
Probability of blended meat options being introduced in X major restaurant chains by year Y
Level of government investment in alternative proteins by year X
Which precision fermentation / cultivated food ingredients will reach price parity of animal equivalents by year X
Submitting this question as a funder (early stage VC) that works in alt protein, and would influence areas to support and how to best help existing portfolio companies. Been working in this space for 5+ years and previously in broader animal movement as advocate.