A technical note: Bayesianism is not logic, statistics is not rationality

jonathanstray

A technical note: Bayesianism is not logic, statistics is not rationality

jonathanstray

1 min read · Sep 6, 2016

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kierangreig🔸

Further, integrating probability and logic is a huge unsolved problem! We actually have very little idea how to combine our two greatest successes in formalizing rationality.

I think MIRI reported making a big breakthrough on this.

Coscott

And here it is: https://intelligence.org/2016/09/12/new-paper-logical-induction/

MichaelDickens

I don't think this sort of post is particularly relevant to the EA forum. It's about probability and logic, not altruism.

John_Maxwell

It feels to me like inclusion should be based on plausible impact, whether direct or indirect, rather than immediate apparent relevance to effective altruism. If this essay improves our thinking, and makes the effective altruist movement better at a rate that's comparable to the other stuff posted here, then it's a valuable post.

* I might be a little biased because I think EA should be prioritizing epistemic rationality much more highly.

RyanCarey

I agree with this pretty strongly. But also I think authors have to make an effort to bridge the gap with intermediate steps in their reasoning, rather than pouring unexplained insights - however genius they may be - onto a bewildered reader.

JesseClifton

Examining the foundations of the practical reasoning used (and seemingly taken for granted) by many EAs seems highly relevant. Wish we saw more of this kind of thing.

Owen Cotton-Barratt

It's a little indirect, but it's a link to a nice essay on a topic which is relevant when we get to the "working stuff out" side of effective altruism.

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