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Parent Topic: Forecasting

Metaculus is a reputation-based site for soliciting and aggregating predictions. It was founded in November 2015 by astrophysicist Anthony Aguirre, cosmologist Greg Laughlin and data scientist Max Wainwright.[1][2]


The official Metaculus tutorials[3] are suitable for beginners as a way to introduce forecasting, probability distributions, and a basic understanding of how to behave under uncertainty. 

Tutorial #1 is over-explaining for those with a basic understanding of the forecasting, but still a good introduction to using Metaculus specifically. 

For those familiar with forecasting, tutorials #2 and #3 are more useful as a (small) amount of calibration practice and building familiarity with the Metaculus interface. 

A video introduction to Metaculus is also available[4].


As of August 2022, Metaculus has received $5.6 million in grants from Open Philanthropy,[5] and over $300,000 from Effective Altruism Funds.[6]


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Posts tagged Metaculus