Hi, I’m Alex Zhu
This is a bit messy & I’m spending only 30 minutes on it since I haven’t had the time to do the analysis
TL;DR
I’m working on social connection as a cause in Baltimore, MD, and helping create a movement across the country to address the issue.
I need help doing a cost-effectiveness analysis on social connection in the style that AIM does!
I think social connection can be cost-effective.
More context!
I’m working on the Baltimore Chamber of Connection, in collaboration with the US Chamber of Connection to create civic infrastructure for social connection & address the loneliness epidemic. Things like welcoming newcomers to cities, creating Neighborhood Welcome Committees, holding club & organization fairs, organizing a network of community builders, holding Newcomers Night with Sports teams, and so on, focused on the Six Points of Connection and the research behind the Social Connection Index.
James Che has been telling me for a long time to do a cost-effectiveness analysis on social connection, and I’ve been putting it off, so I’m asking for help!
I would like to do an effective altruism style cost effectiveness analysis, like what Ambitious Impact does, on addressing loneliness and all of the areas it impacts, such as health, well being, economic opportunity, civic engagement, etc. I’d want to consider DALYs, QALYs, WELLBYs, and other models!
Why do I believe social connection can be a highly cost-effective cause area?
It’s high impact: individual health alone should be convincing. If you experience social isolation it’s as deadly as smoking a pack of cigarettes a day. If tobacco policy changes can be cost-effective interventions, then social connection ones should be too.
If we focus specifically on newcomers initially, they experience an acute period of social isolation that can be targeted and addressed through pairing them with a Baltimore Ambassador, or holding a Welcome Day event in their neighborhood or at a local business they pass by.
Beyond that, there’s mental health & wellbeing effects.
There's societal wellbeing, like trust in neighbors, fellow Americans, institutions, correlation to civic activities like volunteering and voter participation. For those EAs who care about preserving democracy, this is in that same cause-space.
There’s economic improvements, especially from connections across differences like class, from increased social capital, economic opportunity, increased future earnings. There is an economic development argument in the realms of research by Raj Chetty and those folks. Organizations like Thread in Baltimore do incredible work at creating these connections across difference & improving outcomes of high school kids in the lowest quartile of their year by GPA (they’ve done RCTs that show their program is causal in improvements, numbers I recall seeing go from 9% graduation rate without a Thread family structure to 65% graduation rate with one)
For longtermists too! I used to work in pandemic prevention policy. Trust is a barrier in taking vaccines, wearing masks, coordinating and agreeing on mitigation efforts like lockdowns. If we can get people interacting with and trusting their neighbors, participating in those institutions, and feeling more agency, then we will be much better at responding to pandemic-level threats.
We can communicate better with people if we have public health connections with trusted communicators, and it’s best to create those connections before an emergency rather than during.
For spreading EA too! I think EAs really inherently understand the value of social connection. At conferences, 1:1s are heavily prioritized. EAs are hyper-networked. People live in group homes and gather frequently, not only because it’s good for the cause, dissemination of ideas, innovation, etc, but it feels good! I learned of EA from a friend. I’ve gotten others to join the EA world who were first my friends, then we had a conversation about EA.
Tractability: in many ways, it’s so so so easy. Literally everybody can do something about social connection & most people understand and can relate to it as an issue. Most people have experienced loneliness in their life. Half of all Americans have experienced it in the past year. You can invite your friends over, you can text someone you are thinking about. You can host a party. You can knock on your neighbor’s door. You can have small-talk with a stranger at the grocery store.
As far as building social connection infrastructure & movement-building: It doesn’t cost a lot to fund a Chamber of Connection. In Seattle, the Allen Family Foundation has funded the Seattle Chamber of Connection $250k for its next year.
The good thing is, so many people and organizations are doing things related to related work already, people are organizing clubs out of their own passion, it is a natural human inclination and it is necessary for human wellbeing. We just need to create the connective tissue to amplify those things, make it easier to go out to a social activity rather than stay home on the phone or TV.
The US Chamber of Connection survey noted that some of the most-cited barriers to not connecting are “don’t know where to start,” “don’t want to go alone,” and “too tired / busy.” Those are mostly tractable problems.
It’s neglected: We (societally) don’t resource the area. It’s not considered a field at all. We don’t fund organizations specifically focused on social connection. Sure, we put lots of philanthropic funding into organizations that do something related to this (i.e. third spaces), but there’s no concerted effort to build the infrastructure to allow people to connect. We just assume that it will happen, and in some regards, it still does, however it’s been declining for the past few decades, even before the pandemic.
Meanwhile, the competition, the Facebooks, TikToks, Netflixs of the world (and now OpenAIs and Anthropics), are spending probably hundreds of millions on employing data engineers & psychologists to figure out the best ways to keep you addicted to your phone or stay in your home. If we spent a fraction of that on building tools to connect as humans, what could it look like?
What would it look like if it were not neglected? As soon as you move to a new city or town, you’re greeted by a neighbor in-person. They tell you about all of the things you need to know, all the things you can get up to, and everything you need to fall in love with your new home. You can attend welcome days at local businesses and arts/culture institutions. There’s a comprehensive map / calendar / list of the events & clubs that you could go to. Your neighbor holds a block party or invites you to a potluck dinner or has a standing weekly or monthly social gathering for newcomers to meet long-timers.
There’s a club & activities fair (just like when you went to college), but for adults. Silent book clubs, run clubs, dance groups, improv, choirs, neighborhood associations, political advocacy groups, whatever your interests are, it’s there. And if it’s not there, there’s someone who holds a session on how to start your own club or event!
If you wanted to, you could spend no time at all alone in your life (which is my dream, as a 99th percentile extrovert).
Other specifics for the CEA:
I’d guess that a Baltimore Chamber of Connection can initially affect 20,000 people in the first year, with all the various activities, and would cost $225,000 to pay two FTEs.
The city population is around 570k and greater Baltimore area is 2.86 million.
Rates of social isolation are hard to find, but you can probably assume it’s the same as the national.
Want to help? Want to chat? Want to fund this? Message me!
