This is a linkpost for https://forecasting.substack.com/p/forecasting-newsletter-for-november
Highlights
- PredictIt nears its probable demise
- American Civics Exchange offers political betting to Americans using weird legal loophole
- Forecasting community member Avraham Eisenberg arrested for $100M+ theft (a).
- Forecasting Research Institute launches publicly
- Blogpost suggests that GiveWell use uncertainty, wins $20k
- Contrarian offers $500k bet, then chickens out
- Walter Frick writes a resource to introduce journalists to prediction markets
- Yearly feedback form
Why this might be of interest to EAs: Forecasting is a tool to better understand the world. EAs are generally interested in that tool, particularly as it related to using it to improve the world. As such, developments in forecasting as a field might also be of interest. For example, in this edition I briefly review Open Philanthropy's grant of $8M given to INFER.
Link to the post: <https://forecasting.substack.com/p/forecasting-newsletter-for-november>.