I’m putting together a Metaculus forecasting tournament focused on key questions about the future of nonhuman animals.  This will be the first animal-focused tournament on Metaculus. The aim is to generate probabilistic forecasts on developments that could significantly affect animals, from alternative proteins and animal welfare policy, to AI and wild animal welfare (not an exhaustive list). To leverage the collective knowledge within the animal advocacy community, I've decided to crowdsource these questions.

Why forecasting?

Forecasting can’t tell us exactly what will happen, but it can give us better estimates of the likelihood of plausible futures in short or long-term horizons. This can help with prioritisation and planning. 

Many of the forecasters who would make predictions on these questions will be outside the animal movement, which means we’d get fresh perspectives and forecasts from a diverse set of people, and not just people within the movement. Ideally, the results will be useful to:

• Funders: funding allocation across interventions is more informed
• Researchers: clarifying which uncertainties are most decision-relevant
• Founders or people in strategic roles in animal organisations: they can use these forecasts to inform strategic direction of their organisations

A very high level theory of change on both an organisation level and the animal movement level is: 
Better forecasts → better prioritisation of interventions/strategies → better outcomes for animals.

Example question and its relevancy to decision-making

One contributor suggested doing a forecast on the following question: By December 31, 2030, will plant-based meat alternatives account for at least 10% of total meat sales in the United States (by volume)?

The current penetration of plant-based meat alternatives is only about 1% of total meat sales, with growth having slowed in recent years. Hitting 10% would represent a shift from niche to mainstream adoption.

A forecast on this question could influence the following decisions:

• Funders might reconsider how much to invest in alt protein research, advocacy, or market development.
• Corporates could use forecasts to anticipate when a pivot away from conventional meat becomes economically necessary.
• Advocates might adjust their strategies for consumer adoption and corporate engagement.

The ask

If you have questions you’d like to see forecasted, including them in this tournament could be useful. Please use one of the following channels to submit them. 

• The comments section of this post
• Message me directly on the EA Forum
• Email me at forecastingforanimals@gmail.com

To make the tournament as decision-relevant as possible, it would also be especially helpful if in your message/comment, you could add:

• Why you're submitting this question, and how this question could influence decisions (your own, or those of others you know in the animal movement)
• Your current (and/or past) level of involvement in the animal movement (e.g. funder, researcher, advocate, none/adjacent, etc.)

This extra context will help us prioritise which questions to include.

There is also a good chance I might need to workshop your original questions into a Metaculus-friendly version, so please keep an eye out for my response to you.